From John Kerry’s opening remarks at the Senate Foreign Relations Committee hearing on Syria yesterday:
KERRY: Now, some people here and there, amazingly, have questioned the evidence of this assault on conscience. I repeat here again today that only the most willful desire to avoid reality can assert that this did not occur as described or that the regime did not do it. It did happen, and the Assad regime did it.
From an interview today:
Mr. Putin expressed doubt about the evidence presented so far by Secretary of State John Kerry and said that more “convincing” results from United Nations inspectors were needed before considering the use of force. “We do not have exact details of what happened,” he said of the situation in Syria. “Is it a chemical weapon or just some chemical pollutants?”
He insisted, however, that it made no sense for Mr. Assad’s government to use chemical weapons given the likelihood it would provoke an international response.
“In our view, it seems completely ridiculous that the regular armed forces, who are actually on the attack and in some places have the so-called rebels surrounded and are finishing them off, that in these conditions” would use prohibited chemical weapons, Mr. Putin said, “understanding quite well that this could be a reason for sanctions on them, including the use of force. It’s just ridiculous. It does not fit into any logic.”
Asked if Russia might support a military strike, Mr. Putin replied, “I do not exclude it.” But he quickly warned against any action without United Nations Security Council authorization.
There we have two differing rhetorical strategies. One asserts a case and insists that it is amazing that anyone doubts it, and the other relies on logic without really addressing the evidence.
Neither approach is convincing.
Let’s look at the rest of Kerry’s opening statement. He said he knew that people are skeptical about government assertions after the Iraq fiasco, which is why the Intelligence Community “scrubbed and rescrubbed the evidence” and released an “unprecedented amount of classified material.” But, do you feel like they’ve released a lot of classified material? I don’t.
They have merely made assertions, like the following:
We can tell you beyond any reasonable doubt that our evidence proves the Assad regime prepared for this attack, issued instructions to prepare for this attack, warned its own forces to use gas masks; that we have physical evidence of where the rockets came from and when.
Not one rocket landed in regime-controlled territory — not one. All of them landed in opposition-controlled or contested territory. We have a map — physical evidence — showing every geographical point of impact. And that is concrete.
Anyone trying to determine the strength and veracity of these claims should start out by reading Gareth Porter’s piece: How Intelligence Was Twisted to Support an Attack on Syria.
Ask yourself, honestly, if John Kerry addressed any of those concerns. He did not. Did he release any classified information to buttress his claims? He did not.
Instead, like Putin, he made an appeal to logic and common sense.
We are certain that none of the opposition has the weapons or capacity to effect a strike of this scale, particularly from the heart of regime territory. Just think about it in logical terms, common sense. With high confidence, our intelligence community tells us that after the strike the regime issued orders to stop and then fretted openly, we know, about the possibility of U.N. inspectors discovering evidence.
So then they began to systematically try to destroy it, contrary to my discussion with their foreign minister who said we have nothing to hide. I said, if you have nothing to hide then let the inspectors in today and let it be unrestricted. It wasn’t. They didn’t. It took four days of shelling before they finally allowed them in under a constrained pre-arranged structure. And we now have learned that the hair and blood samples from first responders in east Damascus has tested positive for signatures of sarin.
So my colleagues, we know what happened. For all the lawyers, for all the former prosecutors, for all those who have sat on a jury, I can tell you that we know these things beyond the reasonable doubt that is the standard by which we send people to jail for the rest of their lives.
There is so much wrong with this that it is daunting to even try to document. Let’s start with the fact that Assad regime had asked U.N. inspectors into the country to investigate their claims that the rebels had used chemical weapons. Follow that up with the fact the U.N. did not formally request that the inspectors be able to investigate the site of the August 21st attacks for four days and that the regime consented to that the next day. Add to this that the inspectors had entered the country to investigate suspected attacks that had occurred months before, but Kerry argued that a five day delay would render any investigation useless. Never mind that inspectors found evidence of the 1988 chemical attacks in Iraqi Kurdistan in 1992. Then Kerry asserts that subsequent artillery barrages in the area were meant to destroy evidence, when the evidence couldn’t be destroyed that way. Also consider that there is no chain of custody of the hair and blood samples that show “signatures of sarin” and that evidence of sarin is not evidence of culpability.
Other evidence is paltry, too. An order to use gas masks could be the result of suspicions that the rebels were preparing a chemical attack. An order to stop shelling could be a matter of confusion. How clearly incriminating the intercepts are cannot be judged unless we are allowed to listen to them.
