A few days ago, Rolling Stone published a Tim Dickinson article on the inner doings of “the Republican suicide machine.” It’s a big piece, and on page four there is a description of John Boehner, Eric Cantor, and their relationship to the business community.
Boehner and Cantor have learned to speak the language of the Tea Party – the majority leader more fluently than the speaker – but their real job is to keep the old Republican-patronage machine humming. In their political bloodlines and in their donor networks, both Boehner and Cantor are deeply connected to the politics of Rove. Boehner’s signature accomplishment was steering George W. Bush’s education initiative No Child Left Behind to passage – a law that [Heritage Action president Michael] Needham decries as “a gargantuan federalization of education” and “an anathema to conservatives.” For his part, Cantor was a key member of the 2003 Tom DeLay whip team that twisted arms in an infamous all-night session required to pass the deficit-financed Medicare prescription-drug plan, a Rove-driven gift to Big Pharma and the most sweeping expansion of the program since the days of Lyndon Johnson.
Looting Main Street
Boehner is renowned as a “Chamber of Commerce Republican” – and the campaign-finance data are unambiguous: In the 2012 election cycle, Boehner was the House’s top recipient of campaign cash from 34 different industries, from hedge funds and investment firms to coal mining, studentloan companies, hospitals, nursing homes and Big Tobacco. He was also the top recipient of campaign cash from lobbyists themselves, raking in $393,000 according to data compiled by the Center for Responsive Politics. In D.C., the speaker’s clubby network of staffers and lobbyists is known as “Boehnerland,” and its members include heavy hitters for Citigroup, UPS, Altria, AmEx, Akin Gump and the National Federation of Independent Businesses. “The Boehner folks barbecue on Sunday together, they go on vacations together, they name their kids after each other,” says the former leadership aide.
Although he’s positioned himself as a kindred spirit of House insurgents, and has even joined the RSC, Cantor is perhaps more deeply knitted into the Republican establishment than Boehner is. It was Cantor’s prodigious fundraising talents that elevated him to the fast track in 2003, when he became chief-deputy whip after just one term in Congress. Married to a former Goldman Sachs VP, he speaks the language of the investment class and is said to sell financiers on the “return on investment” of their political donations to the party. He’s been a fierce defender of the hedge-fund loophole that taxes the income of top investors at less than the rate of their secretaries – once arguing that taxing “carried interest” at normal rates would hurt “the average blue-jean-wearing American.” Over his career, he’s raised more than $2.4 million from the investment community.
John Boehner and Eric Cantor are a little different than freshman lawmakers like Rep. Ted Yoho of Florida whose day job in 2009 was cutting the balls off large mammals in his veterinary clinic. Rep. Ted Yoho was recently quoted saying that a default on the debt would “stabilize” global markets. That’s the kind of clown that Boehner and Cantor have been trying to humor and placate.
If you want to know why I have been so serene about the threat of default, it’s because John Boehner and Eric Cantor are creatures of big business, and they have almost nothing in common with the Tea Baggers who forced this crisis upon the Republican leadership.
From there, it was easy to game this thing out. Boehner would never get his caucus to pass anything, and he’d be weakened and forced to rely on Democratic votes. He would never default.
And that is what happened:
Senate Republicans knew the House GOP conference was divided, and they knew Boehner’s hold on his conference was shaky, but they were still stunned by the GOP’s utter failure to accomplish anything.
“They are a majority party that wants to be a minority party,” the Senate Republican aide said of the House GOP. “This is not how a majority party acts. The majority party takes the power that it has and puts it to use. And in this case, they refused to use the power they had because they would rather rail against the majority that they should be trying to deal with.”
“They showed they would rather be in the minority than have to deal with a Democratic majority in the Senate and a Democratic president.”
Now, it’s up to Senate Republicans, with no majority, to find a way out. “We’re not going to go into default,” the aide said.
A lot of politically savvy people are “stunned” by this, but I sincerely do not know why. Everything went exactly as I thought it would. I could never see any other outcome being even remotely likely.
The Morning Plum: John Boehner’s `moment of truth’ arrives
By Greg Sargent
October 16 at 9:01 am
From the very beginning of this whole crisis, two facts have been plainly obvious to anyone who cared to appreciate the basic dynamics of the situation:
Today, with Senators close to a deal to reopen the government and lift the debt limit, John Boehner may finally have to come to terms with those two facts, and accept their implications: The only way out of this mess is through an alliance of non-Tea Party Republicans and Democrats.
