I told you Chris Christie had no good options. He called a press conference today to announce that he had set the general election for Frank Lautenberg’s Senate seat for October 16th, just two weeks before his own general election day. Why would he do that when he could have set it on the same day as his own and saved the state 25 million dollars? Because the likely Democratic nominee, Newark Mayor Cory Booker, is black, and Christie fears that Booker’s candidacy will drive higher than normal black turnout.
Faced with the choice of taking a hit for wasting $25 million in an atmosphere of fiscal austerity or dealing with higher black turnout, Christie chose the wasting money route. Flip a coin on that one, but his decision also infuriated Washington Republicans who think he just threw away a chance for them to hold Lautenberg’s seat for a year and a half and maybe even win the full term. At issue were conflicting statutes in New Jersey law that could have been interpreted in a way that would have allowed Christie’s appointment to serve until November 2014. That would have allowed a candidate to become better known, establish some seniority, and to raise a ton of money. But the primary is now set for August 13th, barely over two months away. And both Cory Booker and Rep. Frank Pallone are loaded with cash, while no Republican has had time to prepare.
Christie’s next decisions are who to pick for the seat and whether or not that person will be a placeholder or the person he expects to compete for and win the Republican nomination. The National Journal has some ideas about who is under consideration.
According to one Republican source familiar with Christie’s thinking, the leading names are former Gov. Tom Kean Sr., state Sen. Tom Kean Jr., state Sen. Joe Kyrillos, and Lt. Gov. Kim Guadagno. If he opted for a Republican to hold the seat but not run for election, Kean Sr. would be the most logical choice.
The Dean of New Jersey’s Republican Party is Tom Kean Sr. He’s best known for co-chairing the 9/11 Commission, and he has a moderate reputation. Picking him will only anger people who don’t want a placeholder. Christie’s Lieutenant Governor, Kim Guadagno, is a very attractive candidate but she’s pro-choice and may not want to be pushed out of her current position for a five-month gig in the U.S. Senate. The state Senators would have similar concerns and might only be interested in taking the seat if they were allowed to run for it in August.
The Washington Republicans think that it no longer matters who wins the August nomination because they’ll just get slaughtered by Booker (or Pallone), but that doesn’t mean that there aren’t any New Jersey Republicans who’d like to take their chances. They won’t be happy if Christie doesn’t pick a placeholder.
Probably the best that Christie can do is keep any surge of black voters out of his contest and select Tom Kean Sr. for a temporary position. That will anger the fewest people both locally and nationally.
If he picks a pro-choice woman for a placeholder position after rejecting the requests that he strong-arm in his appointee for an 18 month gig, his national prospects are going to be mortally wounded.