It’s interesting to look at Liz Sly’s Washington Post piece on the situation in Syria and how it is benefiting Iran. There is a subtlety about it, but it defines the war in Syria as basically a proxy war between Iran and the United States, and then tells us that we’re losing. Take a look at her opening:
As fighters with Lebanon’s Hezbollah movement wage the battles that are helping Syria’s regime survive, their chief sponsor, Iran, is emerging as the biggest victor in the wider regional struggle for influence that the Syrian conflict has become.
With top national security aides set to meet at the White House on Wednesday to reassess options in light of recent setbacks for the rebels seeking Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s ouster, the long-term outcome of the war remains far from assured, analysts and military experts say.
This makes it appear like we are openly aligned with the rebels, but that is not the case. We are formally opposed to the continued rule of the Assad regime, and we are working with some rebel groups, but we are just as opposed to some of the rebels (probably the majority of them) as we are to the Iran-backed regime.
As the article notes, the war in Syria has morphed into a sectarian conflict that pits Sunnis against Shiities and Alawites. It is neither advisable nor possible for us to take the side of the Sunnis in a sectarian religious war. That would pit us not only against Iran, but against Iraq. Plus, it’s the wrong thing to do. To see why, all you have to do is look at another article the Washington Post is currently running about a village massacre that Sunni rebels carried out yesterday in the border area with Iraq.
About 60 civilians and pro-government fighters were killed Tuesday as rebels stormed the largely Shiite village of Hatla in Deir al-Zour province, near the Iraqi border, according to the Britain-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights. Videos released by the activist group showed rebels boasting of burning the houses of “rejectionists,” a derogatory term for Shiites.
Do we want to be associated with that? I don’t think so.
Here is how Ms. Sly defines the problem:
“This is an Iranian fight. It is no longer a Syrian one,” said Mustafa Alani, director of security and defense at the Dubai-based Gulf Research Council. “The issue is hegemony in the region.”
The ramifications extend far beyond the borders of Syria, whose location at the heart of the Middle East puts it astride most of the region’s fault lines, from the Israeli-Palestinian conflict to the disputes left over from the U.S. occupation of Iraq, from the perennial sectarian tensions in Lebanon to Turkey’s aspirations to restore its Ottoman-era reach into the Arab world.
An Iran emboldened by the unchecked exertion of its influence in Syria would also be emboldened in other arenas, Alani said, including the negotiations over its nuclear program, as well as its ambitions in Iraq, Lebanon and beyond.
“If Iran wins this conflict and the Syrian regime survives, Iran’s interventionist policy will become wider and its credibility will be enhanced,” he added.
From Iran’s point of view, sustaining Assad’s regime also affirms Iran’s control over a corridor of influence stretching from Tehran through Baghdad, Damascus and Beirut to Maroun al-Ras, a hilltop town on Lebanon’s southern border that offers a commanding view of northern Israel, according to Mohammad Obaid, a Lebanese political analyst with close ties to Hezbollah.
That sounds pretty bad, doesn’t it. But let’s look at another part of the reporting.
The leading religious authority in Saudi Arabia and al-Qaeda chief Ayman al-Zawahiri have in the past week called on Sunnis to volunteer to fight in Syria, marking a potentially dangerous convergence that could herald an intensified influx of Sunni jihadis.
In a fight between Iran and al-Qaeda, do we pick al-Qaeda?
Now, look at this next bit:
“Politically we’re screwed, and militarily we’re taking a pounding,” [Amr al-Azm, a history professor at Shawnee State University in Ohio] said. “America talked the talk while Iran walked the walk.”
This would not be the first time that Iran has outmaneuvered the United States since the Iranian revolution brought Shiite clerics to power in Tehran in 1979.
Now we’ve been “outmaneuvered.” Now it is “we” who are taking a pounding. How did that happen? When did Syria become our war? It seems like it’s the Sunnis’ war to me.
Saudi Arabia, the leading Sunni power in the region and Washington’s closest Arab ally, is unlikely to tolerate an ascendant Iran even if the United States chooses to remain aloof, said Jamal Khashoggi, director of the al-Arab television channel.
“It is a serious blow in the face of Saudi Arabia, and I don’t think the Saudis will accept it. They will do something, whether on their own or with America,” he said. “Syria is the heart of the Arab world, and for it to be officially conquered by the Iranians is unacceptable.”
Whoa. Iran is “conquering” Syria now? I think what he means is that the Shiites are winning. Because there aren’t a bunch of Persians in tanks in Damascus. The country has been a close ally of Iran for decades, and it will remain that way as long as Assad is in power. Despite being a heavily Sunni country, it’s been run by a tiny Shi’a-splinter sect called the Alawites for as long as I can remember.
It is a gigantic failure of analysis to look at Syria as a proxy war between Iran and the United States of America. We would like to diminish Iran’s power and influence, it’s true. But not at the expense of taking sides in a sectarian fight where the most effective fighters on our side are indistinguishable from al-Qaeda. You may have noticed that the Israelis are not clamoring for us to get involved in Syria.
