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A UN Security Council resolution will be made to support the agreement and much of the responsibility will be referred to the OPCW. Inspectors should be on the ground by November 1 and the CW stockpiles should be destroyed by mid-2014. Any further undermining of this agreement or any use of neurotoxin agents in the civil war will be dealt with by the Security Council under Chapter 7 – military force.
BREAKING NEWS: US, Russia agree Syria chem weapons deal
(RT) – Assad’s government must submit a comprehensive list of its chemical weapons stocks within a week ahead of their transfer and destruction, US Secretary John Kerry said at a joint press conference with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov.
The deal worked out between Moscow and Washington on settling the Syria crisis stipulates that Syria’s chemical weapons will be rapidly destroyed.
Updates and analysis in my new diary – Chemical Weapons and Moral Hypocrisy.
PS Secretary Kerry stated his “off the cuff” remark in London was on purpose. He had conferred twice by phone with Sergey Lavrov in the days ahead of his meeting with Hague. He expressed the hope the idea would be picked up by the international community. Within an hour he got the first response from Lavrov we took the proposition to President Putin. Across the Atlantic, President Obama responded in a positive manner.
UN Report Monday on CW In Ghouta Attack
More below the fold …
The foreign ministers of the allied nations France, United Kingdom and the United States will meet for a top level meeting in Paris on Monday. By chance, or not quite certain what the UN Report will disclose …
UN Report to be presented to UNSG Ban Ki-moon this weekend
(RT) – Earlier Friday, the head of the UN chemical weapons inspection team, Ake Sellstrom, said that the UN report on the alleged use of chemical weapons on August 21 in Syria was complete and would be delivered to UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon over the weekend, AP reported.
The US is confident that the results of the report will “reaffirm that chemical weapons were used in Syria” without assigning blame on any of the conflicting sides in the Syrian civil war, State Department spokeswoman Marie Harf said Friday.
The foreign ministers of France, Britain and the US are to meet for talks over lunch in Paris on Monday to discuss the Syrian crisis, France’s Foreign Ministry said.
Russia, US and UN: Geneva peace talks only way to stop Syria violence
Russia, the US and the UN have agreed that the only solution to the ongoing Syrian crisis lies within the framework of the “Geneva-2” peace talks, Russia’s Foreign Ministry said in a statement.
After their meeting in Geneva on Friday, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, US State Secretary John Kerry and UN and Arab League Special Envoy to Syria Lakhdar Brahimi “reaffirmed their commitment to an early launch of Syrian dialogue in Geneva between representatives of the Syrian government and main opposition groups,” Russia’s Foreign Ministry said.
The meeting between Lavrov, Kerry and Brahimi in Switzerland was focused on “practical issues” to prepare the way for an international peace conference over Syria.
The three diplomats agreed that “a political settlement is the only possible way to an early end to violence in Syria and to overcome acute humanitarian consequences of the Syrian conflict,” the Russian Foreign ministry said. This settlement should be “based on the implementation of all provisions of the Geneva communiqué of June 30, 2012,” the statement said.
The representatives of Russia, US and UN decided to meet for trilateral talks at the next regular session of the UN General Assembly in New York on Sept. 17.
- Read my diary about the Syrian crisis –
○ Across the Globe, Praise for Putin ‖ Op-ed
○ It Stinks A Mile In the Wind
○ President Obama Nixes Close Foreign Policy Advisors
PS. Quite a change from the war rhetoric of John Kerry as a US bombing raid was expected on Thursday August 29. Many events unfolded in a manner that defies rationale but got PBO to step away from the brink of another war on a Muslim nation in the Middle-East.
This came very close to being a massive clusterf*ck. Good to read that something far worse was averted. Quickly perused your diary at Eurotrib. Some good points there. One of these days I am going to have to finally set up an account there.
Most interesting State Dept. walkback:
While the US media (including blogs) waits with baited breath to see that UN report charging the Assad regime had used chemical weapons. Wonder if the report will even definitely identify what chemicals were found.
