Mitt Romney will announce his running mate early tomorrow morning. Rumors are rampant that his choice will be Rep. Paul Ryan of Wisconsin. However, it would be a major show of lack of discipline if they spoiled the surprise, so don’t buy into it just yet. Picking Paul Ryan would appear to be an act of hara-kiri. The Ryan Budget plan polls so badly that the Democrats discovered they couldn’t effectively use it to campaign because people simply refused to believe that a major political party would suggest something so awful. But they will believe it if Paul Ryan is on the ticket. All we will talk about for the next 90 days is Ryan’s plan to voucherize Medicare and hand every senior a bill for $6,000. And older Americans are really Romney’s only area of strength. Picking Ryan runs the serious risk of losing his strongest base of support. It could cause a complete collapse in his polling numbers and move seemingly safe Republican states into the Democrats’ column. Forget winning Florida.
It’s not that Ryan is a terrible candidate in terms of his personality or his ability to communicate effectively. He brings some positive attributes to the table. But people don’t like his budget plan at all. His biggest upside is that he will excite a segment of the highly-engaged Republican base. But they are pretty amped already. If he picks Ryan, it will be very reminiscent of the Palin pick, in the sense that McCain ultimately decided it would be better to please the base than to move to the center.
Ryan could have some hiccups once he sees the spotlights, but he won’t implode like Palin. He’ll give Romney a jolt of energy that will carry through to the convention. But he will be blasted into oblivion by the Obama machine once it becomes time to hold the Democratic Convention.
I’m not convinced that Ryan will really be the pick. But, if he is, we really have an opportunity to turn this election into a total rout.