Here are my predictions for who will win in individual Senate races. An asterisk indicates a non-incumbent. A ‘D’ and ‘R’ or an ‘Ind’ indicates a change in party. At the end, I’ll tally it up and I’ll discuss individual races and consequences in the comments.
Arizona- Richard Carmona* D+1
California- Diane Feinstein
Connecticut- Chris Murphy* D+1
Delaware- Tom Carper
Florida- Bill Nelson
Hawaii- Mazie Hirono*
Indiana- Joe Donnelly* D+1
Maine- Angus King* Ind+1
Maryland- Ben Cardin
Massachusetts- Elizabeth Warren* D+1
Michigan- Debbie Stabenow
Minnesota- Amy Klobuchar
Mississippi- Roger Wicker
Missouri- Claire McCaskill
Montana- Danny Rehberg* R+1
Nebraska- Deb Fischer* R+1
Nevada- Shelley Berkley* D+1
New Jersey- Bob Menendez
New Mexico- Martin Heinrich*
New York- Kirsten Gillibrand
North Dakota- Heidi Heitkamp*
Ohio- Sherrod Brown
Pennsylvania- Bob Casey Jr.
Rhode Island- Sheldon Whitehouse
Tennessee- Bob Corker
Texas- Ted Cruz*
Utah- Orrin Hatch
Virginia- Tim Kaine*
Vermont- Bernie Sanders
Washington- Maria Cantwell
West Virginia- Joe Manchin
Wisconsin- Tammy Baldwin*
Wyoming- John Barrasso
If my predictions are correct, we will lose one Independent in Joe Lieberman and gain one in Maine’s Angus King, but since King will caucus with the Democrats, there will no change in the D/R split. In other words, Connecticut’s Chris Murphy is technically a pickup for the Democrats, but not really. Bernie Sanders and Angus King will be independents who support Harry Reid as Majority Leader and who sit on the left side in committee hearings. I have the Democrats (if King is included) picking up five seats currently held by Republicans and the Republicans picking up two seats currently held by Democrats.
The current composition of the Senate is 51 Democrats + 2 Dem-caucusing Independents + 47 Republicans. The new numbers would be 54 Democrats + 2 Dem-caucusing Independents + 44 Republicans.
There would be fourteen freshmen senators (for a 14% turnover) and eleven of them would be Democrats while only three of them would be Republicans. The only three incumbents to be defeated would be Democrat Jon Tester of Montana and Republicans Dean Heller of Nevada and Scott Brown of Massachusetts. Sen. Heller was appointed to his seat.
The bottom line would be a new Senate with a 56-44 split instead of the current 53-47 split.
The toughest calls for me were Arizona, Nevada, Montana, and North Dakota. I ultimately sided with the Dems in three out of four of those races, but they could be decided in any permutation from a 2-2 split to a 4-0 blowout in either direction. If we lose them all, we come out even at 53-47. If we win them all, we get up to a 57-43 split. Maximum possible outcome is 58 seats if Bob Kerrey continues his surge in Nebraska, and he is coming on strong.
Going into this election season, I though the best the Dems could do is hold onto 52 seats. Right now, my worst case scenario is 53 seats. I think we have to give Patty Murray a hand for kicking John Cornyn’s ass. We still have to count the votes, but I can’t see any outcome that isn’t a gigantic disappointment for the Republican Party.
And, maybe give Jon Tester a hand. He needs it.
