If this the best they can do, the Republicans ought to pick up their ball and go home. In agreeing to extend the debt ceiling for three months without any corresponding spending cuts, the GOP is finally acknowledging that the president was never going to negotiate with them and they would be blamed for a default. But, now we will be back here in three months with the Republicans again taking crap for creating uncertainty and undermining confidence in the full faith and credit of the United States. The one gimmick they’ve included here is a requirement that the Senate pass a budget or no one in Congress will receive any pay. The idea is to try to shift the debate from default to Senate dysfunction, and to get people thinking about the budget and deficit spending again. The problem with their strategy is three-fold. First, the Senate could refuse to agree to this stipulation. Second, the Budget Control Act of 2011 already sets spending limits for next year, so the Senate doesn’t really need to pass a detailed non-binding budget. Third, almost no one in the country cares whether Congress gets paid or not. In fact, most people would like to see them go without a paycheck and see how it feels.
In the end, the Republicans will continue to anger everyone and then fold. Even though they are following Krauthammer’s advice here, I think they need to consider the rest of his advice:
The party establishment is coming around to the view that if you try to govern from one house — e.g., force spending cuts with cliffhanging brinkmanship — you lose. You not only don’t get the cuts. You get the blame for rattled markets and economic uncertainty. You get humiliated by having to cave in the end. And you get opinion polls ranking you below head lice and colonoscopies in popularity.
There is history here. The Gingrich Revolution ran aground when it tried to govern from Congress, losing badly to President Clinton over government shutdowns. Nor did the modern insurgents do any better in the 2011 debt-ceiling and 2012 fiscal-cliff showdowns with Obama.
Obama’s postelection arrogance and intransigence can put you in a fighting mood. I sympathize. But I’m tending toward the realist view: Don’t force the issue when you don’t have the power.
Tip O’Neill had to put up with this crap when Reagan was president. He never closed down the government or caused a downgrade in our debt ceiling, and people didn’t say they’d rather have a colonoscopy than a drink with Tip O’Neill.