If I understand it correctly, the last time we had to raise the debt ceiling, the Republicans balked and decided to merely suspend the requirement that we operate with a debt ceiling. That suspension has sunsetted as of May 19th. Treasury Secretary Lew announced that he would implement the “standard set of extraordinary measures” to avoid defaulting on our debt.
On Friday, the Treasury stopped issuing State and Local Government Series securities (SLGS). State and local governments buy the securities as they work to refund municipal bond deals. Issuing those securities takes up space under the debt limit.
The Treasury also has the power to halt new investments in federal employee retirement funds, which would be reimbursed once the limit is hiked. It also can stop reinvesting in its Exchange Stabilization Fund used to buy and sell foreign currencies. All these moves can free up billions of dollars the government can use to meet critical bills, and give Washington time to strike a debt-limit compromise.
This is just how we operate now, like a Banana Republic. However, there has been a little wrinkle in the Republicans’ plans. They thought we’d be out of money this summer and they would be able to force another hostage crisis over the debt ceiling to extract concessions on the budget. But then we ran a $113 billion surplus in April, and now Secretary Lew assures Congress that we can make it past Labor Day without defaulting on our debts.
With their hostage-taking plans in ruins, Republican senators began cannibalizing each other on the Senate floor yesterday. To understand what was going on requires some explanation.
The way the budget process is supposed to work is that both the House and the Senate pass a budget in the spring. They reconcile their two budgets into one budget. Then the responsible committees figure out how they are going to spend the money they have been allotted. Appropriations bills are drafted in the late summer and early fall. And then those bills are passed in each house, and reconciled with each other and passed again. That’s how it is supposed to work, but it’s been a while since things actually worked out that way.
Strictly speaking, there is no requirement that Congress pass a budget, and they haven’t agreed to one in recent years. While the House has passed a serious of Paul Ryan budgets, the Senate hasn’t bothered to pass anything or make any attempt to reconcile their priorities with Ryan’s.
The Senate’s failure to pass a budget became a rallying cry for conservatives who kept complaining that the Democrats were not using “regular order” to work on the budget. So, this year, the Senate Democrats finally decided that they would pass a budget. They accomplished that 59 days ago.
The next step is supposed to be the selection of conferees to serve on a Conference Committee. That’s what is called “regular order.” The House and Senate select their conferees, and then the Conference Committee hammers out a compromise. Yet, it appears that in passing a budget, the Senate Democrats have called some kind of bluff, because the Republicans absolutely refuse to allow the selection of conferees.
Senator Ted Cruz of Texas has a conspiracy theory that the Democrats will use the Conference Committee to get rid of the debt ceiling. John McCain thinks he is an idiot.
On the other side, Sens. John McCain (R-Ariz.) and Susan Collins (R-Maine.) questioned that argument, noting that Democrats couldn’t do anything in conference without the approval of the House — which, McCain said, “happens to be a majority of our party.”
“So we don’t trust the majority party on the other side of the [Capitol] to come to conference and not hold to the fiscal discipline that we want to see happen? Isn’t that a little bit bizarre?” McCain said.
McCain and Collins also argued that the stall tactics look ridiculous after months of GOP complaints about the refusal by Senate Democrats to adopt a budget. The first Senate budget in three years won approval 59 days ago, and Republicans have been dragging their feet every since.
“What are we on my side of the aisle doing?” demanded McCain.
Since the budget is really nothing more than a blueprint for making appropriations decisions, it’s a worthless document if it isn’t passed in the spring because the fiscal year ends on September 30th. The Republicans can’t get concessions on the budget by refusing to lift the debt ceiling if the debt ceiling won’t become a crisis until early September.
What’s actually happening is a freak-out on the conservative side because circumstances have conspired against them.
No one expects budget negotiations to go smoothly. House Budget Committee Chairman Paul Ryan (R-Wis.) has said he views the debt limit deadline as critical to forcing an agreement. But that deadline has now been pushed to well after Labor Day.
In recent conversations with reporters, Collins has called the stall tactics “absurd;” McCain called them “insane” and “incomprehensible.”
Here’s how Steve Benen describes the situation:
Congressional Republicans made a series of assumptions, all of which have turned out to be wrong. They assumed Senate Democrats couldn’t pass a budget. They assumed Democrats wouldn’t want a budget process considered under regular order. And they assumed the budget talks, if they occurred, would happen around the same time as the need for a debt-ceiling increase.
