If you can believe the Democrats’ internal polls, Heidi Hetkamp is on pace to retain Sen. Kent Conrad’s North Dakota seat. There are a lot of close Senate races this year, but it looks like the Democrats are ahead in Massachusetts, Connecticut, Virginia, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Indiana, Michigan, Wisconsin, Missouri, North Dakota, and Nevada, and Angus King has the advantage in Maine. The Arizona race is too close to call. Other than Pennsylvania, none of these races are in the bag, but we could be looking at a really strong result on election day.
Currently, the Dems have 53 senators caucusing with them. If things stand as they are, the Dems would lose their seat in Nebraska, but pick up seats in Maine, Massachusetts, Indiana, and Nevada. That would be a three-seat pick up. Winning Arizona would make it a four-seat pick up. The Dems could wind up with 56 or 57 seats. Add in that Joe Lieberman will be replaced by an actual Democrat, and the shift is even better.
Women would have something to celebrate, too. We could add the following women to the Senate:
Deb Fischer (R-NE)
Elizabeth Warren (D-MA)
Tammy Baldwin (D-WI)
Heidi Heitkamp (D-ND)
Shelley Berkley (D-NV)
Mazie Hirono (D-HI)
Of course, the Senate is losing Olympia Snowe and Kay Bailey Hutchison, both of whom will be replaced by men. By that’s still a potential net addition of four women to the upper body. That three of them are strong progressives is a big plus, too.
I should have added that Jon Tester of Montana is in a real fight and could easily lose. That would be a shame because he’s a good fit for his state and has represented them well. Adding him into the mix makes it a little less likely that the Dems can get to 57 seats.
The last race to keep an eye on is Nebraska. I don’t think Bob Kerrey can pull it off, but it’s not impossible. I hear he had a good debate, for what it’s worth.
In any case, the assumption has been that the Dems would lose control of the Senate. That is still a real possibility. But it’s actually looking more likely right now that the Dems will add a seat or two or four.
That’s a testimony to the compelling nature of Mitt Romney’s campaign themes.