About 534,000 people voted in the Democratic primary in Massachusetts today, and about 185,000 people voted in the Republican primary. Back in 2010, Martha Coakley (Dem) and Scott Brown (Rep) won special election primaries with the following turnout numbers: Democrats 664,195, Republicans 162,706. Scott Brown went on to beat Martha Coakley by almost five points, winning 1,168,178 votes.
What those numbers tell us is that we can’t be complacent about retaining this seat even though Massachusetts has many more Democrats than Republicans. Tonight’s Democratic victor, Rep. Ed Markey, received many fewer votes than Martha Coakley did three years ago, and the Republicans turned out in higher numbers this time around.
It’s true that Martha Coakley ran a terrible campaign. It’s also true that the January 2010 election was held during peak Tea Party season in the midst of some of the worst economic conditions of the Great Recession. Early signs are that the Republican victor tonight, Gabriel Gomez, is probably not as ready for primetime as Scott Brown was at this point in his campaign. But the numbers don’t lie. The Republicans had better turnout tonight and the Democrats had worse turnout tonight than they did three years ago.
I still feel good about Ed Markey’s chances but one additional concern is his election history. Since he first won the Democratic primary in 1976 with 22% of the vote, he has rarely been seriously challenged. In 1984, he had a primary scare in which he won with only 54% of the vote. Eight times he has run for reelection unopposed, and the only time he even has had to break a sweat in a general election came 21 years ago when he won 62% in a three-way race. The truth is that tonight’s 58%-42% shellacking of Rep. Stephen Lynch is the closest election that Markey has had in twenty-nine years.
Meanwhile, a month ago, Gabriel Gomez was being criticized for a lackluster debate performance and was considered an also-ran in the race.
So, let no one assume that John Kerry’s seat is safely in our hands. Tomorrow it will be time to get to work.