It’s the middle of the night in Israel and election results are still being tallied but it appears than Benjamin Netanyahu has collapsed as much as he could collapse and still survive. Right now, it looks like the center-right has won 61 seats and the center-left has won 59 seats in the Knesset. Yet, even expert Israeli observers are unable to make solid predictions about what it means. I will not attempt to predict which parties will join the governing coalition and which parties will be cut out. I haven’t followed the campaign and I have only a cursory familiarity with the minor parties in Israel.
What seems clear, however, is that Netanyahu has been badly weakened. He should be able to form a government with a bigger majority than one, but his power has ebbed. I do not doubt that he paid a price for listening to Arthur Finkelstein and openly campaigning for Mitt Romney. Most Israelis know that their country needs a strong relationship with the American president and that it is insane for an Israeli prime minister to campaign for one American candidate over the other. It is especially insane to bet on the loser.
Regardless, nothing will change re: Israel’s present attitude towards the West Bank and Gaza.
I think it is a vast oversimplification to say that “nothing” will change when Israel has elections that strongly swing the Knesset to the left. It’s a complicated country with a vibrant political life.
Lapid said that he does not care what the Arabs want. “What I want is not a new Middle East, but to be rid of them and put a tall fence between us and them.” The important thing, he added, is “to maintain a Jewish majority in the Land of Israel.”
Lapid has said recently that the Left “makes the same mistake again when it negotiates the division of Jerusalem.”
How is this that much different than Netanyahu? In a way you’re right, what will happen is that Netanyahu will now have cover to continue his colonization project. Before the right-wing owned it all, and he was being ostracized. Now the peace process is saved!
That’s the spirit!
Go Meretz! Kadima and Likud go down, but Jewish Home won a lot, too. HaTnua isn’t anything to cheer, as it’s led by Livni. Labor is barely recognizable as a left part anymore; at least Independence lost a lot (it would be like our Blue Dogs forming their own party, and getting crushed).
I can’t make heads or tails of the results. I expected Jewish Home to win more than they did. Things are going to get really rocky in Israel…
Meretz is the only Israeli party worth supporting, really. The Arab Parties would also be worth supporting, seeing as many of them are actual leftist parties (Hadash being outright communist in some respects).
See also the Eretz Chadasha party, which apparently “withdrew” from the race…except that they didn’t. They were poised to win 2 seats.
Dirty Tricks Israel-Style: Knesset Elections Committee Lies, Tells Voters Social Justice Party Withdrew from Race
I feel about Israel now the way most of the world felt about the US in November 2004. Sympathetic for the sizable minority who were appalled at their government but disgusted that someone that utterly evil could even make the election close, let alone win.
Was it not also significant that Avigdor Lieberman resigned last month? I confess that Israeli politics are mostly pretty confusing to me. But that seemed like an important development that didn’t get discussed much over here (I believe because Sandy Hook happened around the same time).
Yes, a lot of things are significant. Another is that the defense minister Ehud Barak resigned at the end of November.
Decided to quit politics (his newly formed Independence party) but did not resign!
Thanks for the correction. However, reading the article carefully, there is no actual evidence at this point that he will be staying on, only that it’s possible. It’s a spin piece.
If Barak is reappointed, it will certainly give new meaning to the idea of “making a comeback”.
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See my comment on Januari 7 here and the analysis in my diary here.
It’s even getting more interesting as Kadima just meets the threshold and gets 2 mandates in the 19th Knesset. This translates at a deadlock right bloc 60 and left bloc 60 seats.
It became clear Likud – Yisrael Beiteinu ticket was in big trouble ahead of election day as Netanyahu tried to wedge votes from the right (settlements statements and national security on Iran’s nuclear issue) and later from the left by suddenly showing interest in the social issues by appointing Moshe Khalon as as director of the Israel Lands Authority. This made him all that more untrustworthy to the Israeli electorate. Likud’s backbenchers are unhappy because Netanyahu promised his parther Libermen 15 seats for his party. This leaves just 16 seats for Netanyahu’s own Likud candidates, although he had moved the more extreme candidates to the top of his list. If Netanyahu can form a new governmnt he has to make it very broad and make it with centrist policy. An humiliating experience for Netanyahu who likes to govern with a position of power and large majority in the Knesset. I’m sure someone in the White House is smiling and will be the first foreign leader to congratulate Netanyahu with his “victory.” Will meet you soon.
Indeed, Arthur Finkleman left Likud’s camp four days early. An analysis of Likud’s collapse here – Netanyahu Became His Own Worst Enemy.
Obama interferes in Israel election and the sudden appearance of US Congressmen in Jerusalem to pose with our great ally Netanyahu.
Finkleman?
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Should have read Finkelstein, thanks.
Here is the list.
Netanyahu is now Israel’s George dubya. A deeply despised figure of polarization, failure and division.
But as of a month ago, this result was quite unexpected, no?
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His animosity towards President Obama worked to his disadvantage.
Unexpected, no! See my diary and the first indication his assault in November on Gaza which ended in displeasure of the settler crowd and IDF soldiers.