If you skim down to the bottom of this article, you will find something remarkable and newsworthy. The Obama campaign has an internal poll that shows them leading in Arizona. And they are somewhat perplexed about it because they would obviously like to win the state if it is within reach, but they don’t want to overextend themselves and risk losing their lead in the states he needs for victory. No one has really been talking about Arizona as a possible pick-up, but the most recent public poll of the state (from Purple Strategies) only has Obama down by three points. The most recent non-Rasmussen poll of the Senate race in Arizona has the Democrat, Richard Carmona, a single point behind the Republican, Jeff Flake. And that poll is now old enough that it is entirely reasonable to assume that Carmona has moved ahead. After all, Romney has been sinking like a stone over the last three weeks, and that isn’t good for the other Republicans on the ballot.
Personally, I think it is important to do more than just try to win with the same map from 2008, minus Indiana. I expected (and predicted) that other states would come into play as Romney melted down under the heat of the campaign. Arizona is the first new state to get within striking distance, and the Obama campaign should put in some resources now while there is still time to shift them back out if the key battlegrounds start trending badly. We need that Senate seat very badly. With six-year terms, any gettable Senate seat has to be strongly contested. Carmona is doing very well and he could use the boost from a winning top of the ticket.
What the Obama campaign’s ambivalence tells us is that we probably cannot expect them to make a strong play for several more states, even if they come into view. They may make a play for Arizona, but it doesn’t seem like they’re going to get too cocky. That, more than anything else, is what the outside money is doing. It’s limiting Obama’s upside by forcing him to stay in the battlegrounds.
But it may not matter. Obama will win California without making much of an investment. He can win other states without investing, too, if Romney doesn’t arrest his downward slope soon.