There are no final victories in politics.
If Barack Obama wins a second term in today’s voting, tomorrow the curtain will rise on a three act, five month drama that could reveal a lot about the direction of American politics for the rest of the decade.
Act 1: The Illegitimate President
Expect howls of outrage from much of the right-wing noise machine if Pres. Obama wins re-election. If it’s a narrow victory, expect multiple lawsuits, demonstrations and a “by any means necessary” use of tactics to try to overturn the outcome.
Act 2: The Fiscal Cliff
All the so-called “fiscal hawks” wailing and moaning about the terrible things that will happen if there’s no “grand bargain” struck before Jan. 1 are merely exposing the fact that they don’t really care about deficit reduction. For deficit reduction, there’s nothing better than going over the so-called “fiscal cliff”. The combination of 1) the expiration of the Bush income tax cuts, 2) the expiration of numerous Obama tax credits and exemptions, and 3) the sequestration of approximately $100 billion in federal spending (half from the Pentagon) would do more to reduce federal deficits than any other single government action in decades.
It would also likely throw the economy back into a “mild” recession. On the other hand, what better time (politically speaking) for a recession to hit than in the first months of a president’s new term?
The question to watch is whether congressional Republicans will cut a deal with Pres. Obama before Jan. 1 to cut spending (but not by as much as the sequester would) and increase taxes (on the wealthy). If they won’t, and if Obama is willing to stand pat against the howls of outrage from the Wise Men of Washington, we’ll wake up in 2013 in a political economy in which the president has gained the upper hand. He’ll be able to propose a middle-class tax cut, increased spending and deficit reduction all at once. Republicans will then get to decide whether they want to be the party that voted against all of that.
Act 3: The Debt Ceiling
In February or March the Treasury Dept. will once again be up against the debt ceiling limit. Last time this happened, House Republicans forced an unprecedented $1 trillion spending cut as the price for their vote to increase the debt ceiling. (The sequester—a part of that deal— was their idea too.)
Will Republicans make a similar demand early next year? And if they do, will Pres. Obama compromise at any cost to avoid going over the debt ceiling (as he did in July 2011), or will he claim that the Constitution prohibits the Congress from refusing to pay government debts arising from spending Congress authorized?
Even if Pres. Obama wins all three of those confrontations, he’ll still face Republican opposition for the next four years. That opposition would likely increase after the 2014 elections in which Republicans would likely gain seats in the House and Senate.
But by winning (or being perceived as winning) those confrontations, Pres. Obama will have set a limit on the ability of extremist Republicans to dismantle his accomplishments of the past four years. And that’s no small accomplishment.
Crossposted at: http://masscommons.wordpress.com/