I took a look last night at the Senate seats up for reelection in 2016, and I think the Democrats could potentially net a gain of ten seats if their presidential candidate wins a convincing victory. I don’t know how well the Democrats will do next year, but assuming that they don’t lose their majority, the next president could be a Democrat who has more than 60 senators. Maybe when I have more time, I will spell out which seats I think the Democrats can win, but the seats are going to be there for the taking.
As to the House, it may take two elections to get back the majority, but it looks like we’re approaching the point where it might be possible in 2014. The catch is that we don’t know how much damage the Republicans plan on doing to their brand between now and next November. If the elections were held today, I’d bet against winning enough seats, but I’d expect that Republicans’ majority to be whittled down to something like 223-212. That’s doesn’t give them much of a cushion.
David Dayen does an Atrios profile.
Well, well. I’ll see your Chained COLA and raise you a retirement income. lol
And of course here in MN this is the cycle where the dems have no decent candidate in the MN-06 race against bachmann’s replacement, teabagger Tom Emmer (drunk driver, homophobe, general idiot). Apparently Graves, the dem who nearly won last time, felt that once Bachmann declared she wouldn’t run again “his job was done.” Asshole.
Well, he decided that he couldn’t win, which is somewhat different.
And yet Emmer is just as batty as Bachmann.
Apparently so are the people of MN-06.
As a sociologist, I belong to the minority who believe that the value of sociological theories is at least partly determined by the degree to which they make falsifiable predictions about the future. But even I would caution against the future being a more or less an arithmetic progression of current trends. History just isn’t like that. It twists and turns, just when you least expect it.
It is very tempting to believe that Republicans will continue to behave as stupidly as they have been, and that consequently much of the results of the mid-terms and 2016 Presidential elections is already baked in the cake. Demographic trends currently also all point in a Democratic directions, but just because Latinos overwhelming vote Democrat now doesn’t mean they will do so if the Republicans nominate a Latino candidate.
Right now a Christie/Rubio ticket is the Dems worst nightmare, attracting working class and moderate white Democrats, independents and Latinos. Christie isn’t associated with the shutdown or arch-partisan scorched earth policies directed at the Obama administration. If an absolutely awful, tone deaf, non-Christian, “moderate”, business friendly candidate like Romney can win the Republican nomination and come within 4% of beating a sitting President, how much more so can Christie win an open seat election even against potentially the Dem’s strongest candidate, an “aging” Hilary Clinton?
Yes there are lots of ifs and buts, and lots of other possible twists to the tale. But any Dem complacency now could be in for an unpleasant surprise.
We’ll see if the GOP can be practical next time around, and also whether Christie or Jeb Bush can overcome their vulnerabilities.
They are the only two candidates that I can see who could win the presidency, but getting the nomination would not be easy.
Jeb would have to overcome the disgrace of his brother, and Christie would have to overcome his apostasy on several burning issues and controversies.
But, the GOP electorate generally picks the most “electable” candidate, even when that candidate doesn’t reflect their values.
Conservatives hate Jeb Bush because of Terri Schiavo
I agree Christie-Rubio would be much more formidable than Romney-Ryan. But, remember we’re looking at another 2% shift from demographics and an additional 3% shift from defusing the racism component of the Republican vote. And then there’s the Obamacare aspect, which is certainly going to provide some electoral benefit by then, either by inspiring Democrats to save their insurance or depressing Republicans with a choice between two “socialist” tickets. So even a strong Republican ticket has a high hill to climb.
You are right, of course, that complacency is dangerous.
I have basically the same opinion as you, except that I think if the election were held right now with the sourness of the shutdown still on voter’s minds, that we’d be looking at a 50-50 shot of flipping the House. I think if nothing dramatic happens between now and Nov 2014, we’ll probably see a small House pickup but very probably not flip the House. I remain optimistic because I think Obamacare implementation will have dramatic political effects. (Remember the next open enrollment starts before the next election so website problems will be a thing of the past by then.)
The current budget negotiations will determine the 2014 house. Can the house vote on a budget? Will the senate filibuster or pass a budget? Will it be a 3 month or 12 month budget. The latter will bring up another stupid budget battle just before the election.
I hope this is an information for help me.
Logo Design
Website Design
i just hope that 2014 budjet will be in our favor.
bad credit business
Hoping the upcoming elections are in people’s favor.
Business Loans