I took a look last night at the Senate seats up for reelection in 2016, and I think the Democrats could potentially net a gain of ten seats if their presidential candidate wins a convincing victory. I don’t know how well the Democrats will do next year, but assuming that they don’t lose their majority, the next president could be a Democrat who has more than 60 senators. Maybe when I have more time, I will spell out which seats I think the Democrats can win, but the seats are going to be there for the taking.
As to the House, it may take two elections to get back the majority, but it looks like we’re approaching the point where it might be possible in 2014. The catch is that we don’t know how much damage the Republicans plan on doing to their brand between now and next November. If the elections were held today, I’d bet against winning enough seats, but I’d expect that Republicans’ majority to be whittled down to something like 223-212. That’s doesn’t give them much of a cushion.
