Back in February, I penned a story about the electoral college, and how Obama had a lead over then presidential candidate Mitt Romney. Now that Romney is the Republican nominee, (and doing a horrible job), time to update my figures on the race.
Obama states; Maine, New Hampshire, Vermont, Massachusetts, Connecticut, Rhode Island, New York, Pennsylvania, Delaware, New Jersey, DC. Maryland, Virginia, Illinois, Michigan, Ohio, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa, Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada, Washington, Oregon, California and Hawaii. 25 states plus DC. 303 electoral votes
Romney states; Alaska, Montana, Utah, Wyoming, Idaho, Arizona, North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Arkansas, Missouri, Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina, Tennessee, Kentucky, Indiana and West Virginia. 24 states, 206 electoral votes
Tossup states; Florida. 1 state, 29 electoral votes.
Now, things can change, but as of right now, Romney has quite an uphill battle on his hands. Obama definitely had the advantage. Romney must change the narrative, or he’s a certain loser. Judging by what he’s done so far, it doesn’t look good for ole Mittens.
Interesting – are you pretty confident about Virginia?
Yes I am. Every poll I’ve seen, excluding Rasmussen, which skewers Republican, has Obama ahead.
Indeed, one of the things I’ve noticed is that there are only a few states that could potentially switch like North Carolina or Ohio. It appears that a large majority of voters have essentially already made up their minds for Obama and nothing short of a major collapse on his part will make them change their minds.
This also explains much of the Republican strategy. They have a weak hand and know it, so there’s more energy into voter suppression and pandering to the base than there is in promoting Romney. There’s more money going into Super Pacs than to Romney himself. I believe that towards the end the struggle will be for the Republicans to stave off disaster and plead for their base to actually turn out and keep Indiana or North Carolina from voting for Obama again.