Something I noticed in January, when Marco Rubio unfurled his support for comprehensive immigration reform with a path to citizenship, was that many voices on the right who vehemently oppose “amnesty” (as they insist on calling it) were extremely reticent about criticizing him. Reading Beth Reinhard’s piece in the National Journal helps to explain why. There is a widespread feeling on the right that Marco Rubio is going to run for president in 2016 and that he will be the nominee. For the most part, this is something that is hoped for across a pretty wide spectrum of the Republican Party.
According to Ms. Reinhard’s reporting, Jeb Bush has right of first refusal, so if he decides to run, Rubio will not. Many see Rubio as someone who can follow pretty closely in President Obama’s footsteps. Perhaps, most importantly, they see Rubio as someone who can inspire people to vote less for the man’s ideas than the man. After all, there wasn’t a tremendous amount of difference between Obama’s policies and the policies of John Edwards and Hillary Clinton. Obama was not saddled with a vote authorizing war in Iraq, and that was extremely important, but the most important thing of all was his persona. If Marco Rubio wants to be president, he is going to have to hope that he can inspire the same kind of confidence in people, because he has one of the most extreme right-wing voting records in Congress.
Like Obama, Rubio is young, good-looking, articulate, and a racial minority. Like Obama when he began his campaign, Rubio is a freshman senator with a thin record, which has its advantages. But it also had its disadvantages. That is why Rubio is being groomed. He gave the Keynote Address a primetime speech at the Republican National Convention. He delivered the official Republican response to the State of the Union. He will travel internationally as part of his responsibilities on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. He is the designated point man on immigration reform which, if it passes, will give him a high profile legislative accomplishment. These are boxes that need to be checked if Rubio is going to make a run.
It seems that the widespread hope that is being invested in Rubio may be the catalyst for a successful effort to do immigration reform. A failure to pass a bill will damage the GOP’s Great Brown Hope just as badly as it will damage the president, if not worse. And, yet, the Republicans’ hatred of brown people is strong enough that they may not be able to help themselves.
One repetitive obsession of conservatives is a discomfort with accusations of racism. They seem to be able to alleviate any feeling that the charge might hit the mark by supporting racial minorities. “Clarence Thomas is my favorite judge.” “I love Herman Cain.” “Look! Our chairman is Michael Steele. He’s black.”
It’s a variation on the “I’m not racist because I have black friends” gambit that never convinces anyone. The truth is, for every conservative who enjoys supporting the rare conservative racial minority, there are dozens who won’t support them because they are unapologetically racist. Any immigration reform that includes any pathway to citizenship will be deeply unpopular on the right, and a desire to beat the Democrats with a charismatic Latino candidate isn’t going to change that fact.
This creates a scenario nearly the opposite of what Obama faced in 2008. Obama’s great advantage was that he had not been on the wrong side of the debate over Iraq, which was the most controversial issue in the Democratic primary. Rubio will almost surely face a plethora of rivals who either voted against reform or were on the record as opposing it. Can he rely on those rivals to treat him and the issue with kids’ gloves?
Of course, the dynamics will be different depending on whether reform passed or failed. If it passed, the GOP will want to get the maximum amount of benefit from it with the Latino electorate. That is, after all, the main motivation of conservative reformers, as John McCain openly admits. Rubio will have many staunch defenders on the right and in the establishment. If it fails, however, those who supported it will be seen as apostates. McCain’s failure to pass immigration reform in 2005, basically killed his campaign for president in 2007, before he made a near miraculous comeback. Like Romney, McCain only won the nomination after every alternative proved ludicrous. I sincerely doubt that Rubio will enjoy a similarly inept set of challengers.
In the end, there is a lot being invested in Rubio’s ability to sell a rejected product. So far, his only deviation from Tea Party orthodoxy is his support for immigration reform. The white hot intensity of the right’s distaste for immigration reform makes it all the more necessary for Rubio to hew the line on every other issue. Far from being a new kind of Republican, he’s an extreme Republican in the most excessive Tea Party-mold. His candidacy will not signify an ideological move to the middle, but the most radical presidential candidacy since at least Goldwater, and probably ever.
Even if we assume that he has the charisma and political chops to rival Obama, can he really overcome his record, the unpopularity of even moderate Republican ideas, and the changing demographics of the country? Can he even win his party’s nomination?
Another thing to consider is something Ron Fournier discusses in this piece. Many Republican strategists are beginning to panic about an independent run by Rand Paul. If Paul runs as an independent after a strong but unsuccessful attempt at the Republican nomination, and if Hillary and Rubio are the two major party nominees, will the GOP be able to win anywhere?