I decided to check out the math in the post at National Review and it checks out. My numbers are a little different because more votes have been entered into the system since Jeff Dobbs did his calculations, but the results are about the same. Assuming Rasmussen Polls is correct that, in North Carolina, Obama will win only 4% of registered Republicans, only 84% of registered Democrats, and only 36% of Independents, then Obama’s early voting lead in the Tarheel State is a paltry 22,043 votes. And, if that is the case, it is probably accurate to say that Obama is trailing in North Carolina by a 52%-46% margin. However, Public Policy Polling has the race tied 48-48.
Now, PPP says that Obama is up big among early voters.
Obama has built up a lead over the first week of the early voting period in the state. Among those who say they’ve already voted he’s at 57% to 42% for Romney. Romney achieves the overall tie because of a 50/45 advantage among those yet to vote.
Yet, among the 991,788 people who have voted, only 502,837 (50.7%) of them are registered Democrats. For Obama to be up to 57%, he would have to be absolutely slaughtering Romney with independents, rather than losing them by 23% points as Rasmussen asserts.
Here’s what we know. So far, 200,000 more Democrats have voted than Republicans. If I simply substitute PPP’s estimate of the Independent vote for Rasmussen’s and keep everything else the same, Obama’s early voting lead would jump from 22,043 to 57,469. That would reflect an electorate where 17% of registered Democrats vote for Romney, Independents are split, and Romney gets 94% of registered Republicans’ votes. In a state like North Carolina, I don’t think those are unreasonable assumptions.
The troubling thing is that Democratic turnout has dropped off dramatically in the last three days relative to Republicans and Independents. Having 200,000 more Democratic votes sounds great, but it probably isn’t adding up to that big of a lead right now. MattTX has Obama with 104,000 votes in the bank. Jeff Dobbs has Obama with about a 12,000 vote advantage. I think the truth is closer to 60,000. I don’t know if that will be enough, but it could be if it continues to grow. Unfortunately, that is not the trend line so far this week.
As I suggested a few threads ago, the early voting numbers may simply be Democrats shooting their bullets early so that they just run out faster ran than having more bullets.
Yes the analogy sucks, but I couldn’t think of a better way to phrase it off the top of my head.
a good question is how many voters didn’t cast their ballot last year because the lines were too long on/near election day and figured that Obama was going to win anyway, so what’s the point?
Are there more people now showing up early as a result of those long lines and complacency 4 years ago and realizing that their vote is important?
I’m not sure I follow. I assume you are talking about the last presidential election year.
2008 was about the least complacent election. Everyone wanted to be a part of history, the economy was Republi-canned. I don’t think there were a lot of people who gave up. Not unless conditions were truly bad. I have a hard time seeing people voting in 2012 that didn’t in 2008 because of complacency.
Shoot the bullet NOW. On Election Day, there may be a snowstorm or it may be raining tremendously. Turnout on Election Day is always weather-related.
In 2004, voting machines in OH were apportioned to polling places based on registration – republican areas got more. Lines in Democratic areas were very long, and some were still voting at 2AM. Kerry lost due to OH, and it was not by much.
Weekend-weekday effect?
I dunno, haven’t looked at the results very carefully.
Look at the first graph here. Not the first chart, the first graph. Voting went down over the weekend but it didn’t really go back up much for the Democrats after the weekend.
Meanwhile, things still look very promising in Nevada.
This is evidence PPP is wrong about the people who have already voted, but:
Not good news, though.
Really good news from Nevada, though, from the analysis I have seen on early voting.
there’s a lot of good news on early voting.
Link doesn’t work.
Maybe I’m missing the larger strategy, but why do you even care about North Carolina? Chest-thumping?
Do you think that if you can “prove” Obama will win NC again, then that seals the election?
North Carolina is thoroughly irrelevant. The President’s floor is 290 electoral college votes. Floor. The worst he can do is several states above the needed 270.
This thing is OVAH.
mainly I am looking for clues in the NC early voting patterns that will help me understand turnout nationally.
Of course NC is irrelevant for who wins the election. It’s just interesting, for two reasons:
(1) to see how effective Obama’s ground game is, as compared with the polls; and
(2) because there is every reason to think that NC is gradually moving into the D column, and interesting to see how close they can get this time. Something like VA and CO, only not quite.
Oh, and also another reason — to help down-ticket races.
especially NC7, where 8-term Democratic incumbent Mike McIntyre is fighting to retain his seat after a redistricting that makes him vulnerable to challenger david Rouzer. Retiring Dem congressmen Shuler and Miller are going to be replaced by Republicans. I’m not sure about Larry Kissell, it seems he has a chance.
I find no distinction between Kissell and Republicans nor with McIntyre and Republicans. The only good the election of those two will do is ensure that Democrats select the Speaker of the House.
Kissell has been a huge disappointment. And none of them have made any effort to move the Overton window in their districts. (And this is a huge example of the failure of messaging-focus group strategy in elections instead of actually dealing in politics.)
“The only good the election of those two will do is ensure that Democrats select the Speaker of the House.”
Exactly. Isn’t that extremely important? I didn’t say I liked them.
I don’t see how NC is irrelevent.
Based on average polling data, here’s a perfectly plausible scenario:
Romney wins New Hampshire (currently ahead), Florida (currently ahead), Virginia (currently ahead), Colorado (ahead or tied) and Ohio (upset).
Obama wins Wisconsin (currently ahead), Iowa (ahead or tied), and Nevada (currently ahead).
That’s only one clear upset based on current polling data (Ohio). In that scenario, North Carolina decides the President.
Vote early and often. 🙂
Good point. You never can get enough EVs, in the sense that you never know which ones you might need.
I’m a nervous wreck, can hardly get any work done. I don’t think I can last two weeks, so I’m looking for anything credible that will let me believe it’s in the bag.
Can you tell me where you get 290 from? In terms of a “floor”, I just can’t see 290. That would assume Wisconsin, Iowa, Nevada, Colorado, New Hampshire, and Ohio are all out of reach for Romney. In fact, I think it’s a virtual certainty he’ll win at least one of those. I think he’s actually favored in New Hampshire at this point, and Colorado can’t be more than 60/40, and that’s being generous.
So where’s the “floor” of 290 coming from? I’d sleep easy knowing that Ohio was in the bag, but I have nor reason to believe that…
I think you should be reading Prof. Sam Wang and friends.
http://election.princeton.edu/
Lady outside my metro station had a guitar and amp hooked up, and she was singing about how you shouldn’t be afraid to vote absentee. She was there for at least 30 minutes during rush hour lol.
The GOTV pace is not slackening, at least not in my area. The voting place for early voting is a library and the parking was as congested today as on the first day of early voting.
And people are still being registered.
And remember. North Carolina has 15 electoral votes, only 3 less than Ohio.
And Democratic turnout for Obama is especially important for downticket races. Walter Dalton and the state legislature races could use a minor miracle.
Dalton could use a major miracle.
quicken the pace of more Dems to early vote?
If I were yall, I would vote, vote, vote so one isn’t kept from the polls through downed power lines, trees into roofs, and so forth. People tend to stick together during these times of crisis. Voting is the last thing on anyone’s mind.