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Admission by Kerry, it is possible rebels possess CW. Fair is fair, also in the by rebels controlled areas if there are chemical weapons present, the US will push for access!
Oops –
An admission of outside control of anti-Assad opposition forces?
There’s this from Reuters.
(Wonder what Saadeddine’s weapons stores look like.)
But also this:
Maybe Idris could move his ass from Istanbul and see the war from the ground.
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SG Ban Ki-moon did NOT refer to the UN Inspection report or did he leak ANY substantial information ahead of time! Ban Ki-moon did say there was overwhelming evidence of chemical warfare. The SG did not point fingers and it’s not the inspectors to put blame on a side. The scientific evidence may be sufficient to reach a conclusion. The UNSG got the report probably on Saturday and it will be published on Monday.
As all of you know, another UN Commission is investigating serious war crimes and will document these for a future referral to the ICC where at all possible. Ban Ki-moon spoke about those conclusions – U.N. Rights Panel Cites Evidence of War Crimes by Both Sides in Syria. The allied nations UK, France and the US will have a summit in Paris on Monday. Secretary Kerry will meet PM Netanyahu on Sunday in Jerusalem. The US have communicated with Iran and newly elected President Rouhani via the Swiss consulate.
Updates and analysis in my new diary @EuroTrib – Chemical Weapons and Moral Hypocrisy.
○ JPost Op-Ed: Ditch the Analogies
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UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon send a tweet about Syria and the OPCW …
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The daily comments to articles in the Jerusalem Post are filled with disdain for America and outright hate or anti-Americanism. Often articles and opinion pieces are authored by Jews living in the US. PM Netanyahu has kept silent on the repositioning of US policy on Syria. Today John Kerry will visit Jerusalem, let the fireworks begin. Links added in article are mine – Oui.
○ Douglas Bloomfield on Iran and new president Rouhani – The Times, Are They A Changin’?.
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The piece by Marcy Wheeler could have been written by McCain/Graham based on mistrust of the political effort and agreement put in place by the CWC teams of John Kerry and Sergey Lavrov. Both President Putin and Obama have committed themselves to the deal. The inspection regime and the destruction of the CW arms and facilities will be performed by the OPCW. I suggest everyone take note of the press conference, it provides clarity. As the Russian newspapers wrote headlines: Chemistry between Kerry and Lavrov. But the good understanding has been there all along. Diplomacy is on the front burner in the White House.
As I have written, a political solution on Syria will be put on the table and agreed upon by Russia and the US within a 90 day period. A backchannel is opened with President Rouhani of Iran for talks on the nuclear issue with the US. The “humanitarian hawks” in the Obama administration have taken a back-seat to diplomacy and the effort of Secretary Kerry.
Marcy Wheeler doesn’t get it.
○ The World after the Kerry-Lavrov accord on Syria by Juan Cole
○ Kerry after briefing PM on Syria accord: Diplomacy preferred solution, but ‘no option off the table’ Jerusalem visit
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I too love Marcy Wheeler’s great investigative work!
My main argument is, emptywheel based her analysis on distrust of the deal with the Russians and the inability for the OPCW to do its task. In the press conference of Kerry and Putin, this point had been adressed and answered. Syria has ratified the CWC treaty and as such has committed itself to the process of CW disarmament. A UN Security Council resolution will be agreed upon in the coming days, supported by Russia and the US. To write this analysis, you don’t believe a word that was said nor value the agreement signed. This is very similar to words and statements by McCain amd Graham. It’s their lifeline.
The following statements by emptywheel are just not true …
○ US Negotiating Position in Lavrov-Kerry Deal Depends on Expansive Commander-in-Chief Claims
○ just agreed to does allow the US to demand a UN resolution backing use of force in case Assad does balk
○ US does expect Russia would still veto such a resolution
○ because we exercise little leverage over them [rebels] , we may not be able to prevent them from scuttling the disarmament process
Her last paragraph is basically wrong:
“In any case, I’m pretty sure I know what the Russians — who, after all, won this round — intend: that’s to protect Assad’s hold on power, via whatever means. And frankly, that’s what we are — explicitly, at least — seeking as well, even while we continue to arm rebels trying to overthrow him.”
