There’s a talking point making the rounds in Republican circles that the Democrats and the administration secretly want the effort to pass immigration reform to fail so that they can go to the Latino community and point their fingers at the GOP and get an even greater share of the Latino vote. I think it’s an inaccurate talking point. I think the Democrats would like to get immigration reform done and then go to the Latino community and take credit for it. It’s true that either outcome is likely to help the Democrats, but it’s not the Dems’ fault that the Republicans are in a no-win situation.
Another shiny object that has hypnotized the right is yesterday’s Washington Examiner piece by David Drucker in which he “reports” that Speaker Boehner will not hold a vote on immigration reform unless the majority of Republicans in the House support it. If this were true, immigration reform could be given its burial rites today.
House Speaker John Boehner is not going to bring a comprehensive immigration-reform plan to the floor if a majority of Republicans don’t support it, sources familiar with his plans said.
“No way in hell,” is how several described the chances of the speaker acting on such a proposal without a majority of his majority behind him.
Once again, I will discuss how a bill becomes a law. No bill can become a law unless and until both the House and Senate approve it with completely identical language. When the president signs a bill and makes it into a law, he only signs one bill. He does not sign a Senate version or a House version. He signs a bill that both have agreed to.
The Senate looks like it will probably pass a bill. It is less clear that the House will pass a bill. However, if they do, the House bill will look nothing like the Senate bill. It’s likely that the Senate will pass one big comprehensive bill, while it’s possible that the House will pass several small, non-comprehensive bills.
So, let’s game this out.
To get a law we need to go through the following steps:
1. The Senate passes a bill.
2. The House passes a bill.
3. The Senate votes to assign conferees to negotiate with the House.
4. The House votes to assign conferees to negotiate with the Senate.
5. The Conference Committee crafts a negotiated bill.
6. The Senate passes the Conference Report.
7. The House passes the Conference Report.
8. Congress sends the bill to the president
9. The president signs the bill.
When House aides say that there is no way in hell that Boehner will allow a vote that the majority of his conference doesn’t support, they are talking about Step 2, above. They are not necessarily talking about Step 4, above. And they are not talking about Step 7 at all.
The key to understanding this process is that the majority of the Republicans in the House will never agree to a bill that the majority of the Democrats or the administration can support. That is baked in the cake, and it’s the biggest obstacle to passing immigration reform. If there were not a way around that problem, there would be no point in working on the issue in the first place.
Boehner could acknowledge this openly up front and seek a comprehensive bill at Step 2 that relies on mainly Democrats to pass. But he doesn’t need to do that and it would antagonize his caucus. So, he will pass something that most Democrats oppose and then move to Step 4, the assignment of conferees to negotiate with the Senate. In the Conference Committee, the goal will be to craft something that the president can sign. If they can’t do that, then the effort will fail. However, in crafting something the president can sign, they will be jettisoning most of the House bill and thereby losing the support of the majority of House Republicans.
When the Conference Committee completes its work, it will go back to the House and Senate for votes on final passage. It is only at this point that Boehner will have to allow a vote on a bill that the majority of his caucus does not support. This is literally the only conceivable way that the legislation can pass. And it’s completely possible that this process could cost Boehner his speakership.
However, we can imagine how nasty that process would be. A large part of the reason that there is momentum to pass something in the Senate is because the Senate Republicans understand that they need to stop looking hostile to the Latino community if they want to retake control. If they succeed in passing something only to see the House Republicans remove their leader over it, the whole effort will have been a waste. Democrats will get all the credit for reform and the GOP will look more hostile than ever.
In any case, if the Senate Republican leadership didn’t think that Boehner would enter into conference and ultimately allow a vote on a bill that a minority of his majority supports, they wouldn’t be sticking their necks out now. But, in the short term, Boehner is going to imply that he won’t do it. And, in the short term, he will be telling the truth.
