After I saw it reported that Romney and his associated Super PACs are pulling out of Michigan and Pennsylvania, I had to go look up when McCain gave up on Michigan in 2008. I remembered the decision because Sarah Palin responded by going deeply off-message.
Palin told Fox News’ Carl Cameron that she disagreed with the McCain campaign’s decision to pull its advertising and staffers out of Michigan, effectively ceding the state to Barack Obama.
“I fired off a quick email and said, ‘Oh, come on. You know, do we have to? Do we have to call it there?'” Palin said.
The date that article was published? October 3, 2008.
So, Romney is conceding Michigan a full month earlier than McCain conceded it. Is that a sign that I am right that this election will not be closer than the 2008 election? I think it could be.
It should be remembered that McCain was financially strapped in a way that Romney and his billionaire backers simply are not. Romney (and Karl Rove and the Koch Brothers) has much more money to throw around. He can afford to waste it on long shots. McCain could not.
As for Pennsylvania, McCain never gave up because he couldn’t have possibly won the election without carrying the Keystone State.
By pulling out of Pennsylvania and Michigan so early, Romney has lost any margin of error. He can only win now by the narrowest of margins. He is literally on the cusp of defeat.
It also reveals their understanding that unlimited advertising spending alone cannot win a state.
Seriously, I’m not a TV watcher but when I’ve been in public places with a TV and political ads come on it seems like everyone turns away, regardless of the topic.
I think political TV ads may have become nothing but white noise.
Definitely a sign that Romney path to 270 is incredible narrow. I’m playing with the scenarios and 270towin.com. If Obama holds VA, NV, CO, and WI, taking PA and MI for granted, he can win without any of FL, OH, IA, NC, and NH. Pretty remarkable.
Who would have thought that the GOP could win BOTH FL and OH and still find themselves losing?
I know that Rove’s operation pulled out of PA, didn’t know that Willard himself has. So glad I won’t see any more of that crap on TV,
Oh the heartbreak! Besides, the land of just-right trees is the only state willing to declare that the Romneys are Real Americans.
Sometimes I wonder if I can bear to watch the rest of this absurdity, but I think I probably can. Smells like napalm in the morning.
“Smells like napalm in the morning.”
Not to mention that someone somewhere has got to be stealing our “precious bodily fluids”.
Damn, this would be a perfect time for Author Gilroy’s performance art.
Well…how ’bout this?
Don’t count your chickens before they are hatched.
Believe it.
If this is a sign of defeat, great. Make it a big defeat.
And if it’s not? If it’s part of some Rovian plan to steal the whole shebang somehow?
You’re in a fight.
Keep your guard up until the fat lady sings.
And if she sings the wrong tune? Like she did in the vote fraud elections of 2000 and 2004?
Smack her this time..
Smack her.
AG
Good Work!
That’s quality work right there!
So ….
Do we get to ask for Mitt’s Birth Certificat now?
Have they given up on the possibility that voter suppression will deliver Pennsylvania for them? Or are they confident enough that it will that they’re putting their money elsewhere?
While voter suppression tactics are concerning, the fear that millions of people will be disenfranchised in Pennsylvania is not an objective assessment of the problem.
I would think that pulling out ad money is an acknowledgement that voter suppression will be insufficient to carry the state. Voter suppression can make up a few points, not more.
Maybe they think the money would be more effectively spent on their voter suppression program.
Yeah, who was that state pol again who guaranteed that the Voter ID laws would help Romney carry PA?
Might explain why there’s so much TV MSM hand-wringing. They were counting on a few extra hundred million bucks flowing their way from the rightwing oligarchs trying to push Mitt over the finish line. Now time for some of them to cut a new deal just as Adelson did when Newt couldn’t get ‘er done.
Maybe thery’re cutting ’cause the rubes are finally wise and they ain’t shelling out no more.
It’s still going to get spent. Just not all going to be spent in the places they thought. I’ll give you an example. Here in Philly, the local NBC station is owned by Comcast/G.E.(the parent company). The parent company only owns stations in certain locations these days(think extra-large cities like NYC & LA). So Comcast/G.E. loses out because CA & NY aren’t competitive and Willard & Co is now leaving PA(Philly market among them).
Less will be spent as the money will flow to those less expensive media markets to secure the GOP hold on the House and cut the DEM margin in the Senate. Has happened every time after 1992 when the Clinton faction of the DEM party is in charge.
Perhaps the RNC and Republican SuperPACs will place their bet on winning both the Senate and the House race and block the Obama presidency of gaining any results in the next four years. Their policy: chaos and destruction. They can always play the impeachment card … the days of the mid 90s will return. And Congress controls the money spigot.