After making implied criticisms that Obama has restricted weapon transfers to the rebels, Ms. Sly concludes with something that really ought to undermine the rest of her article.
The chief significance of the battle for Qusair lay in the powerful symbolism of the role played by Hezbollah, which eliminated any doubt that the Syrian conflict has turned into a proxy war for regional influence, said Charles Lister, an analyst with IHS Jane’s defense consultancy in London.
“External actors are becoming increasingly decisive and pivotal in terms of where the conflict is going,” he said. And if the United States increased its support for the rebels, Assad’s allies would be likely to boost theirs, he added.
“The conflict has regionalized, and, unfortunately, that gives it the potential to drag on longer,” he said. “As long as one side increases its assistance, the other will see the need to do so, too.”
If Mr. Lister is correct, by providing the rebels with a better arsenal we can escalate the level of carnage, but we can’t settle the matter.
And why would we want to, when we don’t like either side of the conflict?
The only sensible thing to do is what we are doing, which is try to limit the carnage and avoid steps that will increase the sectarian nature of these hostilities in the Middle East.
But, when official Washington reports on this conflict this way, as a proxy war that we’re losing, that puts a lot of pressure on the Obama administration to do the wrong thing and get us involved in a developing war of religion where we don’t have any allies.
There is a certain type of American exceptionalism, popular on the left, that insists that any situation in which the United States plays any role is, by definition, primarily about the United States. The Syrian Civil War is a good example.
You frequently see people insisting that the Saudi and Qatari governments are acting as cats paws of the US in backing radical Sunni rebel groups, or even writing them out of the picture entirely and claiming that the US itself is providing arms to the Nusra Front.
There is a proxy war going vs. Iran in Syria, but it’s being waged by the Sunni Arab kingdoms.
Good comment. There are lots of things going on in the world that are not about the USA, even some in which we play a peripheral role. Thanks for your concise comment on this point.
Like your image of the false “cats paw” argument.
My worry is that US policy-makers are so close to key Sunni Arab kingdom officials that the paw starts leading the cat around. “Nice little naval base you have there in the Persian Gulf, partner. Too bad if we have to tell you to leave.”
It is very troubling that Bandar Bush is head of Saudi intelligence.
We are in way too deep with those kingdoms, and the hostage-taking you mention (on full display in the administration’s uncharacteristic non-response to the Bahraini Arab Spring) is only one problem it brings us.
The other is terrorism. You frequently see the claim made that American military action creates terrorists, but if you look at who has been leading al Qaeda and who has been carrying out terrorist attacks against us, it’s not Iraqis or Afghans or Iranians. It is overwhelmingly Saudis, Egyptians, Yemenis, Emeratis, Kuwaitis, and people from other repressive American allies.
After making implied criticisms that Obama has restricted weapon transfers to the rebels, Ms. Sly concludes with something that really ought to undermine the rest of her article. ….
Lil’ Luke tweeted out Ms. Sly’s article. I tweeted back saying it’s glad he enjoyed such shitty reporting and that he should read your post instead.
>>It is a gigantic failure of analysis to look at Syria as a proxy war between Iran and the United States of America.
This stuff isn’t intended as analysis, it’s intended as propaganda.
>>when official Washington reports on this conflict this way, as a proxy war that we’re losing, that puts a lot of pressure on the Obama administration to do the wrong thing and get us involved in a developing war of religion where we don’t have any allies.
Correct! That’s the intention. This isn’t a proxy war yet, but the people writing and publishing this shitty “analysis” want it to be.
Another delayed “gift” from Dumbaya and his puppet-master, Darth Cheney.
And whodathunk it?
Not only was Bill Kristol wrong about potential religious sectarian violence in Iraq, but in the entire Middle East.
Say it ain’t so!!!
We just got out of Iraq, and we won’t be out of Afghanistan until at least next year, so only sociopathic stupid imbeciles would want us to get involved in another battle in the Middle East – aka: Chickenhawk Neocons.
Bush destabilize a an already unstable region. This Sunni and Shiite hatred was around a long time before the U.S. Its like Booman said a religious war.
Unfortunately our invasion of Iraq was a catalyst. It lit the fuse. We have no friends in Syria and it will end up like Egypt just another theocracy. We already lost in that region by supporting the dictators in the first place. Bush was the explosion of stupid where we lost any remaining credibility.
I can remember before Dubya’s invasion of Iraq the warnings that this would destroy Saddam’s somewhat secular regime and set the Shia and Sunnis against one another.
Then came the bombs and the “powerdrill to the head” stuff. And when the dust settled the Shia majority was there as an ally to Iran and forming a bridge to Assad’s Syria. And now the West is siding with the jihadists against Assad’s relatively secular government.
Don’t be mistaken about who “we” support. “We” if you are talking about our intelligence agencies support the jihadists. Obama may be hesitant about overt aid, but the “revolution” wouldn’t have started without the CIA and the Saudis. Obama may be able to stop official aid, but since Congress voted to suspend aid to the Contras back in the early 80s our intelligence agencies have developed their workarounds. I find it curious that one of the rebels’ weapon pipelines is exactly the reverse of the old 1980s CIA heroin pipeline through the Bekaa Valley.