The collapse of the House’s plan to end the crisis — precipitated by conservatives who said it didn’t extract enough in concessions on Obamacare in exchange for averting widespread harm to the country – once again confirms point two above. Meanwhile, Jackie Calmes has a good piece reporting on the White House’s conclusion early on that the only real option was to refuse to legitimize GOP extortion tactics, having been badly burned in 2011. This basic White House motive should have been obvious for weeks.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line/wp/2013/10/16/the-morning-plum-john-boehners-moment-of
-truth-arrives/
Ouch:
we sure miss her down here in Texas.
KBH? Please!! They’d have been better off with someone like Jim Hightower in the Senate. KBH would have stood up to the Teahadists? Hahahaha!! Keep deluding yourself.
Ouch:
It’s gonna be a day of unsheathed daggers.
TP’ers are stuck in an echo chamber. It may seem crazy, but when Rush, Fox and your leadership are telling you what you want to hear in order to exploit you…. not gonna end well.
What once was a political party that controlled a propaganda machine is now a propganda machine that controls a political party.
Excellent! Truthful and well spoken!
All very reassuring, I suppose, although the past week is not exactly a model of what one would suppose financial robber barons “want” to see happen to the building block of their various financial schemes, the US treasury bond. Some “return on investment” (which sounds very much like, um, bribery…)
So, even if predictable, a big decision day for the Drunken Boner and his little Wall Street sidekick Cantor, both of whom can’t keep playing the pacify-the-pinheads game any longer if this analysis is correct. Those two and their CEO and Wall Street Wizrd buddies are apparently about to go over to the Dark Side of Hatin’ America and Traditional Muricans(tm) and giving Soshulizm free reign over sovereign citizens! Betraying Freedom! In other words, Tea Turd treason.
Another rubicon looms for the heroic Canada Cruz as well (and Lee and the rest of the senate teaturds). They have the power to fight to the bitter end for America and against Obaman Socialism. All they need do is stand up and proudly proclaim two little words: “I object!” This is a revolution, after all! The Second American Revolution! They have the fifes and tricorne hats to prove it!
To fail in this sacred duty is to fail to fight for Murica, and the end of Cruz’s ambitions. There could be no greater traitor than a member of the patriot movement who weakly and cravenly defers to rationality and inevitability and remains silent in the face of America’s certain destruction via Obamacare. And getting to 67 to change the rules should be a real lift, if the fear of the vaunted Tea Turd primary is so strong that it supposedly has allowed a “handful” of “extremists” to take effective control of the House. If Cruz fails to object, he essentially cuts his own throat. I don’t think his “patriots” will understand…
Should be some great teevee….
So, even if predictable, a big decision day for the Drunken Boner and his little Wall Street sidekick Cantor, both of whom can’t keep playing the pacify-the-pinheads game any longer if this analysis is correct.
Isn’t “Tailgunner” Ted Cruz’s wife a VP of some sort at Goldman Sachs presently?
They are a majority party with an angry purist minority party trying to get out like the chest-bursting baby monster in Alien.
It’s time for the country club set to understand that they can have a good climate for making money only under mildly center-left Democratic governance, and that therefore they have to cut Main Street a modest but significant cut of the profits. Their strategy of manipulating the stupid fundagelicals to help them attain their maximalist Randian goals lies in tatters. Yes, the country needs something a lot better than that arrangement, but politics is the art of the possible and it will take years of patient organizing on the left to make something better possible. There are far worse things than a couple more decades of
Clintonism.
It’s got to be better than Clintonism. Not socialist paradise, but Obama’s not going to take us back to DLC. what we need is a New Deal for our time.
Yes, it needs to be better. It won’t be, though, without a lot lower ratio of infighting to hard work on the left. And it won’t happen in the immediate future, no matter what.
