As Michael Grunwald points out, Republicans spent the entire presidential campaign complaining President Obama had “no plan” for dealing with the country’s economy and the nation’s budget in general, and the Gentle Fiscal Incline* in particular.
Since the election, Republicans have shifted to complaining that Obama’s proposal is the “same old plan” he’s always had (which, technically, is closer to the truth): modest tax hikes for the wealthiest Americans combined with additional fiscal stimulus in the short term, modest spending cuts to Medicare (targeted at providers, insurers and the wealthiest beneficiaries) in the long term.
Meanwhile, Speaker Boehner has yet to put forward his initial proposal—unless you consider a vague willingness to consider eliminating and reducing tax credits and deductions a proposal. Noticeably missing from Boehner’s public remarks has been any specificity about which spending cuts Republicans would make. As Greg Sargent reports, Sen. Mitch McConnell, has gone a bit further: “McConnell’s offer is this: We’ll give you increased revenues via the closing of loopholes — and in exchange, you give us the entitlement reforms we want, plus the tax rates we want. That’s not much of a compromise. Indeed, it’s not new.”
Given that we’re a full four weeks away from the bargaining deadline, I’m not surprised neither side has budged much off of their initial offer. The major difference so far between these negotiations and the 2011 budget and debt ceiling negotiations is that President Obama appears to have shifted his strategy away from a presumption of Republican good will. That, combined with Obama’s more powerful negotiating position (he won re-election handily, Democrats picked up House and Senate seats, a recession in 2013 is likely to cause more political problems for members of Congress running for reelection in 2014 than it is for a president who will leave the Oval Office in January 2017), appears to have created a new dynamic to which Republicans are having trouble adjusting.
In Chris Matthews book, Hardball, he tells the story of a 1977 Clean Air Act conference committee negotiation led by House chairman John Dingell (D-Detroit) and Senate chairman Ed Muskie (D-Maine). At one point Dingell, exasperated at Muskie’s stubbornness, shouted (paraphrasing), “Dammit Muskie, don’t you realize that if we don’t get this done, every auto plant in the country will have to shut down?!” (This was due to a provision Muskie had inserted into the previous incarnation of the Clean Air Act.)
Muskie sat back, looked across the table at Dingell and said, “But John, there are no auto plants in Maine.”
In the Gentle Fiscal Incline* negotiations, Obama is in Muskie’s position. If no deal is reached, taxes go up (especially for the wealthy), military spending is cut, Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security are protected, and the nation’s long-term debt problems disappear. As Josh Marshall describes the difference between Democrats and Republicans at the prospect of going over the Gentle Fiscal Incline*, “Both President Obama and congressional Republicans are moving right along to the edge of the cliff. Both say they’re ready to go over the edge. Only President Obama is gliding along in a hot air balloon and John Boehner and co. are on foot.”
*Trademark-Charlie Pierce
Crossposted at: http://masscommons.wordpress.com/
