With some initial polling showing Arkansas incumbent Senator Mark Pryor comfortable ahead in his reelection race, I guess it is time to take a very preliminary look at the 2014 Senate outlook. It’s a bad year for the Democrats both because they have to defend more seats and because they are defending several in red states while having two opportunities (New Jersey and Maine) to pick up seats in blue states.
Currently, there are 52 Democrats plus two independents (Bernie Sanders of Vermont and Angus King of Maine) who caucus with the Democrats, and there are 46 Republicans. Because the vice-president breaks ties in the Senate, the Republicans need 51 seats (a net gain of five) to win control of the chamber. However, there will be a special election this fall in New Jersey in which the Democrats (most likely, Newark Mayor Cory Booker) are highly favored. See, it’s most like a net gain of six seats that the Republicans will need to wrest control of the upper chamber from Harry Reid.
To do an analysis, it’s best to start with the easiest calls. Which seats are unlikely to change hands in terms of party control?
SAFE
Alabama- Sen. Jeff Sessions (R) is a sub-mental racist, but he won last time with 63% of the vote and no one has yet emerged to challenge him. I see no signs that he is even remotely vulnerable.
Colorado- Sen. Mark Udall (D) won his freshman contest with only 53% of the vote, but the Dems are ascendant in Colorado and no strong contenders have emerged to challenge him.
Delaware- Sen. Chris Coons (D) took over Joe Biden’s seat and has acquitted himself very well. His committee assignments on Appropriations, Budget, Foreign Relations, and Judiciary speak for themselves. He’s a man on the rise.
Hawai’i (special election, Class III)- Governor Neil Abercrombie disregarded Sen. Daniel Inouye’s dying wish that he be replaced by Rep. Colleen Hanabusa and appointed his Lt. Gov. Brian Schatz instead. Rep. Hanabusa is going to challenge Sen. Schatz in a primary, and she may well win. But, either way, the seat is unlikely to fall into the Republicans’ hands.
Idaho- Sen. Jim Risch (R) has one of the most conservative voting records in Congress, but the Idaho voters like it that way. He doesn’t have much clout in the Senate and doesn’t have any plum committee assignments. He tends to stay out of the headlines, but that also means that he doesn’t arouse much opposition. Plus, the Democrats have no bench.
Illinois- Majority Whip Dick Durbin (D) will serve as long as he wants to serve. The real question is whether or not he would be able to beat Chuck Schumer in any effort to replace Harry Reid as Majority Leader.
Kansas- Pat Roberts (R) is another fairly anonymous senator, but with positions on the Finance and Rules committees, it’s clear that the Republican leadership values his contributions. He won his last race with 60% of the vote, and he really has little to worry about except his age (he’ll be 78 on Election Day in 2014). I suppose a primary challenger could emerge but the seat is solidly red.
Massachusetts- Sen. Ed Markey just won this seat in a special election, and he’ll hold it.
Minnesota- It may seem strange to say it considering that Sen. Al Franken (D) only won this seat with 42% of the vote, and after a lengthy recount, but Sen. Franken has done nothing to endanger his reelection and he currently faces no serious opposition.
Mississippi- Thad Cochran (R) has been in the Senate since 1979, and he can stay as long as he wants. If he retires, which he might, it’s unlikely but not impossible that the Democrats could pry the seat away. First, they’d need a candidate.
New Hampshire- Popular ex-governor Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D) seems established in the seat and currently faces no serious opposition.
New Mexico- Sen. Tom Udall (D) looks totally unbeatable and New Mexico, with its massive Latino population, is trending strongly against the Republicans.
Oklahoma- Sen. Jim Inhofe (R) will turn 80 a few days after the November 2014 elections, so retirement is a real possibility. But Oklahoma could be the reddest state in the country right now. Unless someone from the Boren family runs on the Democratic side, this seat seems safe for the GOP.
Oregon- Sen. Jeff Merkley won a tight race in 2008, but he’s established himself nicely in the Senate with slots on Appropriations, Banking, Budget, and Environment. Oregon voters are pleased.
Rhode Island- With the pending retirement of Carl Levin (D) of Michigan, Sen. Jack Reed (D) is poised to become the chairman of the Armed Services Committee, and one of the most powerful members of Congress. The former paratrooper and strong liberal is not going anywhere.
Tennessee- Sen. Lamar Alexander (R) gave up a position in the leadership to have more freedom of action. It seems to me like he isn’t enjoying his time in the Senate too much lately, but I haven’t heard any retirement rumors. He can have six more years if he wants them, but I’m not confident that he does. On the other hand, Tennessee has been trending strongly red in recents years and a Democrat will struggle to win even an open seat there.
Texas- Sen. John Cornyn (R) has risen to the number two slot in the Republican Senate leadership and serves as Minority Whip. On the other hand, he only won a mediocre 55% of the vote in 2008, and demographics are beginning to catch up to the Republicans in Texas. Still, until a well-financed opponent emerges, I am keeping this in the safe category.
Virginia- Sen. Mark Warner (D) could be the safest Democrat in the country. But that’s a testament to his personal popularity, not his purple state. I doubt any serious Republican will waste their time challenging him. But does he want to serve another term in the gridlocked Senate?
Wyoming- Sen. Mike Enzi (R) is a low-profile conservative workhorse who is facing an unexpected primary challenge from Liz Cheney. If it gets bloody enough, I suppose a strong Democrat could win here. Alan Simpson predicted that this could happen. I am not so sure.
Now let’s talk about seats that could more plausibly change hands.
COMPETITIVE
Alaska- Sen. Mark Begich (D) won election with 48% against a scandal-plauged Ted Stevens. On paper, he’s one of the most vulnerable members of the Senate. But Alaskans values seniority more than the people of any state except maybe Hawai’i. As you might expect, the Democrats sought to protect Begich with a seat on Appropriations, and it’s a strategy that is likely to work. He hasn’t attracted a strong opponent, as of yet, although Lt. Gov. Mead Treadwell, who has formed an exploratory committee, would provide a challenge.
Arkansas- Sen. Mark Pryor (D), as I mentioned at the top, is looking good in early polling against Rep. Tom Cotton. But this is an increasingly red state that is hostile to the Obama administration, and Cotton is considered a top pick-up. This is a prime opportunity for the Republicans.
Georgia- Sen. Saxby Chambliss (R) is retiring and the Republican primary field to replace him is a frightening assemblage of wingnuts and mouth-breathers that is so extreme that they could easily produce a nominee too radical to beat the Democrats’ candidate, Michelle Nunn. Ms. Nunn is the daughter of popular ex-Sen. Sam Nunn, who is most famous for working with Dick Lugar on Soviet nuclear disarmament issues. Herman Cain aside, Ms. Nunn can count on the near-universal support of black Georgians, so she doesn’t have to cut too deeply into the white vote to win. This could be an even better pick-up opportunity than Kentucky.
Iowa- Sen. Tom Harkin (D) is retiring, unfortunately, but the Democrats have lined up Rep. Bruce Braley (D) as his replacement. So far, the Republicans have produced no one formidable to contest him, but that could change. This modestly blue state keeps comfortably reelecting Chuck Grassley and has a Republican governor, so I can’t call this a safe retention for the Dems. But it’s looks good.
Kentucky- This is the big one. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell is polling terribly in his home state and he has a nasty primary challenge. Secretary of State Alison Lundergan Grimes (D) is a serious threat.