If you have ever flushed a bug down the toilet, you know that the bug never had a chance. The power of the water overwhelmed their ability to cling to the bowl and crawl their way out. But, if you have ever tried to flush a bug down the bathroom sink, you may have discovered that the power of the faucet was inadequate to the job. If the Republican Party is the bug, the question is, are they in the toilet or are they in the sink?
It’s interesting that Chris Cillizza attributes the Republicans’ bad Election Night almost exclusively to demographic change and a bad turnout operation. I think he should consider that talking about “legitimate” rape and 47% of the people being parasites could have had an impact. The lack of any positive message beyond tax cuts was kind of a problem. The hostility to blacks and Latinos and gays and college women who use contraception? Possibly not helpful. Thoroughly alienating the academic and scientific communities? Not exactly a vote-getter.
Mr. Cillizza provides us four reasons to believe that the Republicans aren’t in as bad shape as we might suspect. The first reason is that the GOP has a crop of “superstars” who are all coming of political age at the same time. The second reason is that (if the people who are projected to be superstars don’t pan out) the GOP may have some hidden gems in the historically-high 30 governor’s mansions they now control.
There is no question that the GOP has some fresh faces who will present a much more attractive slate of presidential candidates in 2016 than we saw in 2012. But let’s not get too excited. New Jersey Governor Chris Christie could become a forceful advocate for a new kind Republicanism that has more appeal to Northerners, but physical and ideological liabilities make him no more likely than Rudy Giuliani to win the GOP’s nomination. Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal doesn’t set anyone’s heart aflutter. He reminds most people of the character Kenneth on 30 Rock. As for Latino candidates like Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida, New Mexico Governor Susana Martinez, and Nevada Governor Brian Sandoval, they all have a lot of appeal, just not to the nativist base of the Republican Party. And I can hardly believe that Mr. Cillizza mentions Indiana Gov.-Elect Mike Pence as an up-and-comer. The man is as dumb as a post.
The third reason Mr. Cillizza doesn’t think the Republican Party is doomed is because, while the Electoral College map looks pretty bleak, it looked bleaker for the Democrats in the 1970’s and 1980’s. All the Republicans have to do is win back the industrial Midwest and they are back in business. But that is not an easy task, and it might not even be true. Nevada is now as blue as Iowa and almost as blue as Minnesota. Will Florida become a reliably blue state? Isn’t Virginia becoming the new Maryland? How long before Arizona falls to the Dems? Can the Republicans defeat a white Democrat in North Carolina or Missouri? Aren’t the Republicans correct to fear the impact of ObamaCare on the political allegiances of the white working-class? It seems to me that the Republicans can only fix their Electoral College problem by winning over the entire industrial Midwest, including states like Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania that they haven’t won in ages. How would they do that?
Mr. Cillizza’s fourth reason for Republican optimism is the simple pendulum effect. After eight to twelve years, Americans typically get sick of the party in power and give the other side a chance. Yet, this pendulum effect is less automatic than in might seem. The Democrats held the White House for 20 years before the people opted for Eisenhower. And Ike wasn’t exactly representative of his contemporaries or successors in the party. He came in to salvage the disaster in Korea, just as Nixon in a sense came in to salvage the disaster in Vietnam. Poppy Bush alienated his base by breaking his promise not to raise taxes and came up against one of the most gifted politicians in American history. He also got beaten down by the criticisms of H. Ross Perot and had the misfortune to face the electorate in a down economy. Similarly, John McCain faced a gifted politician and a great campaign in the midst of an economic meltdown.
There were real, tangible reasons that Americans changed the party controlling the White House in all these cases. They were tired of failure. A party that succeeds, doesn’t lose. The Democrats are on the cusp of building a coalition reminiscent of FDR’s New Deal coalition. All that is holding them back right now is the drag they are getting in white, rural districts. If Bill Clinton could run for Obama’s third-term and take the benefits of ObamaCare to the people, he might win 40 states. We’ll see if the actual Democratic nominee can do that well or not, but nothing Cillizza mentioned should give much comfort to conservatives that they can turn things around by doing more of the same with a new crop of candidates.