Kerry makes the extraordinary claim that, amidst a more general artillery barrage, our intelligence agencies have been able to identify the launch-point of each and every chemical rocket. That we know where they landed is not surprising, but that we know which rockets carried the warheads? And, obviously, they can’t tell us how they know that or show us their detailed maps.
There are many, many unanswered questions. Among them, the pattern of fatalities.
Experts noticed yet another anomaly: The number of those treated who survived far outnumbered the dead, contrary to what would be expected in a nerve gas attack. Dr. Ghazwan Bwidany told CBS news August 24 that his mobile medical unit had treated 900 people after the attack and that 70 had died. Medecins Sans Frontieres reported that 3,600 patients had been treated at hospitals in the area of the attack and that 355 had died. Such ratios of survivors to dead were the opposite of what chemical weapons specialists would have expected from a nerve gas attack. Kaszeta told Truthout that the “most nagging doubt” he had about the assumption that a nerve gas attack had taken place is the roughly 10-to-1 ratio of total number treated to the dead. “The proportions are all wrong,” he said. “There should be more dead people.” Johnson agreed. In an actual nerve gas attack, he said, “You’d get some survivors, but it would be very low. This [is] a very low level of lethality.”
This helps explain why Vladimir Putin asked this morning, “Is it a chemical weapon or just some chemical pollutants?” You might consider that a callous question that doesn’t make a difference when faced with hundreds if not thousands of victims. But it matters in terms of capability. When Kerry says that it is our assessment that the rebels did not have access to the chemicals or delivery systems needed to carry out the attacks, he is making certain assumptions about the chemical agent that was used. Those assumptions may be wrong.
I’m going to conclude here, even though I could go on at great length. My point here is not that the Assad regime is innocent. My point is that you can’t win an argument this way. You can’t just say that no one of good faith can disagree with your conclusions, or even doubt them, without showing your evidence. Much of what Kerry has been saying has been simply false, as with the durability of the evidence or the willingness of the Syrian regime to comply with inspections or the reason they were using artillery in the area in the days after the attack.
When you lie about small details, you lose the trust of the people on large details. Assuming that the Intelligence Community is right about Assad’s culpability, John Kerry’s actions amount to geopolitical malpractice. And that’s not even getting into comparing Assad to Hitler, this vote to Munich, and pretending that the U.S. didn’t help Saddam Hussein target his poison gas during the Iraq-Iran War.
But the Senate seemed to like it.
It’s all lies. Obama and Kerry have no credibility. I’m angry at how I’ve been duped in 2004,2008 and 2012 into voting for these liars.
Except Assad and Putin have even less credibility because of their records. And someone has to be right.
Do you see what you are promoting? This is the kind of attitude that feeds off your conspiratorial undertones like a drug.
I’m promoting that Kerry stop acting like he can shut everyone up and carry the day by giving us a mix of demonstrably false arguments, risible assertions, and a mocking refusal to show his work.
Oh, I understand what you are doing. And you know I agree with you about Kerry. I have been here watching this whole performance since your first diary on the subject and I have read them all along with all of your comments.
You’ve been promoting doubt and scepticism from the start and have resisted any number of opportunities to use your own critical thinking to resolve them, sometimes it seems unreasonably. You have carefully distanced yourself from only the most absurd assertions and claims of your readership but have otherwise encouraged conspiratorial intrigues with steadily escalating demands for proof that always stay one tantalising step ahead of what is possible to provide as the story evolves.
It is a dizzying performance with little trails of bread crumbs like ” My point here is not that the Assad regime is innocent” which can be used to retrace your steps when reality comes knocking but lots and lots of “An order to use gas masks could be the result of suspicions that the rebels were preparing a chemical attack.”
That whole argument of the lethality of the agent was discussed here at considerable length including citations from exactly the same sources that Gareth Powers chose to cherry-pick from for his well written but essentially polemic ‘exposé.’
I think a military strike is a really bad idea too and I’m quite certain there are problems with the administration’s case. But it seems to me there is something else going on here which has nothing to do with the abstract pursuit of truth based on the evidence before us.
Activists who fought for decades for “collective security” and global enforcement of the chemical weapons ban and non-proliferation are spinning in their graves; all for the sake of a few postmodern thrills of cosy outrage on the part of your readers.
