Jonathan Chait has the right idea, but he is making it needlessly complicated. Defecting Republican lawmakers don’t need to actually leave the party. They don’t need to rebrand themselves as independents. They don’t need the business lobby to come in to finance some massive new political project.
First, let’s look at what they are likely to do regardless of any grand scheme. They are likely to defect from the Republican party line and agree to reopen the government and lift the debt ceiling without winning anything tangible in return. They will either do this with Boehner’s open or tacit permission, or they will join a Democratic discharge petition to get it done over the Speaker’s sincere objections.
Once this group takes these courageous actions, they will have effectively cleaved the Republican Party in two. It will matter a lot whether Boehner is with them or against them, but, either way, they will be the objects of conservative ire the likes of which we can hardly imagine.
Still, hailing mainly from New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Illinois, and California, they will stand a better chance of reelection as Republicans than they would as independents. And their only chance of maintaining their power in this Congress would be if they joined with the Democrats to elect a moderate Republican speaker. It could be Boehner, or it could be someone from their own rump caucus.
If something like this were to happen, it probably would not be too long before the GOP went the way of the Whigs, with northern/suburban and southern/rural factions citing irreconcilable differences. But that could take a decade or more to shake out.
The key here is that this fissure is opening up right now in front of our eyes, and there is plenty of potential for it to not end well. If the moderate Republicans are stupid, or the Democrats aren’t smart, the result could be a right-wing coup instead of a moderate coup. And, in that case, there will be no end to our problems.
And Ted Cruz-ader is preening and strutting, preparing to lead that right-wing coup.
When the Right-Wing, Coup fails, Ted Cruz will return obscurity. If Republicans hate Obamacare, than win a Presidential Election.
One reason I love this website is, it usually offers a more-optimistic take on what’s happening than is my first understanding. But this is the most worrisome thing I’ve heard in a while: “If the moderate Republicans are stupid …”
Or the democrats are stupid. Asking for 2/2 is apparently too much to assume.
I can’t guarantee that there are no stupid Democrats, but the Democratic leaders are not stupid, and they are running a tight ship right now.
I certainly appreciate your keeping track and opining on these various Repub stories and schemes.
But one Repub story is that the shutdown was forced on a defenseless group of 180 sane Repubs, in thrall to party “unity” or the supposed certain death of a tea-turd primary (or something), while this break-away strategy is premised on just 20 or so sane non-Confederate Repubs bucking the Drunken Boner and his minions. They can’t both be the case.
And if Boner gave any kind of “permission”, he’d be done for, too, absent a stunning House re-alignment, which as far as I know would be unprecedented in modern times.
Nevertheless, this break away story sounds more plausible than the Helpless Repub 180. Hard to see that any Repub would have the political courage and will power to undertake it, though. The “conservative” hammers would already be coming down on them. But perhaps there are a few Purplish districts where the Repub squatter fears the “independents” more than the TeaTurd mouth breathers?
All very interesting but I am not taking my eyes off the ball: CHAINED CPI. Everything else – even the debt ceiling – is a shiny object in comparison. A 3-year depression would be a shiny object in comparison to the steady and inevitable destruction of social security. If you don’t believe me, try getting a little older and you will.
If the Chait/Booman scenario plays out, I fear the chances of Obama passing chained CPI improve.
The least bad outcome I can currently imagine would seem to be serious, extended mayhem that requires some truly drastic solution that doesn’t involve a bargain – 14th Amendment, whatever … something massive and controversial that doesn’t include gutting soc. sec. and medicare, that further polarizes the right, that forces Obama to the left … and that will result in a massive 2014 anti-GOP wave.
Exactly. It’s what Obama wanted before, and tried to get last time with his debt ceiling shenanigans. Looks like it’s time for Round 2:
http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/360234/boehner-gop-grand-bargain-works-robert-costa
I’m still with Robert Greenstein.
fast forward to now
4. We must enact a Grand Bargain to stop the bleeding of the sequester that has only even been implemented because of the president’s insistence to negotiate on the debt ceiling in the first place
Seems like he’s developed a “heads I win, tails you lose” strategy, except we got to endure painful sequester cuts without anything to show for it. Nice.
Problem with your theory is that you assume we get nothing out of it. Obama has faced that offer for three years now and he hasn’t taken it yet.
Republicans* haven’t taken it yet. He’s been perfectly willing, so long as he gets his chump-change in revenue to wave at the DFH’s.
You’ve argued they wouldn’t take it, but if they would it’s not the end of the world because CPI is the least harmful thing.
We’ll see if they take it. I hope they don’t.
My opinion is the Boehner is not afraid of losing his speakership in this Congress, where 50 or so Teatards will have a hard time forcing a speaker replacement, but the in the next Congress where even 30 will probably mean he has no chance to become speaker. Boehner’s current maneuvers are so that they won’t be implacably opposed to him when the caucus convenes in 2015.
Boehner’s interests are pretty similar to any other “sane” Republicans. He wants the CR passed and the debt limit raised, so the general public won’t turn against Republicans, but he wants other Republicans to cast the necessary votes so they get the heat from the Tea Party. He has the additional issue of convincing some true nuts in the House caucus that he’s genuinely on their side. He probably wants 20 Republicans to crack and support a floor amendment to replace one of his funding bills with the Senate CR resolution and then pass it. He’ll cry crocodile tears to the Tea Party nuts the whole time, whip as hard as he can against; but that’s what he wants. He probably figures he’ll get it before the debt limit gets breached and he’s probably right.
