Byron York is correct that the Republicans cannot win the Electoral College by winning over more Latino voters alone. But the result of his analysis seems to be that the best path to victory is even greater racial polarization. It’s really a two-parter. The GOP can win if they can increase their share of the white vote from 60% to 64%. Or, they can win if they turn out white voters in much higher numbers than Romney managed to do. Of course, they can also win by some partial combination of the two.
I don’t know why so many white voters stayed home in 2012. Were they evangelicals who didn’t want to vote for a Mormon? Were they working class folks who didn’t like Romney’s 47% comments? Some problems are easier to fix than others, but you have to know what the problems were if you want to fix them.
A more populist economic message would help, but the dual strategy of improving their performance with whites and turning more of them out seems to call for bolstering white tribal feelings and turning them against the multiethnic Obama coalition.
The problem is that the younger generations do not really think along tribal lines. And for every white person you get to join your racial club, you tend to turn off a minority.
Of course, the worst part of it is that the strategy depends for success on increasing the divisiveness and racial hostility of our society.
I really don’t see what the Republicans are worried about?
Their outreach program to women, minorities, gays, seniors, parents and their children, the sick, and disabled, is going to swimmingly!
I think if they continue on this course, they will CRASH HEAD-ON INTO THE DEMOGRAPHIC WALL!!!
And that, boys and girls, is why they’re ramping-up their voter suppression efforts, and every other dirty trick in the book.
And then some.
IF the repubs cant beat Obama with racism, it certainly won’t work against Clinton or Biden. The Southern strategy is dead, at least nationally.
IF the repubs cant beat Obama with racism, it certainly won’t work against Clinton or Biden.
Preferably Elizabeth Warren or Brian Schweitzer!
say it over and over again:
Barack Obama put a stake through the heart of the Southern Strategy.
It was nice that he won the Southern states that he did..
but, let’s repeat this..
HE WOULD HAVE BEEN PRESIDENT WITHOUT ONE SOUTHERN STATE.
PERIOD.
Barack Obama made the South -ELECTORALLY IRRELEVANT.
I don’t see where the White Resentment crowd’s numbers are increasing. Improving the white vote by 4% isn’t exactly a cake walk. There’s that whole attrition thing to consider.
Conversely, the youth and non-white demographics continue to expand. As long as we stay focused on turning out voters, I like our chances.
He had to go back to 2004. I wasn’t even aware that the share of white voter participation was down significantly. How does 2008 compare with 2012?
For your reasoning to be correct, it would have to mean that the republicans are thinking like this:
“Look, we got 60% of the white vote by being racist. If we can be even more racist, we’ll get it up to 64%.”
As if 4% of the voting-age population are staying home because the GOP isn’t racist enough.
Now maybe they are thinking like that, but somehow I don’t find it realistic. Sure, they could be more racist, but all evidence I’ve seen is that the effect would be just the opposite. They’ve already maxed out the racist vote.
I think this line is key:
York is saying that Romney failed to turn out enough white vote not because of cultural issues, e.g. his Mormon faith, but economic ones. The Romney-Ryan arguments for doubling down on trickle-down failed to win over folks who have been losing ground since the Reagan years.
Perhaps York is aligning himself with Sen. Paul, who seems to be building his case for 2016 on an ostensibly populist economic plan, as opposed to Sen. Rubio who is hoping to rebrand the GOP as a more inclusive body.
“Of course, the worst part of it is that the strategy depends for success on increasing the divisiveness and racial hostility of our society.”
See, that’s why Republicans are so misunderstood. Pat Buchanan, Ron Paul, and Jeff Sessions would say that’s the BEST part.
Republicans have a few problems, none of which are being too racist:
Hate can be an inspirational even aspirational force for reforging a permanent Republican majority for a thousand years. No reason to give up on their basic values just because they are suffering temporary rejection at the ballot box by genetically inferior, sexually promiscuous, yet oddly childless (unless having anchor babies, or welfare dependent children) subhumans lacking any civilized aspects of taste, tradition, culture, and religion.