And consequently any talk of a concerted diplomatic effort, or in fact any response at all, founders on the uncertainty that this wasn’t a false flag operation by our own government or some other nefarious villains in the first place. It is shameful.
“Activists who fought for decades for “collective security” and global enforcement of the chemical weapons ban and non-proliferation are spinning in their graves…”
I don’t agree with this at all. My biggest problem with the current push for a military strike is that we are abandoning “collective security” for a go-it-alone approach.
I’m not thrilled with collective security arrangements we have in place through the UN. The fact that five nations have veto power and can thwart the will of a majority of nations is to me a big drawback. But we ourselves have been willing to invoke that veto more than other nations. And we certainly aren’t willing to give up our veto.
By going it alone, we are violating one principle – collective security – to enforce another. Frankly, I don’t think we should be doing that. We should be going through the processes that we as a nation agreed to when the collective security arrangements were established. And if those processes ultimately lead to no action taken, well, so be it.
That is what we agreed to when we entered into these arrangements.
I can’t resolve my doubts for the simple reason that John Kerry is lying to me and to the public about very central points like:
On top of that, he’s given a likely exaggerated casualty count and made assertions about our complete knowledge of the rocketry and rebels’ access to an as yet unknown chemical agent that strain credulity to the breaking point.
Sorry if being lied to and treated like a dummy makes me less inclined to accept classified assertions, that I can’t see, as making a convincing case beyond any reasonable doubt that we use to put criminals in prison every day.
In fact Kerry’s performance has been so horrible that I am straining to maintain the belief that behind it all is an accurate determination of responsibility. I started out thinking they were foolishly withholding too much information. I am now wobbling on whether they just making a power move.
I am one of those activists.
Acting unilaterally is not my definition of “collective security”.
Oh my god, people aren’t getting in line! What to do!
It doesn’t matter who is right. The only reasons to kill are:
I know a guy who says reason #4 is illegitimate because sex is so easy to come by free. But he’s good looking.
Where is Syria threatening us? The “mushroom cloud” crap? Scratch #1. Assad owes us no blood debt. Scratch #2. #4 doesn’t apply, leaving only #3. If there is money for us in this, let them put their cards on the table.
Definitely should have gone with McCain-Palin. What a mistake.
Should have stayed home or voted Green. In Illinois, one can no longer vote for Mickey Mouse.
Instead, like Putin, he made an appeal to logic and common sense.
Sad thing is, Putin made more sense. Why? Because he asked the question no one has a good answer to. Assad has the rebels on the run. He seems to be winning. So why would Assad authorize the use of chemical weapons? Is Assad sick in the head? Yes, he most certainly is. But what matters most to him is survival. And he won’t survive in the end if the U.S. attacks.
I’ll just leave this here…
I am aware of that but the source is insane and I had trouble pinning down any reality to the underlying leak.
“Trouble pinning down any reality?” The email in question was exposed as a fraud in January. That it is still doing the rounds is a pretty clear indicator of the level of scrutiny afforded to some of the material being repeatedly and incessantly cited to support far-fetched notions.
That’s probably why I couldn’t confirm that the leak was real.
Britam Defence Limited was hacked but the two emails were a forgery, likely by Syrian or Iranian cybergroups. Daily Mail paid a large sum for damages in a libel suit filed by the British company. This “false flag” event has been debunked and was covered by me recently.
The source is Asian News International
…as reported in the UK Daily Mail.
That hardly qualifies as slam dunk evidence.
What I gleaned from yesterday’s performance at the Senate Foreign Relations Committee is that Democrats on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee along with the perennial Republican warhawks are pushing the President into a war that bypasses the UN Security Council.
I can understand Republican motives for wanting President Obama to violate international law in all the ways that the Bush-Cheney regime did, but the only reason I can see for Democratic pushing is overweening fealty to the state of Israel.
We have a Congress that is rushing to once again violate international law of the very institutions that the United States worked so hard to put into place and give legitimacy in the international community. It is stupid and self-defeating.
Against using chemical weapons? Does that not count?
The actions being contemplated do nothing to halt Assad’s use of chemical weapons and have the transparent motivation of regime change without international sanction. The questions yesterday did not focus on how to strip Assad of his chemical weapons but how to topple Assad more quickly. The questions yesterday did not elicit any more information about the evidence. Instead they elicited the Administration’s determination to hide their “slam dunk” evidence from Congress.