Sure, some cancer patients will die, hundreds of thousands of vacations will be ruined and literally millions will go hungry. But they’re not his friends – small price to pay to give him a shot at being Speaker in 2015, right?
That’s what ALL of these useless, spineless moderates are always all about. They want the right thing to be done… by somebody else.
The right wing coup has ALREADY happened.
…Boehner the Dunce is the front-man stooge.
…A real bomb-thrower would not be any different in terms of obstructive agenda, and might, just might show the entire country the truth of today’s republican party.
Someone in the comments mentioned that the Democrats should back Peter King for speaker.
The more I think about that, the more I start thinking he might just be the guy that would make me miss the Tan Man.
If there’s a clearer sign that American is doomed than people describing Peter King as a “moderate” or “the voice of reason”, I don’t know what it is.
Well ideally they’d get primaried by super-crazies, and then enough of the super-crazies go on to lose to give Dems the house.
Of course, that’s the best case scenario.
Some, those from swing districts, might choose to run in 2014 as independents to avoid the Tea Party primary. Others might switch parties but the Democrats have not been kind to party switchers. Better to become an independent. It gives one a campaign slogan or two, “Independent thinker, doing what’s right for YOU despite party bosses.”
I worked for years at the Census Bureau. I’m worried for my colleagues there, and those who I worked with who moved on to other agencies. One friend works with the Council of Economic Advisors, and the pay is a hell of a lot lower there. Folks like him are really going to be hurting if this goes on a long time. If this had happened back in 2007 when I started there, I’d have been living at the Huntington Metro station.
For now, the GOPers are getting everything they deserve.
Roast, you fuckers.
I realize that this is only peripherally germane to Chait’s article, but can we please get started calling this shutdown what it is? It’s an attempted coup d’etat by the far right wing of the opposition party. Today is day two of the coup attempt.
I’m not exaggerating, either. Trying to reverse the results of the previous election by shutting down the government and ruining its credit is a de facto coup d’etat, especially when it comes from a group that despises government and governance in general.
As was stated in Godfather III, finance is a gun; politics is knowing when to pull the trigger. The GOP has pulled the trigger – it’s time to settle accounts…
“Congressional Leaders Report No Progress On Shutdown After Meeting With Obama”
http://talkingpointsmemo.com/livewire/congressional-leaders-report-no-progress-on-shutdown-after-mee
ting-with-obama
I just realized that shutting down U.S. Gov’t is the Congressional Republican Tea Party member’s on little “wet dream.” If they could only drown it in the bathtub too.
BTW, dems lost a procedural vote on a clean CR again. Moderates revolt? What moderates?
“I will not negotiate. Ok, maybe I will”
Is grand bargain the only way out?
Of course a grand bargain is the only way out. It always was.
What? You thought that the Republicans would just fund the government if Obama ignored them long enough?
Their inability to compromise is what makes it necessary to break them, but the end result is a big compromise. That’s how the government is supposed to work.
Their still stuck on revenues, so I don’t think you have to worry anyway.
No, it’s not. We do not need to have a “Grand Bargain.” Was one necessary when Bush was president? It’s only necessary because Republicans are vandals, and Democrats are pushovers.
Once again, we’re back to the negotiations of 2011 for a grand bargain. This is where you assured us that a grand bargain was not the reason for negotiating over the debt limit (it was his re-election).
That is not an accurate reflection of what I argued at the time.
I argued that the president was free to make offers that he knew he would not be called upon to keep.
I argued that he was making himself look flexible and willing to compromise while Republicans were making themselves look inflexible and unwilling to compromise.
But I never argued that, in the aftermath of the 2010 midterms, Obama had the option of not offering a deal on the deficit and debt.
He couldn’t make the Republicans accept any revenue, and once that was clear, he was free to say whatever he wanted. But, had they been willing to accept revenue, he would have been justified in making a deal. In fact, that’s how government works. If one party controls the House and another controls the Senate, then they have to make a deal. Apparently, the Republicans don’t agree with this, so we had the debt limit fiasco and the sequester and now the shutdown. The solution is still a deal.
Obama: “If we wanna do more deficit reduction, I’ve already put out a budget that says “Let’s do it” I’m willing to reform entitlements.”
He campaigned on protecting social security and medicare – PERIOD – and all he wants to do is destroy them. Truly evil.
Not just evil!
Worse than Bush!!!!!111
Get a grip.
I knew it. Obama is negotiating against himself again. And the sad thing is he’s the worst f’king negotiator ever. Lose lose for democrats. Looks like he doesn’t give a s’it about the Dem party or 2014 elections if he’s looking for the Grand Bargain again. Obama and his Grand Bargain is like the Teabaggers and their defunding Obamacare Neither ever gives up and it keeps coming back.
Couldn’t Harry Reid and Nancy Pelosi keep this amateur hour POTUS from trying to give away the store again. Guess the GOPers were right all along. If they waited Obama out, he’d cave. They’ve been very specific publicly about that.
Boehner Says Obama Still Won’t Negotiate
Too soon. Wait awhile. He’ll cave.