GOP lawmakers were terribly disappointed, then, to see Senate Democrats do exactly what they were asked to do, and the economy improved quickly enough to push off the debt-limit deadline until fall.
But with their plans foiled, Republicans are stuck with no Plan B, no leverage, and no credible threat.
Part of the problem involves the House rules. If the Conference Committee were to convene, and if it were unable to come to an agreement after 20 days, then members of the House (including Democrats) could begin initiating votes on “instructing the conferees.” And that would spell the end of any semblance of leadership control over the budget process.
Another part of the problem is that having a public conference committee would force the Republicans to show their intransigence on taxing the wealthy and their insistence on slashing popular programs and entitlements. Their positions have a surface level of support with a large segment of the public, but that support evaporates when it becomes concrete. To get the kind of cuts they want, they need a Grand Bargain because they need to be able to blame the Democrats for complicity in the unpopular parts of the budget. They won’t be able to do that if they use regular order.
So, here we are. The Republicans don’t know what to do. They are fighting each other. The conservatives have stopped making sense even to John McCain.
“What are we on my side of the aisle doing? We don’t want a budget unless we put requirements on the conferees that are absolutely out of line and unprecedented,” McCain said. “So all I say to my colleagues is, can’t we after all those hours – I forgot what hour in the morning it was – after all those votes, after all that debate, after all that discussion and we came up with a budget and now we won’t go to conference. Why is that?”
It’s because they’re crazy and incompetent.
Thanks for the extensive explanation, but the rightwing monsters don’t seem particularly crazy or incompetent.
What they are doing is operating in complete bad faith and then lying about it. They are quite competent at deceiving the public and getting their corporate media stooges (who may indeed be incompetent) to throw up so much dust that only expert Congress watchers like you can figure out what is really happening. McFool’s questions are purely rhetorical. Everyone in Congress knows what the Repubs are doing.
Repubs are at this point a party of immoral schemers, dissemblers and liars. THAT they are quite competent at. They are also quite competent at intentionally and willfully paralyzing the federal gub’mint and creating manufactured “crises” which result in across the board cuts gutting every program they despise. Since that is precisely their goal, they are not “crazy”.
Indeed, they are quite expert in turning the country into a third world nation and banana republic. Unfortunately only the 1%ers can figure this out.
They are also quite competent at intentionally and willfully paralyzing the federal gub’mint and creating manufactured “crises” which result in across the board cuts gutting every program they despise. Since that is precisely their goal, they are not “crazy”.
Didn’t the budget the Senate past re: the post contain like a 20% reduction in money for SNAP?
Repubs are at this point a party of immoral schemers, dissemblers and liars.
This is, without a doubt, the absolute truth. I’ve said it before, “no moral person” could align themselves with these evil, petty, {you can fill in the rest}.
Great comment.
I don’t know. Back when I was a regular of the Philly Drinking Liberally chapter, we would have the same crazy vs. stupid debate practically every week. We never could settle it.
But we were in agreement that the incompetence is real.
There’s a decent argument to be made that the Republicans benefit from incompetence because they can use it as evidence that the federal government isn’t trustworthy. But that’s different from from them being unable to coordinate and act in a coherent fashion.
It’s kind of like the difference between what an individual ant or bee is thinking and what the colony or hive is thinking. If the individuals are confused and not doing their jobs, the colony as a whole still produces some kind of action, no matter how disjointed and inefficient. But if the colony doesn’t have a blueprint for action, then they all starve. Either way, the result is deplorable, but there is a difference between the two things.
The problem right now is that Boehner has no plan. If the result serves some overarching talking point about how the government is bad, then there is still some benefit to it. But, to what end?
In other words, breaking the government isn’t really the blueprint, but it serves them better than the alternatives, so there we are.
I conclude from your main post that Generalissimo Ryan didn’t really want to have the federal budget proceed under “regular order” and just wanted more anti-Dem talking points to blabber about to the corporate media. He was then outmaneuvered by senate Dems and now the senate Repubs have to save him by refusing to name conferees. So Ryan’s gambit shows he was incompetent to some extent.
But my main point is that Ryan was engaging in bad faith throughout the entire affair (he never wanted a conference committee) and his fellow sociopaths are supporting him. Ultimately Budget Chief Ryan doesn’t want any budgets and is happy with the ongoing gridlock and sequester cuts.