The story about suppressing use of chemical weapons is nice and convenient, but lacks credibility now. Had the US had its ally Israel ratify the Chemical Weapons Convention and pushed Myanmar to ratify, the concern about chemical weapons could be seen a more than an excuse to attack. So no, that rationale no longer counts because it likely is not serious.
If the administration wanted regime change they wouldn’t have held out this long to make the case for launching attacks on Syria. There have been calls for well over a year for us to get directly involved with strikes and we haven’t. Like I said before I think people, you included, are still fighting the faulty case Bush made to go to war in Iraq yet some how got authorization anyway.
As for hiding their slam dunk evidence from congress we know there have been closed door briefings. I wouldn’t expect them to air all of the evidence presented in those during a public hearing.
Yes, Tarheel is wrong about withholding evidence from Congress. It’s the people and the world that aren’t seeing their work. Congress is getting classified briefings.
I concur with you that some intelligence and capabilities need to be withheld. But there is plenty that they are asserting that they could show us but have not shown us. And a lot of their argument is transparent and embarrassing bullshit.
Do you have information about the quality of those classified briefings to Congress? Kerry was pretty emphatic with Markey yesterday.
Disagree. A year ago the conventional wisdom was that Assad was losing. It’s only been in the last few months that “Oh my God, Assad is winning!’ has become obvious. That points to the ‘Rush To Judgment’ feeling of this moment. So, no, there was no particular reason to talk about bombing a year ago. And although there has been talk of ‘Assad must go’, the underlying real American program has been to keep warlike conditions going in balance so as to NOT let the rebels actually win. The Israelis might have their own agenda, of course.
As far as the evidence from classified sources is concerned: We know they gobble up everything now, so the very fact that they do is longer a secret. No ‘assets’ were jeopardized in this listening. So not releasing the transcripts doesn’t make sense, once again.
Well, the Ghost of Bushco’s War to Liberate Iraq’s Oil is really not going to be exorcised very soon, and it’s kind of funny the obvious frustration that our national leaders have with that new reality. The intelligence community laid a big, big turd in 2003 and was then happily blamed (by Bushco and the VSP) for the resulting fiasco. But the community was itself happy to be complicit (“It’s a slam dunk!”) in substantiating Cheney’s war of choice and now, surprise, surprise, they are being asked by ordinary schmoes to show their work.
But not by senators, thankfully.
All this cryptic effort to document and prove beyond reasonable doubt that some now unfavored ME family dictatorship used weapons of mass destruction against its own people! Sounds somehow familiar.
As for our future Imperial Wars of Choice, it seems to me the vaunted intelligence community has shit the bed and doesn’t have the sense to know it needs to get to the goddam laundry (Kerry: “now some people here and there, amazingly, have questioned the evidence[!] of this assault on conscience [Jeebus what a lame phrase]…the most willful desire to avoid reality”). Yes, indeedy. This was not a surprise. If it makes our Wars, oops, Interventions of Sad Duty more difficult, so much the better. If this is such an obviously proven breach of a long established international standard that it demands military response, it doesn’t need to fall solely into the lap of the hamhanded sole “superpower”. Get thee to the UN and let the whole world vote on the matter.
Finally, notice that our new sad obligation for Syrian intervention against Team Assad seems to have arisen pretty quickly after the decision to arm some regime opponents. Funny how that happened, it’s almost what many DFHs predicted would happen!
To the question of why Assad would use chemical weapons, the following was offered on last night’s Last Word with Lawrence O’Donnell
http://www.nbcnews.com/id/45755883/ns/msnbc-the_last_word/vp/52917504
I saw that too, and frankly thought it was BS.
I find points 3 and 4 in this post at the Atlantic to be much more convincing: http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2013/09/your-labor-day-syria-reader-part-2-william-
polk/279255/
For example I don’t agree that Kerry pretended that the “U.S. didn’t help Saddam Hussein target his poison gas during the Iraq-Iran War.” To me what he said yesterday was alluding to the fact that we did just that without coming out and condemning “St. Ronnie,” something that surely would have caused the Republicans in the room to dang near riot.
As for showing the evidence we know that there was some evidence presented in the closed door briefings on Sunday. The issue seems to be that you expect to see everything, no matter how sensitive the intelligence. That simply is not realistic.
I realize a lot of people were burned by Bush’s lies in 2003 (I was not one of them) but it seems to me many are reliving that issue and being duped over it instead of honestly engaging in debate over this issue.
