It looks increasingly like the House Republicans are on a suicide mission. It’s like they are hell-bent on making an amphibious landing on some beachhead against entrenched machine gun nests and heavy artillery fire without the benefit of any air cover. They are going to get cut to ribbons.
Speaker Boehner admits that he cannot come up with a plan to finance the government and pay its debts that wont be shot down by friendly-fire from his own caucus. That means that he will need to either consent to a government shutdown or go hat-in-hand to Nancy Pelosi and Steny Hoyer and ask for their support in avoiding a catastrophe. But he doesn’t seem to want to do that preemptively, so he is still floundering around trying to appease his own Teahadist base.
A lot of people say that he will lose his speakership if he goes to the Democrats, but I don’t know that he would lose it immediately. If the Democrats wanted to, they could preserve Boehner’s speakership by voting for him if he is challenged by a substantial rump of the Republican caucus. I am unaware of an example of a Speaker being voted out of his position in the middle of a session of Congress, or even what the rules are for such a challenge. I know that Gingrich resigned, but I don’t know what would have happened if he had tried to stay on a fight for his gavel. I do know that the Speaker is elected by a vote of the entire House, and if the Democrats agreed to vote for Boehner, he couldn’t be ousted unless nearly the entire Republican caucus voted against him.
It seems like the House GOP is about to crack up on the shoals without even making a beach-landing.
I do know that the Speaker is elected by a vote of the entire House, and if the Democrats agreed to vote for Boehner, he couldn’t be ousted unless nearly the entire Republican caucus voted against him.
Why would Pelosi and Co. do that unless she was basically allowed to run the House? I don’t know that there is much alternative but to let Orange Julius continue to twist in the wind.
Well, let’s look at the strategy on a challenge from the House Republicans to their speaker.
To be successfully elected Speaker, I think you need a majority, not a simple plurality of the vote. That means that so long as no Republicans vote for a Democrat, the Democrats cannot win the gavel.
So, let’s have a hypothetical where Rep. John Culberson challenges Boehner.
If all the Democrats vote for Pelosi and all the Republicans split between Boehner and Culberson, there would be a second vote between just Pelosi and the Republican with the most votes. Assuming Boehner came in third place, Culberson would win a majority on the second vote and become Speaker with a mandate to not compromise on anything.
The Democrats would rather not see that happen, and they could prevent it by simply voting for Boehner. He would then have a mandate to cut deals with the Democrats.
On the other hand, Boehner might just resign rather than go that route.
So, let’s have a hypothetical where Rep. John Culberson challenges Boehner.
If all the Democrats vote for Pelosi and all the Republicans split between Boehner and Culberson, there would be a second vote between just Pelosi and the Republican with the most votes. Assuming Boehner came in third place, Culberson would win a majority on the second vote and become Speaker with a mandate to not compromise on anything.
Why would there be a second vote, if the GOP split between Orange Julius and Culbertson? Wouldn’t Pelosi become Speaker because she got the most votes? And why would Cantor want/take the top job? Do you think he wants the headaches? Look at now. It’s Orange Julius taking all the slings and arrows.
There’d be a second vote because House rules require a majority to elect a speaker.
(Btw, Willie Brown pulled off a variation of this in the California assembly or senate when Republicans retook control by a narrow margin and he cut a deal with a handful of moderate Republicans.)
Reading comprehension fail on a massive level.
So spoilers don’t have as easy a time as they do in regular elections(some would say ’00)?
Could Pelosi instead push an alternative Republican who is neither an inveterate loser like Boehner nor crazy? A pork-loving good old boy like Hal Rogers?
I’ve posted some relevant snark at my place, everybody’s invited.
Is it bad that I don’t trust Boehner or any Republican for that matter to honor anytime of arrangement.
So the fact that his campaign is being investigated for campaign finance infractions won’t effect anything?
Great writing, by the way.
Boehner couldn’t herd dead cats with instructions. The GOP House Caucus is far outside the control of its leadership that it doesn’t matter what John Boehner wants.
Depends whether the instructions were given to Boehner or the cats.
Last night on O’Donnell’s show he had Ezra Klein on with Steve Schmidt discussing this very thing. The former said that in his view it would be far less dangerous for the country to have a government shut down NOW. Not reaching a compromise to keep government funded might forestall the House’s refusal to raise the debt limit in a few weeks. Far better, he said, to take the hit now, rather than with the debt ceiling.
