Ever since California changed their election laws in 2010, I’ve been thinking about how to orchestrate a progressive insurgency from the Golden State. Despite my obsession, my ideas are still somewhat nebulous. Now I’m beginning to think about how the moderate, pro-business right can use some of the same ideas to revive the right’s fortunes in California and take the fight to the Tea Party.
The need is obvious. The Republicans are doing so badly in California with women, Latinos, Asians, and young people, that their party is effectively dead. Business leaders have already concluded that it’s more promising to support moderate Democrats than to spend a dime on Republicans.
The business community, always focused on the bottom line, increasingly sees moderate Democrats as the best investment for campaign dollars. The GOP just hasn’t been producing.
“We’re going to be redoubling our effort to help elect Democrats who understand business,” says Rob Lapsley, president of the Business Roundtable.
That’s what is happening right now in Georgia, where business leaders are lining up to fund Michelle Nunn’s Democratic campaign to win an open Senate seat.
“The vast majority of Americans say they don’t want the government to shut down, they want middle ground,” said John Wieland, founder of John Wieland Homes and Neighborhoods Inc., who together with his wife penned checks totaling $10,400 to Nunn’s Democratic U.S. Senate bid. In the 2010 midterms, the Wielands each gave $4,800 to the Republican Senate candidate.
“Michelle understands that middle ground, and that’s why we wrote the checks,” Wieland said.
It’s a sentiment shared by some business donors from Virginia to Arkansas, and one Democrats want to spread as the parties vie for control of the Senate in the 2014 midterms.
But why give to Democrats if you can find reasonable Republicans instead? If control of the Republican Party is slipping away from business leaders, maybe California is the place to attempt a comeback.
With 53 congressional seats, California lawmakers are collectively 12% of the House of Representatives. It’s incredibly easy to get on the ballot, and their nonpartisan blanket primary system makes it possible to run against a Republican without diminishing the right’s chances of electing a candidate. Likewise, it is possible to run against a Democrat without diminishing the left’s chances of electing a candidate.
Unlike in most states, California holds a primary where candidates are not formally endorsed by the parties. Instead, candidates indicate which party they “prefer.” You can say that you prefer the Republican Party or the Tea Party or the DisneyLand Party. And because no one can win without achieving a majority, and there is a second election between the two top vote getters, you won’t normally hurt your side of the political divide’s chances by bleeding off some of their votes.
To give a brief example of what I mean, in the 2000 presidential election in Florida, Ralph Nader got enough votes that would have otherwise gone to Al Gore to make the election close enough to steal. The result was eight years of catastrophe with George W. Bush as our president. Under California’s primary rules for most elections, there would have been a second election without Nader on the ballot. Al Gore would have won. Moreover, a lot of people would have been freed up to express their support for Nader in the first go around because they wouldn’t have had to worry that it would hurt Gore’s chances.
One result of this system is that it is possible to have the top two primary vote recipients come from the same party. When this happens, the two meet in a general election, and the more moderate candidate has the advantage because the other side of the political divide will be more inclined to vote for them.
What I have mind is basically a two-step process. It works a little differently for business-minded people on the right than it would for progressives on the left. The first step is to come up with a party name that clearly indicates that the candidate is on the right, but also that they are not from the socially-conservative, xenophobic Tea Party wing of the right.
The business community would provide seed money for a couple dozen candidates and run them in the districts where they are either likely to wind up in a general election against a conservative Republican or a fairly far-left Democrat in a somewhat competitive district.
In a race between a conservative Republican and a moderate “Republican,” the Democrats and independents in the district will vote in large numbers for the “Republican.” And in districts that are competitive, a far-left Democrat may not be able to hold enough of the middle to beat a moderate challenger. This would be particularly true if the moderate were pro-choice, pro-gay rights, pro-immigration reform, and environmentally responsible.
The second step is key. To illustrate it, it will be helpful to give this hypothetical right-wing party a name. Let’s call it the Republican Reform Party. The second step is that all the people who are elected on the Republican Reform Party ticket will agree to go to Congress and vote for one of their own on the first ballot to elect a Speaker of the House.
I need to explain how this would work. The Speaker of the House is elected by the entire body of the House of Representatives, not by the members of any one caucus. And the Speaker must win an absolute majority (218 votes) of the 435 members. Right now, I think there are 233 Republicans and 200 Democrats, with two vacancies. So, if 16 Republican Reform members were elected and refused to vote for a Republican on the first ballot, no one would get a majority. At that point, they could negotiate with the Republicans to get a moderate Speaker with the threat of voting for the Democratic candidate on the second ballot. They would have the power to make or break the Speaker both before they were elected and then every day after they were elected. That is because any member can call for a new election on the officers of the House at any time.