For 30 years the conservative movement has paradoxically denounced government as both wildly incompetent and a dangerous predator. Either version is used as needed. But as a result, they believe that a majority of Americans now want a federal gub’mint that accomplishes nothing and doesn’t “interfere” with anything. As far as I can see, the white working class is completely on board with these goals as a result of 3 decades of corporate media propaganda.
Thus conservatives have almost no “positive” legislative goals (other than advancing new gun rights). Their goals are almost wholly negative–to repeal existing legislation and cut funding for federal programs other than “defense”. They’ll cut income taxes whenever they can. It’s a fairly limited program, mostly revolving around hobbling and wrecking existing federal agencies and starving the beast. That’s the method in their madness. They “win” by wrecking the gub’mint, especially with a Dem admin to ruin and embarrass.
Grifters (and plain capitalism) feed on their desperation. They get told what they want to hear, not what they need to hear.
Yeah, I also don’t think this is about them being dumb or crazy. IMHO, the Repubs are acting in desperation. They’re running out of workable options to hang onto power and they get cornered and try anything at hand.
Desperation: It’s both good news that their practical options are dwindling and bad news that they might resort to even more destructive action and continue to put American lives at risk.
But there is something more profound at work. You’re certainly right that “there’s a method to their madness”. But even admitting, for the sake of argument, the flawless execution of that method, they seem to be reaching an existential barrier, for the following reasons:
(1) The method is not having the effect it is supposed to have. Its only basis in reality is that it appeals to a certain kind of cultural psychology. But it seems that the majority of Americans do not have, or have sufficiently transcended, that kind of cultural psychology. To the majority, the GOP gives off very bad vibes. You can analyze it, as we are doing. But vibes don’t require analysis, people pick up on them.
(2) But the GOP method has no basis in any other kind of reality. On the PR front, it is a collection of “shiny objects”, “look over here not over there”, various “magical” techniques, demonization, etc., all based on exaggeration, distortion, and downright lies.
On the “governing” front it consists of little besides blockage and attempted extortion.
Because there is no internal coherency, the GOP over time finds itself without any coherent direction, and certainly no positive direction. It is fragmented and dissociative. Internally, it is falling apart.
This matches the profile of the sociopathic personality. Sociopaths are deceitful, manipulative, impulsive, aggressive, reckless, lacking in empathy and remorse. But inside, they are hollow, there’s no “there” there. According to Martha Stout, The Sociopath Next Door (2005), such people are disproportionately attracted to political careers.
Sociopaths never give up. They never apologize for anything, never admit they are wrong, never stop manipulating or bullying. On the contrary, when confronted they will double down and continue trying to manipulate and extort. This is exactly what we are seeing.
So if you are fixated on them and their “useful idiot” followers, you will find no sign that they are giving up, and many people misinterpret that. They think it means they are unstoppable. Actually, even while making as much noise and trouble as they can, they are in a tailspin, but you have to look at the big picture to see that.
True, behind the COP are the 1-percenters. But if the GOP is supposed to be the key to their victory, they’ve got some problems ahead.
Well, since the country continues to degrade I think I have to call them on balance successful. And really, what else matters?
I of course agree with much of what you argue, and suspect that the current principles of “conservatism” appeal to the sociopathic personality. All one has to do is watch one of these guys (like Ryan) on teevee.
I wrote more about what I think Repubs imagine they are “accomplishing” above. I suspect that their assessment of their efforts is not coherent because in opinion polls they are in the crapper. If they are doing what the people want by paralyzing and starving the beast, why aren’t they more popular? They can’t answer that, but they know the beast must be starved, that is a given and that’s what they are doing. Repubs seem never to care much about their fairly widespread unpopularity, decade after decade, and they have been a force for nihilism and failure for quite a long time now.
So I’m pretty reluctant to conclude that they are “in a tailspin”, although it’s heartening to see that many informed people think so. I think Repubs have concentrated enormous effort and resource in undermining the already feeble forces of democracy in this country, and with their Gerrymandered House, plutocrat money and corporate media stooges they aren’t really too concerned about their “methods” not finding much support in national opinion polls. They have insulated themselves from “democracy” and “politics” to a large degree, and can as a result concentrate on their madness undisturbed by the voters.
I understand what you’re saying. They are doing a lot of damage to the country, for sure. But let’s not ignore that are also doing a lot of damage to themselves in the process. The question then is, which you think is more likely to survive, the GOP or the USA?
