Avoiding Cliff Not That Important

I’m getting pretty bored with stories about the Fiscal Cliff. The administration can insist on what it wants and give some face-saving measures to Speaker Boehner. The ultimate deal has to be something that the vast majority of Democratic senators support, and that means that it has to be something that a very significant percentage of House Democrats support. Here is what Speaker Boehner should be presented with.

He should be presented with a deal that he can only pass with most of the Democratic caucus and a minority of the Republican one. This will break him on the rack and he’ll either force the thing though and lose his influence or he will refuse to try and get blamed for taking us over the cliff.

A deal is preferable to going over the cliff, but we have little reason to pay much of a premium for that. A small face-saving premium? Yes. A premium that most House Republicans support and most House Democrats oppose? Hell no.

In that case, let’s go over the cliff and talk again once we have more congressional members in both Houses in January.

10 Comments

RT on November 20, 2012 at 1:04 pm

I’ve seen it called the “fiscal curb”. That’s worth repeating as a competing metaphor.

BooMan on November 20, 2012 at 1:07 pm

I think it’s stupid. Call it armageddon. We have all the leverage.
cruzy on November 20, 2012 at 2:18 pm

I enjoy “fiscal lip.”
Bearpaw on November 20, 2012 at 2:36 pm

I like “fiscal bluff”.
- RT on November 20, 2012 at 3:38 pm
  
  Nice double meaning there.
on November 20, 2012 at 3:30 pm

I like “fiscal dip”.

Parallax on November 20, 2012 at 1:19 pm

I think you’re exactly right and I hope the Administration is working from the same playbook. Obama’s very savvy so I’m hopeful. Just please, dear God, don’t let the “See, see . . . I’m a moderate!” Obama rear up. At this point, there’s zero reason to play that game. There never was. Hopefully he’s learned from his mistakes.

ImNotSureWhoIWantToBeYet on November 20, 2012 at 5:37 pm

I think (and I haven’t seen much of a case otherwise) that we need to go over the “cliff”. Why?

To finally kill this “Bush Tax Cut” nonsense. They need to become the “Obama Tax Cuts”. As long as they’re the “Bush Tax Cuts” the Republicans can push the meme that “Obama will raise our taxes!!!!111”.
To free the Republicans in Congress from Grover’s clutches. Make them choose between Grover and the Middle Class.
To allow the newly-elected Representatives to have a say and “hit the ground running” so to speak. This shouldn’t be a “lame duck” issue.
To prevent the shrill voices in the media from driving the country into another bad deal as the result of an artificial deadline. (e.g. the world won’t end if Obama signs a new bill in mid-January instead.) Get it right.
To take advantage of a genuinely strong hand. Act like you won a mandate for a change!

It’s about much more than face-saving for Boehner. Boehner’s a big boy and can take care of himself. (Or not.) Caving in for a bad deal will make it harder for Obama to get his picks approved by the Senate, harder to deal with the next Debt Limit battle, etc., etc. He needs to change the tables now.

I think Obama knows all this, but I wonder about those around him sometimes…

My $0.02.

Cheers,
Scott.

The Voice In The Wilderness on November 20, 2012 at 7:34 pm

Good point that deal should not be made solely on fiscal issues. Obama should demand a filibuster-proof cabinet and votes unlocked on all the lower unfilled judicial appointments.

Frank Schnittger on November 20, 2012 at 7:51 pm

If not this time, the Republicans will seek to hold Obama to ransom every time the debt ceiling needs raising or a budget needs to be approved. Obama should propose a four year budget/plan which:

Provides for all the expenditure increases he needs to fulfill his mandate on Healthcare, Education, Unemployment benefits, Jobs bill, science research etc,
Provides tax cuts for he middle class
Reduces military expenditure enabled bt ending of wars in Iraq and Afghanistan
Reduces the debt as a % of GDP over the four year period – mainly as a consequence of growth

By all means make some concessions to the GOP in return for a 4 year plan which meets his main objectives, but don’t make concessions for anything less because otherwise you’ll be making concessions every time a budget needs approving or the nominal level of the debt ceiling needs to be raised.

Obama has a one time opportunity to get the broad outlines of his program approved by a Republican congress – he won’t get a second chance.

RT on November 20, 2012 at 1:04 pm

I’ve seen it called the “fiscal curb”. That’s worth repeating as a competing metaphor.
- BooMan on November 20, 2012 at 1:07 pm
  
  I think it’s stupid. Call it armageddon. We have all the leverage.
- cruzy on November 20, 2012 at 2:18 pm
  
  I enjoy “fiscal lip.”
- Bearpaw on November 20, 2012 at 2:36 pm
  
  I like “fiscal bluff”.
  - RT on November 20, 2012 at 3:38 pm
    
    Nice double meaning there.
- on November 20, 2012 at 3:30 pm
  
  I like “fiscal dip”.
Parallax on November 20, 2012 at 1:19 pm

I think you’re exactly right and I hope the Administration is working from the same playbook. Obama’s very savvy so I’m hopeful. Just please, dear God, don’t let the “See, see . . . I’m a moderate!” Obama rear up. At this point, there’s zero reason to play that game. There never was. Hopefully he’s learned from his mistakes.
ImNotSureWhoIWantToBeYet on November 20, 2012 at 5:37 pm
I think (and I haven’t seen much of a case otherwise) that we need to go over the “cliff”. Why?
1. To finally kill this “Bush Tax Cut” nonsense. They need to become the “Obama Tax Cuts”. As long as they’re the “Bush Tax Cuts” the Republicans can push the meme that “Obama will raise our taxes!!!!111”.
2. To free the Republicans in Congress from Grover’s clutches. Make them choose between Grover and the Middle Class.
3. To allow the newly-elected Representatives to have a say and “hit the ground running” so to speak. This shouldn’t be a “lame duck” issue.
4. To prevent the shrill voices in the media from driving the country into another bad deal as the result of an artificial deadline. (e.g. the world won’t end if Obama signs a new bill in mid-January instead.) Get it right.
5. To take advantage of a genuinely strong hand. Act like you won a mandate for a change!
It’s about much more than face-saving for Boehner. Boehner’s a big boy and can take care of himself. (Or not.) Caving in for a bad deal will make it harder for Obama to get his picks approved by the Senate, harder to deal with the next Debt Limit battle, etc., etc. He needs to change the tables now.

I think Obama knows all this, but I wonder about those around him sometimes…

My $0.02.

Cheers,
Scott.
- The Voice In The Wilderness on November 20, 2012 at 7:34 pm
  
  Good point that deal should not be made solely on fiscal issues. Obama should demand a filibuster-proof cabinet and votes unlocked on all the lower unfilled judicial appointments.
Frank Schnittger on November 20, 2012 at 7:51 pm
If not this time, the Republicans will seek to hold Obama to ransom every time the debt ceiling needs raising or a budget needs to be approved. Obama should propose a four year budget/plan which:
1. Provides for all the expenditure increases he needs to fulfill his mandate on Healthcare, Education, Unemployment benefits, Jobs bill, science research etc,
2. Provides tax cuts for he middle class
3. Reduces military expenditure enabled bt ending of wars in Iraq and Afghanistan
4. Reduces the debt as a % of GDP over the four year period – mainly as a consequence of growth
By all means make some concessions to the GOP in return for a 4 year plan which meets his main objectives, but don’t make concessions for anything less because otherwise you’ll be making concessions every time a budget needs approving or the nominal level of the debt ceiling needs to be raised.

Obama has a one time opportunity to get the broad outlines of his program approved by a Republican congress – he won’t get a second chance.

Avoiding Cliff Not That Important

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