So, the goal would be to get about sixteen Republican Reform members elected. Washington and Louisiana have similar electoral systems and sixteen additional congressional seats to pick from. Added to California’s 53 seats, that makes 69 seats in states with these kind of primaries. Could a Republican Reform Party funded by moderate business leaders find sixteen winnable races in that pool of 69 seats?
I think it’s possible.
For starters, some new polling shows that Tea Party members are currently more satisfied with the Republican Party than non-Tea Party members. And the non-Tea Party Republicans are beginning to really pine for a third party alternative.
The most recent Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll, offers a stark window into widening divisions within the GOP over strategy and what kind of leaders Republicans want going forward…
Asked if they would be more likely to vote for an independent or third-party candidate for Congress if one existed in their district, just 19% of Democrats said they would.
But among all Republicans, that number was 28%. And among wavering Republicans—who constituted nearly a quarter of the poll’s registered voters—the desire to vote for a third-party candidate was a startling 41%.
There is no reason for business leaders to prefer a party that is as socially conservative as the modern GOP. While some in the energy producing industries might like climate change denialism, most business leaders have no use for such silliness. But, more than anything else, business leaders want a viable right-wing party that will protect their interests. They don’t have that anymore. California business leaders have already internalized this, but so far their only solution is to try to buy off Democrats. Some business-minded Republicans are talking about getting involved in Republican primaries, but they won’t get very far with that. In ordinary primaries, the most conservative candidate starts out with a huge advantage.
It’s time to try something else. The Republican Party’s national future can be seen in the California Republican Party’s present. It is doomed. And it’s already worse than useless to the business community. It’s time to launch a real third party effort in California, Washington, and Louisiana.
Many CA districts in 2012 saw DEM v. DEM and GOP vs. GOP in the general election. Interestingly enough, the better and more liberal DEM won in some of those contests. Haven’t heard any howling from either the TeaParty or “moderate” GOP about the results; so, don’t know what to make of that.
Will probably take a few more election cycles to evaluate how well this is working, but so far it’s looking better than many would have expected.
WRT to this:
It’s totally presumptuous to assume how certain voters would vote if they had fewer choices. Republicans could counter that statement with “if Buchanan hadn’t been on the ballot, GWB would have gotten more votes. Neither proposition can be known to be true.
The trouble with you, Booman, is you have a rational streak. 🙂
Sadly, there’s little rational about our politics.
I’m posting over at WaMo this weekend.
While I appreciate the usefulness of a rational right wing party that’s not the Democrats, why are you trying to save them at all right now? I think the better strategy is to expand this tent as far as possible, continue to marginalized the Republicans, and push an actual left agenda while we’ve got huge majorities in the future. Eventually there will be a split not only over this, but over the GOP’s ridiculousness. But I have no desire to accelerate such a split without first gaining from it legislatively.
The problem is that even if the Democrats get a filibuster-proof majority in all three branches of government there will ultimately be compromising among the varying degrees of Democrats from the progressives to the moderates/conservatives.
We saw this in full force in 2008 with a Stimulus plan that didn’t go far enough (in large part due to GOP demands for tax cuts, but also because of “fiscally conservative” dems uncomfortable with writing a check for $1.5T as recommended); and especially with the ACA when the far left Dems capitulated on the Public Option and made further concessions to democrats like Ben Nelson.
There is an old saying that even if there were only Democrats, there would still be two parties: Dems, and the Far-Left Dems. We’re seeing something similar occur with the GOP, but Dems have to stay united which is a very difficult thing to do.
Exactly, but you know what? We passed shit. Having Republicans…erm, excuse me, “Reform Republicans” taking over in blue districts doesn’t help in any way, it doesn’t eat into the far-right’s strangehold. It only allows the moderates to hide even more than they are (hi, Susan Collins!).
Expand our majorities, pass stuff with intraparty negotiating, marginalize the fascists.
Yes, we passed legislation that often did not go far enough for the progressives because we were too busy capitulating to the moderates in the same party.
We need on the left what the GOP has/had on the right: an unwavering commitment to their views and the ability for the rank-and-file to get in line and vote with their leadership.
I was impressed and surprised by how steadfast and unified the Dems were during the shutdown; we need to be able to do that on everything.
Another response I would give to seabe: while Republican extremism is making it very unlikely the GOP will regain the Presidency or a Senate majority, they are doing tremendous damage to the nation from their House majority, and the hegemony they gained from their 2010 wipeout election to gerrymander themselves into Legislative and House majorities will protect them from appropriate consequences for their extremism for the rest of this decade.
Could they lose the House? Possible, but unlikely, and if they do, it would be likely to be a thin Dem majority, and whether in the majority or minority the current House GOP caucus artificially shifts the Overton window rightward. In the meantime, these extremists are fucking shit up in dozens of States.