We have the people, we will have more: people like
Sherrod Brown, Howard Dean, Elizabeth Warren, Ron Wyden, Jeff Merkley, Alan Grayson, Marcy Kaptur, John Lewis, Jim McGovern, Bernie Sanders . . .
http://braley.house.gov/issues/populist-caucus
If it was never an option then he shouldn’t have negotiated in 2011. I mean I never thought it was an option because I believed there were ways around Boehner’s incompetence. But either the president did think it was an option in 2011 (which would mean it is an option now) or he didn’t think the GOP would take the thrashing they’re currently taking (or as I’ve argued, he wanted an excuse to embrace his deficit fetish).
While I agree, it’s all in the past and hardly worth arguing about now. I’ve been very happy with the way Democrats have been carrying out the fight this time around.
I suppose, but it’s worth knowing exactly where the headspace of the leadership is. Hopefully they’ve learned their lesson to never ever do this crap again. And when the GOP caves this time, just as they would have in 2011, hopefully we won’t be down that road of debating it again. But with a shortened period, who knows lol. Are they sadists?
I’ll take politicians who learn from their mistakes over ones that don’t.
I think Obama’s idea in 2011 was that the GOP would never stand for all the cuts in the sequester any more than the Democrats would. He didn’t realize that even the MIC could not control the tea party. So they just breezed right through the sequester without blinking. That amazed me as well.
My position on that is this:
That’s plausible but I believe their polling would have cratered just as it is now (and arguably as it did then despite getting a deal). If anything I think it’s equally arguable that we might have won the House if he stood up to them then. The base is activist base is loving it, his polling among Dems is high, and Republican morale is demoralized and even more of a bubble than skewed polls. Go check the Freepers.
Anyway, we’ll never know.
The president was facing reelection. Bad as it was, he was on better terrain this time, and the tea party was on much worse terrain having lost in 2012. Obama knows when and where to pick his battles. And as I said, he did have a strategy; he did not think the GOP would allow the sequester to continue; he was wrong, but it was a reasonable calculation at the time.
“they were still stunned by the GOP’s utter failure to accomplish anything”
Seriously? I agree with you, I would have been stunned if they had passed something (and I am not particularly well informed about politics). The only place you and I have differed is I haven’t been completely confident that Boehner will do the right thing before it’s too late. People can make horrible mistakes when they’re under enormous pressure, and it’s unnerving to have everything depend upon one man. But you may just know him better than me. Certainly I find your quote from Dickinson reassuring.
It looks like all of your predictions will bear out. That said, my one concern throughout all of this wasn’t with respect to Boehner and and Cantor’s true loyalties, but with their ability to do anything other than tie their own shoelaces and breathe oxygen. I actually could imagine a universe in which they didn’t intend to default but still blundered into it as a result of their own idiocy, which is why I didn’t place complete confidence in gaming out the situation.
You’re right, that was the really scary part. But on the other hand, I think there’s been a general misunderstanding of Boehner.
It was intentional. He’s such an uninspiring and seemingly pathetic figure, such a piñata for everybody. But all along he was actually babysitting the tea party for the establishment GOP, which had become virtually invisible since 2010. Yet they were always there in the background, and Boehner’s weakness and tan drabness was part of the camouflage. Boehner is a professional, a cagey old pol, a very unlikeable guy, but, as Booman said, “not insane”.
In support whereof, Robert Costa, probably the key journaliswt in the coverage of this whole crisis:
” To me, there’s no better subject right now in politics than the complicated political life of Boehner. I’ve done everything from go to Pete’s Diner where he eats every morning at 6:30 a.m. and chat briefly with him to covering his House Republican conference meetings in a windowless room in the basement of the Capitol to talking with his aides and allies. Watching Boehner grapple with his power–his fragile power–has been a colorful story.”
http://www.newrepublic.com/article/115179/robert-costa-interview-national-review-reporter-talks-abou
t-shutdown
For the Party of the double down, now all is left is to triple down the path of stupidity and follow Palin demanding impeachment.
You’ve seemed to call Boehner’s amazing sobriety correctly; apparently he used a procedural message to cut out the necessity for one of the two Senate unanimous consent motions. The question never was the alignment of his interests and his incentives. It went to his mental state, capability for rationality, and the number of votes he could get to join with Democrats.
On this last item, Charles Dent seems to think that the votes are there. But Dent and Pete King also were not going into shutdown, and the Rules Committee (loaded toward nutcakes) prevented that break from occurring. Don’t expect the insurgent Tea Partiers to go quietly either in the House or the Senate.