Step 2 of this process will be vigorous talks between Russia and the US to iron out a political solution to the conflict. Just as in step 1, there will be a minimum of consultation with partners, the FSA and the Assad crowd. I’m certain there is already a basic agreement on the outline of these talks – Geneva 2. Assad and his henchmen will not be part of a future regime in Syria. If you read between the lines, Putin and Russia already implied such a year ago. If the UN Inspectors point to Assad for the Ghouta gas attack, Assad is definitely out. The meeting between Kerry and Lavrov proceeded in good faith, Obama wil support a diplomatic solution. This is completely new for Obama, a reversal of his decision to attack the Assad regime a fortnight ago.
See my earlier post – US Confusion Setting Policy On Syria, other progressives tell the tale PBO knew all along what he was doing setting policy on Syria, a masterful coup to play out diplomacy.
“For the neo-cons, our Syria policy was rather explicitly about preventing Russia (and also Iran) from having any influence in Syria. The same can be said for our Sunni allies in the region. The same can be said for Israel. The president doesn’t think that and never has thought that.”
This writer in Israel gets it!
Analysis || U.S.- Russia agreement on Syrian chemical weapons, is, theoretically, a godsend for Israel by Chemi Shalev
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FM Laurent Fabius, FM William Hague and Secretary Kerry explain the agreements in Geneva on CW in Syria. This confirms for 100% my assessment of the process from Geneva to the next step, working towards a political solution of the civil/sectarian war. On the first question, how Kerry will provide protection for the Christian minority in Syria as in Iraq the consequences were dire and most Christians have fled the country. Will there be an option similar to the 1975 proposal on Lebanon, an opportunity for transfer of minorities to Canada. Kerry answer in short, he doesn’t agree the persecution of Christians in Iraq was a consequnce of US/UK invasion and occupation. Conclusion: the allies have yet no idea how to protect minorities once the Assad regime is overthrown. All three speak in strong terms of the moderate opposition, IMHO that is non-existent as we have witnessed the last 30 months.
The Chapter 7 sanction has already been incorporated in the Geneva agreement between the US and Russia.
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For me there were no surprises at the press conference in Paris. All the harsh statements by Fabius, Hague and Kerry were to safe face after being outmaneuvered by Putin last week. Kerry tried his best to present the three as a strong coalition having identical goals. I found nothing disturbing in their statements, as all three had to backtrack from earlier war rhetoric and having their credibility undermined.
It doesn’t seem Russian FM Lavrov appreciated the hard talk by the three and gave a rebuttal from Moscow.
○ UN Commission of Inquiry on Syria probing 14 cases of alleged chemical weapon attacks
○ Ban Ki-moon will present UN Inspection Report to Security Council members at 15:15GMT today
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Attack was on a massive scale with multiple surface-to-surface artillery rockets with characteristics of type BM-14. Relative positions of two impact sites are fully congruent with the dispersion pattern with rockets launched from a single, multi barrel launcher. Amount of sarin gas used in attack estimated at 360 liters. Experts will need to investigate which party is to blame, it’s a war crime and the UN Security Council will be asked to bring justice to the perpetrator. CNN had shown in a documentary the OPCW research lab in The Hague, location remains secret. Nearly all experts on the ground in Syria were from the OPCW, from other countries than the five permanent members of the Security Council. Even Iran has an official OPCW-designated Laboratory.
○ Earlier experts were wrong about payload volume of sarin gas – Rockets in Syrian Attack Carried Large Payload of Gas
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Indiscriminate bombing of cities or the use of chemical agents. Not all war crimes are equal! Was the Treaty of 1925 based on the use during war or because Churchill had adopted chemical agents on cities to suppress uprisings in Mesopotomia? When was the term “teargas” coined, need restraint on the deadly mixture as used in Bahrain and Turkey today! Made in Israel btw.