I voted yesterday in the Pennsylvania primaries. There wasn’t much on the ballot. A couple of judges and some local school board seats. Anyway, look at the turnout at my precinct.
10.79% turnout. Go America!!
BRANDON: Then my love turned to hate–boundless and unfathomable. (Enter Slick L., Booney R., cautiously.) –It has increased with years until it is a consuming passion. I failed in my aim once, I will try again, (draws pistol, Slick and Booney disarm him — he stands scowling with hate) Foiled again! Curse my ill luck.
(Benjamin Hollenbeck, After Ten Years, or, The Maniac Wife, 1885.)
Judges and school board, that’s why. Who knows anything about judges? You can read the bar association recommendations but that only tells you who the lawyers want. In any case usually both candidates get “qualified” ratings. So, in the most recent election (March), I voted against the Judge that the GOP-controlled Chicago Tribune said screamed at lawyers and defendants and three things at them and against the Judge that the GOP-controlled but more moderate Daily Herald said only worked half days and was under a higher court court order to keep regular hours. The nominally Democratic Sun-Times declined to make recommendations. Why do we elect judges and not appoint them like the Federal Government? We could keep terms but have them appointed anyway.
As for school board, it’s really hard to find out information. It was hard enough to find out who the incumbents were. I really had to dig. I finally found a local paper, Streamwood Examiner, that had interviewed the candidates, mostly about using tax-payer dollars to support private schools. After eliminating the candidates who are in favor of robbing the public schools to support private for-profit schools and the incumbents who have been wasting literally millions of dollars defending their re-segregation of the Elgin High schools, I was left with fewer candidates than votes! Again, why are we voting for these clowns? Why don’t we have a state-wide school system so that we have one man, the Governor, to blame for them?
So don’t blame the voters for not voting. If God intended us to vote, He would have given us candidates.
Why don’t you or someone you think would be good run for school board next time?
The bar for ballot access is usually pretty low for that elected position.
I’m covered by the Hatch Act.
OK, with that being said I’m sure you know someone who would be really good.
This is something working on locally too, I’m sick of the same people who don’t accomplish anything keep getting elected. It’s a longer term problem to fix but it feels better to do something than what I was doing before.
Amen, brother. When I retire in a couple of years, I may do as you say. I think you are also in the Chicago Suburbs, are you not? I may call on you to help. Contrawise, if you run for anything, please post it here. If I can, I’ll work for you. If I can’t work, I’ll certainly donate.
Yeah I’m out in Aurora, the local party is a disaster. I’m trying to figure out my next move.
Thanks for the offer, I’ll let you know and likewise for you.
and keep us posted, both of you!!!
of course
OK
they played themselves.
I’m glad that we don’t have to deal with this until the fall.
that means that they cohorts in the MSM will have to find something else to lie about during the summer.
I’m done spending any time congratulating ourselves for being less crazy or more competent than Republicans. Crooks and Liars has a clip of Elizabeth Warren exposing the weasleyness of Obama’s Treasury Department in spouting platitudes but doing nothing real to fix Too Big to Fail. The largest banks have gotten 30% larger under Obama’s watch. None of us has the power to influence politicians like Paul Ryan, so discussions like this will never have consequence. But collectively, we can put pressure on the Obama administration to do what’s right and maybe have some influence on our options for 2016. Every post that repeats what we already know about Republican insanity/avarice/hypocrisy without holding the Democrats accountable for their incompetence/avarice/cowardice is in my opinion contributing to the problem.
http://crooksandliars.com/karoli/elizabeth-warren-puts-new-treasury-secretar
I agree with you, blue moon, except for one point. Obama will never run again so he has no reason to care what any (or every) voter thinks. THAT’s what’s wrong with term limits.
This is a wild overstatement too frequently made. Obama shows plenty of evidence that he cares quite a bit about what voters think.
He has selected a set of prioritized issues that voters continue to find reasonably popular. He’s over 50% in popularity and around that % in approval, even though lots of things are fucked up and bullshit because the GOP likes it that way.
Don’t confuse Barack with W. Bush, who doubled down on hated policies in his second term, which led to comically disastrous results which showed the contempt for voters you complain of. That’s not an automatic consequence of term limits, however.
Besides, what’s the alternative- no term limits for the POTUS? No, no thank you.