and I just might swing the Commonwealth of Virginia’s 13 electoral votes to Barack Obama on Election Night.
That’s according to Elizabeth Dias’ article* in Time, which notes “Goode is pulling fully 9% of Virginia’s vote, according to a mid-July Public Policy Polling survey, leaving Obama ahead of Romney 49% to 35%. In a tight election where Virginia’s 13 electoral college votes could make or break the Romney’s candidacy, even 2% for Goode could pull enough Republicans away to hand the historically red state to Obama in November.”
So imagine this scenario: early returns are coming in on Election Night and it looks good for Republicans. Behind a strong turnout from central and southern Virginia (Goode’s home base), George Allen has upset Tim Kaine to retake one of the four seats Republicans need to gain control of the Senate. In Massachusetts, Scott Brown is holding a slim lead over lefty favorite Elizabeth Warren.
Obama’s electoral majority from 2008 is shrinking rapidly as New Hampshire, North Carolina and Florida all go Republican. Romney also is projected to win Indiana, Ohio and Wisconsin.
But Obama clings to narrow leads in Iowa, Pennsylvania and Michigan (where white working-class voters vote for the president who saved the auto industry, and Arab-Americans in and around Dearborn turn out in record numbers to vote against the candidate who called Palestinian culture inferior). With 270 electoral votes needed for victory, Obama secures 271 when he wins Virginia by a slim margin, thanks to Virgil Goode (ex-Democrat, ex-Independent, ex-Republican) of the Constitution Party taking 2% of the vote away from Romney.
Is this a likely scenario? No. Is it possible? Yes, and that’s why it’s the kind of thing that gives campaign organizers and strategists nightmares.
Romney faces what any Republican nominee would face this year: an uphill battle in the electoral college. Anything, even Virgil Goode and the Constitution Party, that threatens a Republican majority in even one swing state is cause for serious concern at Romney campaign headquarters in Boston.
*h/t: Savvy Political Observer
crossposted at: http://masscommons.wordpress.com/
