It surprised me that there were only sixty-two Republican defections on the Murray/Ryan budget bill yesterday. It signaled to me that Paul Ryan has a lot more juice than John Boehner, and conservatives are more willing to follow Ryan’s lead. Because the House GOP didn’t need that many Democratic votes to pass the bill, it made it more difficult to extract concessions.

The vote is being interpreted as a big win for Speaker Boehner, and some are wondering whether or not it means that he will have the power to pass immigration reform. There are two ways that I am looking at that this morning. The first is reflected in the comments of the communications director of Heritage Action for America, Dan Holler.

There have been signals from high-ranking Republicans for some time that they were going to ‘address immigration’ in 2014. When they say that, it is typically code for some sort to amnesty,” Holler said. “That is a major concern, not just for policy reasons but because you can’t afford that, heading into a midterm election when you need your base to turn out.”

This interpretation argues against addressing immigration reform because it will divide Republicans and depress the enthusiasm of the base of the party. This is also why most people thought immigration reform needed to pass this year, because conservatives would need time to heal before facing the voters.

But there is a related second interpretation, which is that the main deterrent to bringing up immigration reform is that it will invite primary challengers for the members who support it. I noticed the other day, however, that the filing deadline for running for Congress in Illinois has already passed. As the weeks go by, more and more states will hit their filing deadlines and fewer and fewer incumbents will be vulnerable to retaliatory primary challenges. If you set aside the argument about unity and enthusiasm, it is preferable for House Republicans to wait until most filing deadlines are over before taking up such a contentious bill.

I admit that this is a chicken-shit way to behave, waiting until you are immune from accountability to vote, but it may be the strategy Boehner and Cantor are pursuing.

So, it’s possible that immigration reform can still happen, but with the turmoil in the Senate, I am not very confident that they could pass another immigration bill, so success may demand that Boehner break his November promise not to go to a conference committee on the Senate bill.

House Speaker John A. Boehner (R-Ohio) said Wednesday that the House will not enter negotiations with the Senate to hash out differences between its immigration plans and the Senate immigration bill — dealing a significant blow to the prospects of comprehensive immigration reform by this Congress.

“The idea that we’re going to take up a 1,300-page bill that no one had ever read, which is what the Senate did, is not going to happen in the House,” Boehner said. “And frankly, I’ll make clear that we have no intention of ever going to conference on the Senate bill.”

He would also have to break his promise not to violate the so-called Hastert Rule on an immigration bill, meaning that he would not allow a vote on any reform unless the majority of his caucus supported it.

Obviously, breaking those promises would come with some associated difficulties with conservatives, their media organs, and the base of the party. Yet, Boehner seems to have had some kind of epiphany, since he spent this week spewing contempt at the hard-right outside lobbying groups that have dominated this Congress.

What do you think?