The final thing I’d say is that elections are unpredictable things. We and Harry Reid can believe that a Ted Cruz candidacy for President would be a disaster for the Republicans, but what happens if the Dem candidate becomes ill toward the end of the campaign, gets swallowed up in a scandal (whether real or ginned up), or the economy takes a dive again at the end of Obama’s Presidency?
It’s extremely dangerous for the most powerful country in the world to have one of their two political parties veer off into extremism. It’s not only desirable to split the Republicans, it’s becoming urgently necessary.
But Booman is not advocating that they challenge House Republicans, an effort he correctly sees as fruitless; he’s advocating they challenge Dems in bluer districts. How does that help us?
I’m arguing that they could do both.
But this wouldn’t help Democrats, except indirectly by restoring a consensus in Washington that the government is supposed to do things.
Right but so we replace a Democrat with a…consensus building Reform Republican. I don’t see that as positive.
No, the only way we reach consensus is by destroying and marginalizing them. California is their future, and it’s the only way. Then the “moderates” split off when they can no longer deal with the more liberal stuff we will pass.
the point of this article was to give political advice to frustrated business-minded Republicans who have finally reached the point where they not only can’t stomach the GOP’s social conservatism and anti-environmentalism and xenophobia, but they are actually having their bottom line’s threatened.
They can take my advice or leave it. But my advice wasn’t intended to help the Democratic Party or advance progressivism.
Yeah I know, that’s why I said I have no desire to help the bastards; I want to throw them an anvil. I’m mostly responding to the above commenters who see an advantage for this in advancing our agenda, when it does not.
Providing measured strategical support for moderate Republicans IS throwing the Tea Party a very heavy anvil, particularly since the public has absorbed the media’s fetishism of bipartisanship. And between now and the next election cycles, we continue to take major policy losses even with the Presidency and a Senate majority.
If moderate Republicans in the House were empowered, we could get immigration reform to Obama’s desk next week. But they’re not empowered, so it’s going to require the Speaker to buck the much more powerful Tea Party caucus in the middle of ongoing big budget fights. The Orange Man may do so, but it’s not easy to believe he will, is it? Immigration reform is not as vital as the debt limit.
One thing I’d point out is that the forced birth extremists have successfully and explicitly pulled the business community into the culture wars with their successful forays into the courts which allow business owners to deny their employees ACA-mandated abortion and contraception services.
EVEN IF they do not operate a faith-based institution.
EVEN IF they are not made to pay for their insurance plans’ abortion and contraception services.
This week’s D.C. Circuit Court judgment demonstrates how crucial the current battle is between Obama and the GOP Senate Caucus. I expect Majority Leader Reid and his Caucus to solve this, and I’d like to see the national Chamber of Commerce help them do so. The Republican position here is extremely weak; it needs to be crushed.
Booman, I gotta say this one leaves a bit of a bad taste. You’re one of the most clear-headed political minds we’ve got. You are a weapon to be wielded by the forces of progressive goodness. So, please explain again why you’re tossing the convert-the-whole-fucking-biosphere-into-a-blowjob-for-the-one-percent party a life preserver instead of an anvil?
Because he’s from New Jersey.
The only parts of the country where Republican voters could even possibly elect the kind of Republican Booman is trying to promote, are places like New Jersey, Maine, and some other parts of the Northeast. And they would be competing with Democrats, not tea party crazies.
Besides, in such places they already know this, they don’t need the advice.
Nationally, though, the GOP is splintering six ways to Sunday. Let it happen. I don’t think anyone can stop it anyway.
And this idea that Christie is a compromise between the far right and the establishment? First of all, that’s not how any part of the far right see it, and second of all, Rand Paul is aggressively claiming to be the rift-healer. Probably that’s going to be the new mantra, but it’s not the reality. Everywhere you look there’s a fight or potential fight. Popcorn, please.
Cruz is just getting started, and the establishment is also just getting started fighting him and his friends.
Sure, ultimately this country would benefit, under the two-party system, from a moderate GOP and a New Deal-like Democratic Party. If we’re lucky that will be the ultimate result. But this GOP civil war has to play itself out and that’s going to take a while.
And California and Washington.
They tried this; remember Arnold Schwarzenegger?
The flip-side to this argument is what is happening in the Virginia Governor’s race. As I’ve pointed out elsewhere, the votes that Cuccinelli needs are currently dedicated to the Libertarian candidate. If there was a three-way election, followed-by a two candidate runoff between McAullife and the Lt. Governor, then Cooch wins and he’ll implement a similar far-right wing agenda that Sarvis wants.
There is no incentive for Cooch to pivot to the left; if anything they just continue to “double down” on the notion that they are losing nationwide elections because the candidates are not conservative enough.