Now, exactly,how this actually prevents the far more dangerous event of not raising the debt limit for everyone, including the world, I’m not sure. However, I can see that if the House membership takes the heat from putting all those soldiers and employees in the defense establishment out to pasture with no pay, it might somehow force them to exercise some sanity and raise the debt ceiling.
I do have some sympathy for Boehner, even if I have no personal knowledge of his leadership abilities. Anyone who’s seen some outtakes from the recent GOP Town Halls has gotta know that the base of the party has gone bonkers. And, there are very few really courageous Congressional representatives out there like the 2 Colorado State Senators who were just ousted, thanks to the NRA. The GOP is truly a wholly owned subsidiary of its tea party and special interest base. About the only group that seems to have lost favor within its ranks are the neocons. And even they get their face time on Fox to pound Obama on Syria.
I guess the theory is the combination of 1) throwing a temper tantrum (government shutdown), and 2) getting punished for it (strong voter/constituent disapproval, declining poll #s for Reps) would forestall another temper tantrum (not raising the debt ceiling) a couple of weeks later.
This is not a temper tantrum….the teabaggers are determined to die on this hill they have built. The speaker is going to let them shut down the government. The Dems/Obama are going to have to hang in there for about 3 maybe 4 weeks before the speaker caves.
You may be right! The question is: if they shut down the government, and if they lose big in doing so, will they still refuse to raise the debt ceiling?
I don’t think the Speaker would allow a month-long shutdown. The national Chamber of Commerce and other business leaders would lose their shit. Many business owners would like a shutdown of government regulations, fees and taxes, but those same businessmen don’t want a shutdown of the many, many government services and $$$ subsidies that they want and need.
The thing that helps us out here is that the Tea Party caucus doesn’t have the leaders who can game-theory this out to help them calculate the best ways to achieve their goals. That’s why they and their supporters are setting tons of money on fire with their media campaign to “Defund Obamacare”. I’m getting sick of seeing Senators Lee and Cruz on my teevee, I’ll tell you that. It’s hard to imagine that the general public is taking to these charisma-free trolls, either.
I don’t feel sorry for Boehner. The GOP made this problem.
They have caused their members to think the ACA is the very devil itself. Now they can’t put the Jennie back in the bottle.
When you paint yourself into a corner, you can’t get out until the paint dries. The paint dries when the public starts filling out their Obamacare forms.
The realistic thing to do is repeal the debt limit law entirely. But that is not pragmatic for either the Republicans or the Democrats. It is key to posturing.
I hope you’re right about the Obamacare forms, but I’m a state South and a bit west of yours, and our Insurance Commissioner refuses to allow information on the state website about the health exchanges. Just the other day a professor at the local university medical school had a long Op-ED about the evils of Obamacare, although to keep his credibility he tries not to be so obviously partisan.
So we in these really red states need a big PR push by the Obama Administration and even, ideally, a non-political entity, to start really educating folks about the good in this law. Seriously.
Kentucky will have obamacare in full, and maybe TN too, so I’m hoping word of that might spread south. But yeah, these big red states are temporarily screwed.
I do think enough people will find their way into the exchanges to make a difference, though. Problem is any improvement in your local economies will be wrongly attributed to “blocking” obamacare.
Most folks will have practical experience with the system by next summer to know what the results are. All the efforts to sabotage the rollout have either allowed more states to be on the federal exchange or to be compared unfavorably to the states who have acted in good faith.
And the low-wage industries that have been shedding people into the individual pool will make single-payer much more sensible by 2020. Health insurance will not longer the the cash cow it used to be, and the industry will not fight as hard to have the federal government pick up their claims costs.
The big surprise will be when providers are no longer having to support the costs of massive unpaid bills and start lowering their prices and fees. And if they don’t, the pressure for regulation will increase. Because analysts will expect it, and if it doesn’t it will be national news.
Didn’t the Dems already repeal it once under Gephardt? And Reps reinstate it when they retook the House?
The idea of Dems controlling Boehner and thereby the House votes on legislation is intriguing. It’s seemed to me many times that Boehner would like to compromise, would like to work with President Obama. He has come to agreements that the House wouldn’t support.
if he doesn’t want to go down in history as the worst speaker ever he might allow the Democrats to support him in staying speaker and then work with them to get legislation through. That would only work if there are sane GOP reps left to make up the difference. I think there are, but the pressure on them would be immense. I suspect recall elections would be threatened and even if this was used on Dems they could hold their power in the CO recall over GOP heads.