How about one piece of publicly available evidence that directly implicates the regime? I’d be happy to see it.
And how do you know (1) that the evidence presented was legitimately classified as secret; (2) that the evidence presented was specific enough for Congress to make an independent judgement of the administration’s claims; (3) that the evidence definitively implicated the the Assad regime and Assad himself in the chemical weapons attack?
Democracy depends on informed citizens to make judgements; secrecy withholds the information citizens require to make those judgements. Consequently there is public opposition to this proposed action because the public has been whipped by fear, uncertainty, and doubt too much as forms of political manipulation.
It’s not that they no longer trust the President. It’s that they no longer trust secret information that they cannot see.
War should be difficult to shove on a democracy. Because war allows the government to claim extraordinary powers that over time become ordinary and corrosive of democracy.
That Congress will see in closed door briefings? If so there will be nothing that convinces you because that will never happen nor should it. Like it or not there is some intelligence that needs to be classified.
Also like it or not the choice to give authorization is not something that the American citizenry will make. It is something that the congress will make. The judgment citizens made was when they elected their representatives and Senators. Don’t like the choice they make here? Work to elect a different representative but expecting to get the same evidence congress will see is simply not going to happen. Not because the administration is trying to pull one over but rather because, as I said, some intelligence is classified and rightfully so.
But that’s not the sort of intelligence that is at issue here. What is at issue is a matter of historical fact.
I haven’t been following the debates that closely, but it doesn’t seem like we’re hearing much about another important question, which is what shooting missiles at Syria is supposed to accomplish. A lot of people seem to be operating under the assumption that if Assad used chemical weapons than we automatically have to shoot missiles at Syria, but what happens then? The only thing we can really be sure of is that more people will be dead.
With that sort of attitude you ain’t never gonna be a senator, SS…
.
WTF who is Kerry emulating here? .. [speech Eisenhower origin “domino theory“]
Kerry combined the axis of evil to the use of neurotoxins in Damascus, tying in Iran which has been brutalized by Saddam’s regime and suffered prolonged sarin and mustard gas attacks. “It sends a message not just to Syria, but to Iran, North Korea and terrorist groups.”
As far as I can see, Obama and Kerry have been packaged and gift-wrapped by PM Netanyahu on Syrian war framing. Israeli intelligence, diplomacy and war rhetoric.
.
Flaws in Obama’s personality becoming a risk: narcissist, self-confident, arrogant; believes he can do no wrong on a decision. This positive trait can however lead to grandeur when nurtured as a cult person. The above are first indications of living 5 years under the glass dome of Washington DC where the president loses touch with reality in the outside world. His campaign promise to engage in dialogue has been lost in a rush to war. Obama loses perception of risks and what will be step 2, 3 and 4 in the aftermath. Not getting the right judgement of his advisors Kerry and Ms Rice will lead to a wrong decision on Syria. The strength of Al Nusra Front and the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS) are underestimated.
Putin Says Kerry Lied About Al Qaeda Role in Syria
And the tell was Sen. McCain spending his time in the hearing playing iPhone poker (and going bust). Fortunately, Andrea Mitchell tweeted out an excuse note like she was Lil Johnny’s Mom (“can you blame him”), so it’s all good.
For those of us who aren’t blood-gargling psychopaths but actual members of the human community, the prospect of blowing thousands of people to smithereens is a slightly more (ahem) sober (ahem, ahem) undertaking.
Per Spencer Ackerman:
It’s looking like Saudi extortion here.
Only in a completely braindead city of lunatics could this be seen as a compelling argument. Simply unbelievable. Of course we’d have no leverage over the Saudi monarchy…wouldn’t be seemly.
The US army seems to have become a army of mercenaries that can be rented.
Kerry: Arab countries offered to pay for invasion
Yes.
A risible and inept performance by an equally risible and inept (
tomato can) (fix co-conspirator) presidential candidate. He’s a good PermaDem though, so the head PermaDem appointed him Secretary ofWhitewash…ahhhh…Rubberstamp…err, ahhhh…State.Get real.
If he was told to moon the Senate at high noon and swear that it’s just a little wardrobe malfunction, he’d make a sloppy salute and comply.
What’d you expect?
Ed Snowden?
Kerry’s just a sockpuppet.
Bet on it.
You voted for Obama and you have continued to support him disregarding any and all evidence to the contrary.
Deal wid it.
The blood is going to be on your hands too.
Bet on that as well.
AG