Probably not so much Romney as his billionaire backers, who have decided their pockets are not bottomless for a gormless mook after all. I still think that giving up on Mitt was the reason he was directed by his betters to put Ryan on the ticket STAT, not so much to win this one as to set up the next one. While it’s true that those billions will come in handy downticket, withdrawing from states they might have been expected to contest will make Obama’s coattails all the more potent. Why would winger voters who are already iffy about Mitt come out to vote at all if it looks like the money guys are no more than iffy about him either?
Something like that, yeah. Maybe the lackluster of Tampa, Clinton’s speech and Castellanos’ blurtout were the final wake-up calls. “This dude’s hopeless. But we can still destroy congress.”
Follow the Money out of town must be shaking the campaigns of the down ticketers in PA and MI today.
WTF! The Romney camp really have NOTHING to combat Bill Clinton’s barn burner last night. They made the strategic mistake of complimenting Clinton and raising him as a good Dem vs Obama that they forgot A)unlike Reagan, Bill Clinton is still alive and B)unlike GWB, Bill Clinton is still active in politics and still loves the game and relishes being on scene and C)unlike the RNC, the Dems still like their former Presidents
oh please.
Romney camp just released a new video with Bill Clinton. This is just sad, is this all they got!
http://livewire.talkingpointsmemo.com/entry/new-romney-ad-features-bill-clinton
Wow. Given how much money they have, I find it hard to believe they would pull out of Michigan. Perhaps they realize that the only purpose of that money was to make Obama to spend money on defense–and he’s not taking the bait.
I wonder where all that money will go? Presumably FL, VA, NC, OH. Romney cannot win without Florida, and pretty much cannot win without OH. What do you think?
If Romney loses Ohio, he can still get to 273 by winning Colorodo, Iowa, Wisconsin, Virginia, North Carolina, Indiana, and Florida.
Flip it so Romney wins Ohio but loses Florida and he would have to win New Hampshire and New Mexico, too.
But when your grasp for victory involves Wisconsin and New Mexico, you are down to your last fingernail.
Romney needs both Ohio and Florida, plus Virginia and New Hampshire. If he can pull that off, he’ll get in exactly 270 votes.
He’s literally on the cusp of defeat.
I just can’t see RyanRom winning Ohio. He really has nothing to sell them — the two conventions demonstrated that. Colorado, Iowa, maybe WI seem like very long shots. FL will be anybody’s guess right up to the end. VA, IN, NC are probably RyRom’s best bet, but won’t be enough. So yeah, we’re at a point where Obama’s winning “barring unforeseen circumstances”.
BTW, when you speak of a not-close election are you talking electoral or including popular votes?
Disagree on VA. Polls are showing Obama doing well there.
NC is a true tossup, and I bet IN goes to Romney.
If IN goes to Obama this will be an epic blowout election all the way down the ticket.
Wisconsin feels like its trending against us in the long term. MN as well but much slower.
I don’t think a grasp for victory involving Wisconsin is that out of line, especially with Ryan. It probably won’t work, but it might. New Mexico though, New Mexico is right out.
How in all hells did it get a Republican Governor anyway?
I grew up in Minnesota, have lots of friends and family in Minnesota, and I still don’t get what’s going on in the state. Agree that it is trending against Democrats but the reason why it is doing so is not clear to me.
Isn’t Minnesota mostly white? That’s the impression I always got on business trips and vacations.
I am the same as jwb, grew up there, have lots of friends and family in MN. I get the sense it’s social issues in that things are just changing too fast for comfort.
But it also seems to me that the DFL is just stuck in the past. It still operates sometimes like one of the old party machines so that it’s not nimble enough or energetic enough to compete as well it used to back a few decades. That’s simply born of a history of success in the state.
MN is 84-87% white, so less than the country. It’s possible that’s in that stage where minorities are now large enough to be a threat but still too small to prove decisive in elections. In 2008 you saw that states with very low minority populations and high populations would go for Obama in primaries. States where they were in the teens tended to go to HRC. Then it’s just a furthering of a rural/urban divide.
Illinois is much the same. We need party reform badly.
Romney isn’t going to win New Mexico. They know it, having yanked money from Heather Wilson’s campaign for our open Senate seat.
Hee! From the comments on the TPM story:
I noticed that Nate Silver doesn’t even have Michigan and Pennsylvania on his list of swing states anymore. I think he must have pulled them a week ago. Every major swing state except Florida is giving Obama a chance of winning it that is above 70%. Florida is at a 63% chance of victory. Only NC does not have Obama favored to win.