You’re suggesting that the GOP needs to divorce themselves from the far right and reinvent themselves as moderates/centrists in order to steal votes from the Independents/Moderates that are currently breaking for the Dems. I commented about this elsewhere on this blog, and pointed out how damaging it would be to the Democratic party if GOP figures this out because they would directly steal the Inds/Mods that are currently voting for Dems.
Tom McClintock, a longtime rightwing pain-in-the-ass in our legislature, currently serves my district in Congress. He’s not even from here either, but from a coastal area 6 hours south. He would likely be a ‘business’ friendly type, but he’s really as bad as any Tea Party fool out there. What you’re missing Boo is that there are districts in CA that are straight outta Nutjobistan, particularly once you hit the eastern side of the Central Valley or get above Butte County in the north.
The only way I see moderates winning in some of these areas is by faking hard right. Might as well be a Dem otherwise. It’s possible my district could change since it is growing pretty fast, but it will still be a while. I can’t wait to send McClintock back to where he came from though.
WA has similar issues. It currently has four Republicans (out of ten seats), all of whom have consistently voted Tea Party. But three of the four (the execrable Doc Hasting being the exception) have carefully cultivated more moderate reputations back home and are reasonably well-liked within their districts, including the equally execrable Cathy McMorris-Rogers and the walking brain stem known as Dave “Hairspray” Reichert. Of the four, only Reichert is either anywhere close to retirement or in a district (suburban/exurban) where this sort of approach might appeal.
The normal phenomenon of polls is that a party can be unpopular back in DC because it’s abstract, but a district will still keep electing “their guy” because they know him/her, or think they do. Throw in the huge advantages of incumbency after a term or two and it’s hard to see that approach getting very far even in districts so red or blue that two members of the same party can reasonably get to the final ballot.
How about shrinking them and then drowning them in a bathtub instead?
The GOP can just change its own internal rules if it wants to. Leave the rest of us out of the circular firing squad.
So what you’re saying is that the Mustache of Understanding was correct, just ahead of his time? 🙂
I’m not sure what you mean.
What I think you are beginning to see is that the blowing up of campaign finance laws in Citizens United (and to a degree even before with the direct funding of candidates) has made parties irrelevant, The idea of ideological branding was likely an early response to this emerging trend.
The election system in California has the effect of making parties even more irrelevant.
The Constitution never presumed the existence of parties and indeed Madison was concerned about permanent factions of the sort that we have seen the Tea Party become.
The theoretical problem that needs working on is not that of how to restore the two-party system. It is how to have ordinary people have the informed consent to drive the policies and direction of their government. The experiment of democratic governance was totally about the prospect the through self-governing the people themselves could create a society of peace and prosperity because they did not have the vested interest in continuing war and poverty. Parties became a mechanism in that experiment that produced mixed results.
The troubling question that must be asked relative to “saving the right from itself” is whether there is a valuable social function in having a right-wing in politics (or imaginatively a bipolar political structure) at all. Stating that social function is preliminary to any strategies to save it.
As ALWAYS, your analysis and opinions are incredibly thought-provoking and helpful. Thanks for being such a regular and prolific commenter on this blog.
“Unlike in most states, California holds a primary where candidates are not formally endorsed by the parties.”
This is not exactly correct. County and State Party leaderships are still executing their processes and announcing their endorsements, and it is still highly desirable to gain your Party’s endorsement here. It would be more accurate to write that in California the top June vote-getter in each Party no longer automatically makes it to the general election.
The bigger problem I have with BooMan’s hopeful scenario is that the second step he paints here, which I agree is key, would be very difficult to enforce. If moderate “Republican Reform”ers were elected, they would face enormous pressure and would be provided great incentive to support the conventional Republican caucus choice for Speaker. Among the additional reasons it would be difficult to hold GOP Reformers to a guarantee that they would use their caucus size to insure a moderate Speaker is that it is extremely unlikely they would campaign on the issue, and if they did I doubt that it would be a resonant campaign issue.
I believe this scenario to assure a more moderate Caucus leader would be easier to gain through Legislatures than through the monied halls of Congress. But that’s difficult too, because this decade’s gerrymanders have enabled even more extreme Legislators in many of the several States.
And in California, the Republicans have been in the minority for about two decades now, which makes their Leg Leaders much less important. The crucial break here is the 2/3rds majority necessary to pass a budget which increases revenues or pours more funding into expenses. The Republicans controlled the budget process here throughout the 2000’s from their <40% Leg minorities. Now that they are at 30%, they are prevented from hurting Californians.
If you want to promote an insurgency in California, I suggest that you contact Mister David O. Atkins.
Not only does he have a blog, but he is a Big Wheel in his county political machine. Juice like that is not to be discarded lightly.