I would love to see a clean debt ceiling bill and the end of the sequester and if it meant Boehner would stay Speaker with Dem help that would be fine with me. I’d love for this to manifest.
Hoyer vows to oppose spending bills that include sequester cuts
Read more: http://thehill.com/blogs/on-the-money/budget/321423-hoyer-vows-to-oppose-spending-bills-that-include
-sequester-cuts#ixzz2enZdn8Z5
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http://thehill.com/blogs/on-the-money/budget/321423-hoyer-vows-to-oppose-spending-bills-that-include
-sequester-cuts
What I meant was that even though the CO recall was used on Dems, the GOP could hold that power over other GOP reps to keep them in line.
there is no mechanism to recall federal representatives, only a vote in their individual house of Congress can oust them
What about arresting them for treason?? (snark ((just a bit)) )
they would technically still be a Congressperson until their house ousted them, as far as I know
Jim, I’d forgotten that! Thanks for pointing that out. I remember now that it takes action by the House to oust them.
Then it would be the threat to primary them or not fund them in 2014 or whatever the hell they hold over them to make them kiss Grover Norquist’s butt.
speaking of ousting. I just did a Google search and came up with this
How to Oust a Congressman – Part 1
http://www.occupy.com/article/how-oust-congressman-step-one
How to Oust a Congressman – Part 2
http://www.nationofchange.org/how-oust-congressman-pt-2-1353572425
Why? It’s entirely probable that the White House and the Dems, as usual, will manage to salvage a defeat from victory once again, and the GOP will suffer not one whit from their tactics.
This country has decided on a deep, deep level that it truly is Always OK If You’re A Republican.
We on the lefty blogosphere laugh and point at them for being buffoons, and they laugh and point that the buffoons are running the show, and winning, consistently.
Take, for example, the Sequester, that briar patch that the GOP begged, BEGGED Obama not to obligingly throw them into.
So they get to slash government spending, screw the poor, piss on the rest of us and then blame Obama for it and we go right along. tsk tsking at them.
They love to wail about the ‘Chicago politics’ they claim Obama loves, but politically we DO have to start putting theirs in the morgue.
And we can start by actually getting our side out to fucking vote when it fucking matters, like in Colorado.
They WON after our side vastly outspent theirs. The NRA removed politicians from office in the state where a goddamn lunatic shot the hell out of a movie theatre.
So who the fuck is it that’s on a goddamn suicide mission, huh?!!
Do you understand why people vote?
Do you?
People vote:
Off-Off-Off year elections, like recall elections in September, or bond issue elections in May have deeply dismal participation rates, I’ve seen elections like that in my county (that May bond issue ones) with <20% participation rates that affect everyone, because it was to fund a comprehensive transportation plan.
In Colorado even through these were strongly Democratic districts, there were a whole bunch of people on the NRA side fired up for reason #2. Even so the R’s got only half the number of votes they got in the presidential race in that district.
The D’s failed to get their base out. This is crucial in wining elections in any year, and enormously important in elections like this.
From Ed Kilgore at Political Animal:
We have arrived, friends and neighbors, at a big-time teachable moment for the Republican Party, if only the White House and congressional Democrats will recognize it. They need to slowly and clearly, using hand puppets if necessary, make it clear that the pleasure of getting to deal with John Boehner is not so great that they are willing to “compromise” between sanity and insanity on the fiscal front to help him out of his jam. Boehner’s effort to distract his troops from hostage-taking on appropriations to hostage-taking on the debt limit–a vastly more dangerous gambit–should have been the final sign that he’s no better than the “wacko birds” who have mainly become a hobgoblin he can use to scare Democrats into concessions. “Help me,” he cries. “Give me spending cuts or they’ll shut down the government. Give me an Obamacare delay or they’ll destroy the economy!” No more, please. Democrats have the leverage of controlling the White House and the Senate, and won’t gain any more leverage via a phony partnership with John Boehner that just puts off the day when conservatives come to grips with the fact that losing two consecutive presidential elections means they don’t get to call the shots.
If Boehner’s not willing to risk his position by truly standing up against the destructive habits of his conference, then don’t throw him a life preserver as he flounders; throw him an anvil. The sooner his double game comes to an end, the sooner we can have either serious fiscal negotiations or a real fight that makes everyone’s true position clear.
the Dems need to sit on the sidelines and file their nails. .
no help for Orange Julius