WWI 1914-1917
Churchill Iraq 1920
WWII Nuremburg Trials
Rotterdam-London-Coventry bombing, but Dresden?
Israel 1948 – BW typhoid
Hanoi 1972 – carpet bombing / agent orange
South Africa 1980s – Project Coast
Iraq-Iran War 1980s
Halabja 1988
Japan – sarin
US – anthrax
Fallujah 2004
Damascus 2013
Cross-posted from a brief discussion @EuroTrib
Always good to be reminded of the history.
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From the UN Report
Information about munitions:
23. Information gathered about the delivery systems used was essential for the investigation. Indeed, several surface to surface rockets capable of delivering significant chemical payloads were identified and recorded at the investigated sites. These were carefully measured, photographed and sampled. Samples later confirmed to contain Sarin werr recovered from a majority of the rockets or rocket fragments. For more detailed information and assessments see Appendix 5.
Environmental samples collected in Zamalka / Ein Tarma on 28 August 2013
Between 14:14 and 14:38 a number of samples were taken from the rockets and fragments.
Limitations:
The time necesary to conduct a detailed survey of both locations as well as take samples was very limited. The sites have been well travelled by other individuals both before and during the investigation. Fragments and other possible evidence have clearly been handled/moved prior to the arrival of the invetigation team.
Limitations:
As with other sites, the locations have been well travelled by other individuals prior to the arrival of the Mission. Time spent on the sites was well used but limited. During the time spent at these locations, individuals arrived carrying other suspected munitions indicating that such potential evidence is being moved and possibly manipulated.
○ Mapping the Sarin Flight Path from UN report
The HRW report also mentions the use of artillery shells Soviet era BM-14 launchers for 140mm rockets. These have been around a very long time and used extensively in the Algerian civil war, Egypt and Sudan (etc.). IMO these 140mm rockets could be launched from homemade artillery. There are videos of rebel forces launching this diameter rocket, see one here.
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○ Huff Post: Syria Declares Inventory In Initial OPCW Submission
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Chemical agents containing traces of sarin: DIMP, IMPA, and MPA. Some info in the role of photochemical and microbiological transformation processes in determining the environmental fates of diisopropyl methylphosphonate (DIMP) and dicyclopentadiene (DCPD) was investigated in 1979.
See my recent diary @EuroTrib – Chemical Weapons and Moral Hypocrisy.
Link to Fort Detrick report:
U.S. Army Medical Research and Development Command at Fort Detrick, Maryland (1979)
STUDIES OF ENVIRONMENTAL FATES OF DIMP AND DCPD (pdf)
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The aggressive rhetoric of FM Laurent Fabius and British FM William Hague has been muted by the reality of the Kerry/Lavrov agreement reached in Geneva.
See my earlier post – A Clean Break with Israel and KSA.
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Of course, all Obama loyalists call it a masterpiece of 11th Dimensional Chess, he can do no wrong. What a bs. Remember, France and the US were just hours away from a devastating military strike on Syria that would have destroyed any Obama “legacy.”
It’s not 11th Dimensional Chess, just a lucky hand at poker when Secretary Kerry set up a one-two rebuttal with his Russian colleague Lavrov and secured the CW removal option in Syria. Left AIPAC look like fools and empty handed, so did the hawks in the White House, Capitol Hill and Jerusalem. Not even speaking of Ankara, Abu Dhabi and Riyadh.
Here is how the blog community reacts on poor brinkmanship from the Oval Office:
○ It’s At Least 11-Dimensional Chess BooMan on Sept. 25, 2009
○ Russia’s chess game trumps Obama’s checkers (with video) Sept.11, 2013
○ Obama Wins 11th Dimensional Chess Match: Agreement with Russia to Remove Syrian Chemical Weapons Daily Kos on Sept.14, 2013
My earlier comment – Regime Change for Syria Was Never A Secret.