Even if this takes until tomorrow, the real situation of the Treasury seems to be there is money until sometime in the last week of October. But the exact condition changes from day to day depending of what revenues actually come in. I wouldn’t put it past the Tea Party nitwits to try to dork around with revenue refusals.
So for now, it looks like the legislative disaster has been avoided.
It’s not something that I want to see tested, but it still is not altogether sure that crossing the debt ceiling line equals default or what actually would happen. And it is that uncertainty that is the biggest financial danger for the long term. Which is why Democrats should move as quickly as possible to permanently remove that capability for minority factions of Congress to take hostages.
Not to rub your nose in it, but I think you ought to consider the possibility that I might be right about a few more things than just how this was going to play out.
After all, part of getting this right was in correctly understanding the president. You are always telling me how you are tired of trying to divine where the president stands and how you hate 11-dimensional chess.
Well, the whole point of 11-dimensional chess is that it isn’t easy to understand. It’s all moving pieces and thinking many steps ahead and using your enemy’s predictability and lack of maneuverability against them.
Knowing what your enemy cannot agree to is quite liberating.
Truer words were never spoken.
How diplomatic of you.
It’s actually none of those highly rational things. It’s doing all that watching where stuff is blowing up and muddling through. When history gets to look at the email correspondence, you will see that I am right on that view of process.
As a citizen, I am tired of all of the deception and indirection in how the government operates. It is not conducive to the informed consent that democracy requires. And I know it is what it is.
In this case, Boehner’s decision already has hurt a heck of a lot of innocent people and a miscalculation by him could have produces a slow-unrolling global catastrophe. Playing 11-dimension chess in a game mindset without understanding the human import is about as cruel as one can be. That is why it is important to get back to more regular political processes as quickly as possible. Too many people have already been hurt by the way that politics in America continues to play out thirteen years after the Supreme Court coup d’etat. And I see no great determination from our Washington and state-level Democratic leaders for that to change. Indeed, again and again, Democrats have been blindsided by the GOP’s failure to follow conventional politics.
And that’s why this triumphalism seems so out of place.
We have to take our triumphs where we find them, TarHeel.
That Boehner would have to cave was assured. When he caved was up to him, not the president. No one had to get hurt. But this process had to play out, one way or the other.
This is a notable example of the mindset the grifters have been trying to create among their marks and the Real Americans who represent them in Congress:
http://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/um-holy-crap
So, white Americans must save our country from the Black President. Got it.
That’s that twerp Needham again, one of DeMint’s henchmen and an architect of the shutdown.
I like those fast cuts and cello jabs and tympani rolls. Classic.
Proof that Heritage Action is a pure grift:
http://talkingpointsmemo.com/livewire/heritage-action-ceo-everybody-knows-we-won-t-be-able-to-repeal
-obamacare-until-2017
Needham: “Well, everybody understands that we’ll not be able to repeal this law until 2017.” Then why are they whipping the f*** out of a “NONONO” vote because the proposal doesn’t kill Obamacare?
I don’t know who should be more offended by the fakery, the rubes or the members of Congress who are getting tons of angry phone calls from the rubes.
Want some schadenfreuedensnark?
A guy who’s obviously enjoying Yoho’s Defeat.
Yes .. because Yoho is his Rep. Compare him to my Rep.(and Boo’s) Jim Gerlach. You never hear a peep about the guy, ever. In fact the only time I heard about him was when he decided to run for Governor in ’10 only to back out once Corbett announced.
I still think shutdown might happen. If it does, this union leader has a good idea for relief. Unless, of course, our rime concern is that the Chinese government gets their interest payments.
Predictions?
These snippets of the just released GOP talking points that Robert Costa is tweeting right now are fucking hilarious.
Glad we’ve had Costa. Would hate to have to depend on the national media for reliable info.
“A lot of politically savvy people are “stunned” by this, but I sincerely do not know why.” I suppose it’s because they ‘ve never seen anything like it before, and they were not able to analyze its general principles.
We would be remiss if we did not consider the upcoming backlash from those led on by Cruz, Lee, Neugebauer and their fellow seditionists.
They got their base “het up fer nuthin’.” These people have guns and the internal movement permission to go violent. I give it a few weeks.