I’m sure wherever Monzer al-Kassar is jailed he’s dreaming of all those weapons sales through the Bekaa.
Remember the Happy Hikers who were arrested across the border in Iran a few years before? One was hanging out in Yemen and the other two were doing something Syria. I suspect they were part of the team laying the groundwork for the current troubles in Syria.
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Good reporting BooMan.
I have been writing about the quagmire for over a year and the immense atrocities from both sides. I strongly protested the role Hillary Clinton played as the policy she followed was a template of the Bosnia conflict (partner Bill) and the recent intervention in Libya.
The major role you didn’t mention is NATO ally Turkey with President Gül and PM Erdogan. Domestic policy of Turkey is strong conservative with further Islamisation. The protests as a result. Erdogan and his AKP party were shunned by the Western powers UK, France and Italy and denied an entry into the European Union. Too many obstacles including the division of Cyprus and political skirmishes with Israeli politicians PM Netanyahu and FM Liberman. Turkey has turned around and is now looking South and to the East, the Muslim states and strong economic ties with the Kurds in Iraq.
The political opposition is more divided than ever, including a division between Qatar -Muslim Brotherhood- and Saudi Arabia -Salafists and Wahhabists- see recent failed conference.
As much as I would like to agree with your assertion that we are not “openly aligned with the rebels,” both in policy and in fact, your careful parsing seems to acknowledge the role we have been playing covertly as facilitator and guarantor of security for more active actors such as Turkey, Jordan and the Gulf states. Not to mention that various departments or factions within our own government may not have always been as reluctant as the White House has seemed.
As grateful as I am that we have not already become more entangled in the Syrian conflict I don’t see how we are insulated from the repercussions; an assertive Hezbollah, a dysfunctional and radicalised Syria and a triumphant Iran. Turkey and Jordan, specifically, have bet heavily on margin that this would be a geopolitical win for them and appear to have lost. These are all realities that will have to be dealt with within the context of existing partnerships and alliances which will inevitably place further demands on the US.
Yes, I agree with your comment.
Our regional allies are Sunni, with the exception of whatever relationship we have with Iraq. Turkey (a NATO member), Jordan, and Saudi Arabia all want Assad to go, as do the emirates including the ones that host our naval and air bases. Egypt is Sunni. Even Libya is Sunni.
So, the temptation is heavy to simply throw our weight to the Sunni side of the fighting in Syria. And we’ve done a little bit of that. We’ve done some contingency planning, too. Forces in Jordan, for example. We’re worried about stocks of chemical weapons.
But the truth is that we also have to consider Israel’s opinion. We have to consider Iraq’s opinion. We have to deal with Russia. And we don’t want a Sunni victory if it means a bunch of Wahhabi warriors commit genocide against the Alawites and Shiites and then turn into implacable foes of Israel. For whatever his faults, Assad has been a manageable problem for Israel.
Managing our alliances and interests in this situation isn’t easy, but fueling a regional religious war is definitely the worst decision we could make.
the Sunni side of the fighting in Syria
I’m not sure how much sense it makes to talk about there being one Sunni side in the Syrian revolution. It’s a diverse revolution with multiple competing factions, some of which are jihadists, some of which are moderate Islamist, some of which are Kurdish nationalist, and some of which are relatively liberal and secular.
The US has been working to actively undermine some segments and promote others.
Yes, it is complicated.
However, if we are going to talk about mistakes of analysis, I think the greater sin is to continue to see this conflict as limited to Syria and Syrian politics. It is now a regional war where the most important factor is whether or not the government in Syria remains in Shi’a-friendly hands. It is no longer about corruption or democracy or human rights or whatever it was at the outset that sparked the resistance. It is a fight of Sunnis against Shiites and Alawites that has now spread to Lebanon and is influencing events in Iraq. Simply put, Sunni Arabs want to slaughter the Alawites and their Shiite allies, and the feeling has become mutual.
Obviously, we’d like to see the Assad regime go, but that will not end the fighting. It will probably just create the conditions for a truly terrifying level of sectarian cleansing.
So, what to do?
For starters, don’t help escalate the level of violence by flooding the country with weapons. Do what we can to reduce sectarian feelings. Try to get Syrians who want to live together in an ecumenical society to negotiate with the more hardline parties.
But we should not mistake this conflict for a political one. It has become a religious one. And we have no stake in a dispute between Sunnis and Shiites, even if the balance of alliances makes it tempting to favor the Sunnis.
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BREAKING NEWS: Syria Crossed Obama’s Red Line
I think you are calling this one correctly as a Hyperbole alert.
Can’t you see the pom-poms waving and the innocent tears of despair in “We are taking a pounding?”
It seems to me that it is the Syrians who are taking a pounding–regardless of their political choices.
The theme song for the last half of the twentieth and into the twenty-first:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tj1wpNuQRaM