It has only been sitting for one day and already the 113th Congress is a complete disaster. Citing a Republican polling firm’s December findings, Speaker Boehner told his caucus this morning that 72% of the public believes that the government should cut spending by more than whatever amount they add to the debt ceiling. In other words, Speaker Boehner committed himself to holding the debt ceiling hostage despite the president’s adamant refusal to negotiate over the issue.
We all know that you can get a poll to tell you whatever you want it to tell you. If we asked people to cut government spending by $1.2 trillion dollars (the rough amount of the next debt ceiling hike), they would not like their choices and would determine that we need more revenue. There is no way that 72% of the people would still think it was a good idea to cut spending that much. A poll taken in December is almost meaningless because the president will have his inaugural speech and his State of the Union speech to make his case for never negotiating on the debt ceiling again. He’ll have all of Wall Street on his side. He’ll have every reputable economist on his side. He’ll have Bill Clinton on his side. He’ll have a unified Democratic Party on his side. And he already has the good will of the people.
Speaker Boehner seems incapable of thinking more than one step ahead. He ought to ask himself how he plans on winning this showdown with the rest of the universe. He could, for example, pass a bill that raises the debt ceiling by $1.2 trillion and cuts spending by more than that. And he could hand that to the Senate and dare them not to pass it. Except, he could never get his caucus to vote for the cuts to Medicare that such a bill would require. But, let’s say he could pass it. He’d be threatening everyone’s Medicare on one side and the global economy and the nation’s credit rating on the other. And he’d be doing it in the context of a simultaneous hostage situation on the sequester that threatens every powerful interest group in the country, including the Pentagon. And, all this, without the slightest whiff of a mandate from the people.
Mr. Boehner was barely reelected as Speaker. He has no margin for error. If ever anyone was waddling into the threshing blades*, it’s John Boehner.