That the Republican Party is demonstrating fractured views on foreign policy is only one small part of a much greater state of generalized disarray. The most obvious problem is that they have no leader. Not only is there no prospect of past leaders like Dick Cheney, John McCain, Sarah Palin, or Mitt Romney making some kind of comeback, there is no one like Ronald Reagan or Poppy Bush waiting in the wings to take the reins of the party and lead it in a new direction.
Of course, we can find people who might plausibly pick up the banner, step into the breach, and rally the troops (and someone can always come from nowhere), but it is becoming increasingly hard to see much promise in the usual suspects. Chris Christie always had the problem that he is morbidly obese, but he’s discovered that the secret to immense popularity is not to compete to make the most unhinged comment about the president but to wrap his arms around him and thank him for coming to his state’s aid. Bashing the Republicans in Congress doesn’t hurt, either, but it doesn’t carve out much of a future in any prospective primary season.
Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal has decided that he will win over the conservative rank-and-file by calling them stupid. Virginia Governor Bob McDonnell lost his chance to be on Romney’s ticket when he allowed his party to become associated with compulsory trans-vaginal ultrasounds. The Republican governors of Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Florida are proving to be immensely unpopular, which helped Obama carry all five states comfortably.
There might be a future with Latino leaders like Senator Marco Rubio of Florida, and Governors Susana Martinez of New Mexico and Brian Sandoval of Nevada, but we’re about to go through a contentious debate about immigration reform, and it’s quite likely that the Republican base will emerge with sore feelings about anyone who advocated moderation and reform, regardless of the outcome.
Inasmuch as the Congressional Republicans have leaders, they aren’t popular. John Boehner is a serious alcoholic who is widely seen as the weakest and most incompetent Speaker of the House in living memory. He actually cannot be considered a leader at all, since he can’t make his caucus do anything. The Senate Minority Leader is an effective tactician, but he is up for reelection and fewer than twenty percent of Mitch McConnell’s constituents are enthused about his reelection.
Obviously, someone will become the Republican Party’s nominee in 2016, but it doesn’t seem likely that they will be anymore influential among the party faithful than Mitt Romney.
People talk a lot about how demographic changes are shrinking the Republicans’ natural share of the electorate, and that is true. But the party has been going beyond this disability by alienating groups who were previously at least willing to give them a hearing. The turn against climate science and the increasing hostility toward educators of all types has led rapidly to situation where only six percent of scientists consider themselves Republicans. The conservatives have always had a disadvantage with creative, artistic people, but losing, in addition, almost 19 out of 20 empirical minds is a recipe for disaster. Waging a war against women’s rights in Congress and (especially) in the states, while making it painfully clear that they don’t like Latinos and don’t want blacks to vote, has taken a liability and turned it into an albatross.
Republican ideas already suffer from a non-factual non-evidence based bias, but there are increasing signs that the consensus on important issues is becoming strained. This is true on foreign policy and it is true on economics. There isn’t much in common between John McCain and Rand Paul on foreign policy, and you could say the same about economics between Rand Paul and Eric Cantor.
The result is that the GOP appears rudderless. There are certainly fractures within Obama’s coalition, but it is big enough to digest them. In fact, the extremism of the modern GOP serves an important role in creating cohesion on the left. We might be highly concerned about many Obama administration policies, but we have nowhere to go and we’re happy about so much of what they’re doing that we’re not willing to risk blowing up the center-left coalition in a fit of pique.
The Republicans appear to be in the wilderness without a map. The few things that are working to unite them (like anti-tax absolutism) are actually going to alienate their big money donors and further weaken them. The right is screwed.