I hope your prediction is right! Can’t wait for Obama tonight. The media has set up this “It’s going to be hard for Obama to top Clinton” narrative, typically underestimating him, but he is going to top Clinton, and hopefully put democrats on a path to swat down the lies.
And how will Romney sustain the lies during the debates? That will be interesting. No wonder he’s taking a whole month to prepare.
“And how will Romney sustain the lies during the debates?” He won’t be able to, though he will try. The entirety of their case against Obama is lies against a strawman. I have it on reliable authority that the real Obama will show up, and school him the way he did the republican caucus at their retreat in 2009.
I have to admit I tingle at the thought. Mitt is in a terrible box. If he tries to leave the lies behind, the base will scream bloody murder – because they believe all those lies. And if he continues the lies, well ….
Not only that. If he tries to leave the lies behind — he’s got nothing. Nada. Zip.
I think he’ll try just to hurl so many lies and nothings that Obama will have to spend all his time saying “that’s a lie and here’s why…”
As we now know when someone says “Obama’s a secret Muslims!” and someone responds “Obama’s not a secret Muslim!” What people here is “Obama. Secret. Muslim.” and the association is born in their heads.
I don’t think it will work, but I’m pretty sure that’s what will happen.
If he tries, Obama should counter each one with a simple, “You’re a liar”. I don’t think Romney would like that at all.
I was wondering about this too. He’s not only going to have to lie about the lies he already said, he’ll have to come up with more lies.
I just wish there was a way to sink House Republicans.
Romney camp’s worst nightmare? Clinton To Tour Midwest For Obama
An itinerary for the president’s most effective supporter.
Methinks that Romney “Clinton” ad from this morning was probably not a great idea.
I’m not buying it, although I’m a little surprised about Pennsylvania.
It doesn’t make sense for Obama to devote resources to Georgia and Arizona, because any scenario where Obama carries those states is one where he has enough electoral votes without them. It doesn’t make sense for Romney to devote resources to Pennsylvania and Michigan for the same reason. He doesn’t need them.
The election will be decided in FloridaOhioVirginiaIowaWisconsinColoradoNevada. That’s where all the money will go.
Sounds like a bad move on the reps part. Giving up on MI and PA is ceding 237 electoral votes to team O, implying that Romneybot needs 79 more electoral votes out of those swing states left, vs O’s 33. Very tough 2:1 ratio there. Romneybot with have to pretty much sweep the table in the swing states to win. I don’t see that happening.* I think he’s going to lose Ohio, and probably Virginia too. He may lose them all except for MO, AZ and NC.
Plus there’s O’s coattails in those states to consider. Stabenow will probably have an easier time in the PA senate race now, same goes for other downticket races.
*as always, barring some unforeseen catastrophe
They want to save the money for the congressional races. That’s where they can do some serious damage.
Romney cedes Ohio TV airwaves to Obama (at least for now)
http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-pn-romney-obama-ohio-ads-20120906,0,4157574.story
Will this induce the Dems to pull back there too? If so, what about the chance that the Reps jump back in later with massive media and catch them off guard? If they canceled their ad buys, how easy is it to make new buys later? What’s the timing?
Romney and Rove are actually smarter than the Chicago gang…they’re poised for a knockout. If true, it tells me they are focusing with laser-beam focus on where they KNOW they can win…a prize fighter carefully aims his punches.
How did you guys like Romney’s jump in like ability in two separate polls? He’s in positive territory now, and actually leads in one (CNN and ABC and some newspapers)…I guess Ann did her job!
BTW…”Government is the only thing we all belong to”!!!???!!!???
You boo God and Israel? That should help Allen West retain his seat!
Good Work!
Be sure to be here the night of Nov 6 so I can drink some delicious tears.
Here’s my guarantee… Obama will not receive more than percentage point higher vote total on election night than his approval rating…if the election was held TODAY, and undecideds were forced to decide, Obama garners no higher tha 48.7–he loses.
What I cannot guarantee is his approval rating on election day…shit happens!
Wish I had a crystal ball…I’d make big bucks on In-Trade!
hmmmmmm….46%? 3 days ago.
Last I saw, the approval rating was 52%. So your saying that Obama won’t get more than 53% of the popular vote? Sounds about right to me.
This could very well be an adjustment to save resources for a latter huge ad campaign closer to the election just to not oversaturate the media too early.
Perhaps. It suggests to me, however, that their resources are not unlimited.
That’s my suspicion. Also, their polling might have found that voters are sick and tired of the ads, and they’re alienating the independents they need.
A little too early. Who knows what they’re doing. But PA is not a toss-up, it’s barely in play. MI was never anywhere near in play. It might have been a state to spend money in a shared market of WI and OH or something, but please…