I don’t really know that much about Senator Joe Manchin of West Virginia. I know that he was a popular governor. I know that he’s probably the most conservative Democrat in the Senate. I know he likes to appear in television ads with a hunting rifle. But where does he really stand? I’m not sure.
I noticed that he was very emotional after he met with the survivors and families of the Newtown Massacre. I think he made a commitment to help them find some solace and to do something to lessen the incidence of gun violence. The common wisdom is that a Democrat in West Virginia needs an ‘A’ rating from the National Rifle Association, but Manchin has decided to go to war with them. He’s running ads that ask his constituents to call the NRA and demand that they support criminal background checks for gun purchases.
I think Greg Sargent is making a little to much of this development, but it is significant. Sargent argues:
If it works, Manchin could end up proving that an NRA onslaught can be survived and even defeated, which could put some backbone in other red state Democrats going forward.
The problem is in defining what Mr. Sargent means by “works.” If he means that Manchin can challenge the NRA, get away with it, and embolden other red state Democrats to support gun violence control legislation, then we’ll be waiting a long time because Manchin doesn’t face the voters again until 2018. In other words, how would a red state Democrat know if Manchin successfully stood up to the NRA before we get the verdict from the voters?
On the other hand, if Sargent means that Manchin might actually get a background check bill enacted into law, I suppose that is possible. After all, that is the issue we care about at the moment. But it kind of presupposes that other red state Democrats will gain courage from Manchin’s example. They won’t be acting with any assurances that they won’t pay a potentially fatal political price.
That’s why I don’t buy David Hawkins argument, either.
[B]efore he can genuinely hope to win over any of the senators seen as persuadable, he’ll have to offer evidence that they, too, can survive the NRA’s attack ad onslaught.
So fighting his own rhetorical war now, with the argument that no law-abiding gun owner’s right to bear arms would be infringed on by more background checks, is what Manchin may view as the best way to help the larger cause.
Again, it’s really the former rather than the latter part of that argument that I don’t agree with. There’s really no way for Manchin to “prove” that he can survive the onslaught on the NRA’s negative ads until he wins reelection five years from now. But, what he can do is lead by example and show political courage. It’s easier to show courage five years out. Senators Mark Pryor of Arkansas and Mark Begich of Alaska have to face the voters next year. They have Mayor Bloomberg on their case. So, when they look at Manchin, they can perhaps see someone with the balls they seem to have misplaced and a strategy that might work for them, too. But they have no proof it would work for them. It seems easier to just dismiss Bloomberg as a big city ethnic mayor who doesn’t understand “real” America’s love affair with guns and ammunition.
That’s what we’d expect Manchin to do, too. But that isn’t what he’s doing. Other people know him better than I do, but I think he’s sincere. And I think he’s providing leadership and a good example. And courage.
I have to say I’ve been admiring him too, lately. He’s the last pol you’d think would want to be associated with gun control, yet he was out in front after Newtown with Manchin-Toomey (such a weird political couple). He’s got guts. No one expected him to take this kind of risk, especially after his famous ad of him “shooting” climate change won him election in 2010. You’d think it’d be Schumer or one of the CT Senators, but no, Manchin of WV.
I think he may also be revealing himself to be a very savvy pol. He was after all a two-term Democratic Governor with a 70% approval rating in a rapidly reddening state, who first won election to the Senate against the 2010 tsunami by a 10 fucking point margin.
So I suspect he has weighed the political calculations here too and believes he can make them work for him. I think he thinks he can win on this issue. Because if he is going to war with the NRA, he must know he must either win or die.
I hope he’s right, and I suspect he may be.
And le bon dieu knows that with all the horrible examples running around in Washington these days, a good one is heartening. Manchin’s next election may be five years away, but the NRA has shown it neither forgives nor forgets.
I think it’s really important for the vast majority of sensible Americans who would like to reduce the daily carnage from firearms to support Manchin and demonstrate to the chattering chuckleheads that the NRA isn’t the invulnerable lobby they think it is.
http://www.boomantribune.com/story/2013/6/21/02223/1182
Let’s be clear about Manchin and WV. The trending red characterization is only based on Obama and carbon/climate concerns. With another President, you would not see that. The state is widely democratic and Manchin (from the northern part of the state) is part of that tradition. Coal and related jobs is greater than under Bush, but Obama gets no credit. Manchin is going to fight for the state’s main industry; but so would any other office holder.
In a perfect world, we would have transitioned or done the research for scrubbing tech by now; but that would have meant following Jimmy Carter’s advice, and we can’t have that. For the folks who say “retrain”, good luck. Look at McDowell Co. for what decades of inattention did and what will happen . And there won’t be any money for such programs without a national lawsuit like tobacco, which is funding the transitioning in Southside Va and NC.
While everyone fears the NRA in other parts of the country, I just don’t see their power in WV. Here everyone likes guns, buys guns, trades guns and they don’t need the NRA to tell they “go out and buy”. Yes, there has been a run on AR15s, but that will taper off. The other purchases are regular and ongoing. Manchin has a track record to tell the NRA to go to hell and show his independence. And most of the state will go along with him. What will hurt him during an election will being seen to betray mineral extraction industry.
I don’t know the man to say if he was really affected by the school shootings, but knowing the history and family oriented culture in the state, Manchin would have seen it like a big mine disaster, only with kids dying. He would have related to family trauma and if a low cost/pain fix could be applied. He would be for it. That he see’s a big impersonal organization fighting to keep things as they are, well all the better for a fight.
Now if he would apply the same ethic to coal companies, he would be a better politician.
Ridge