We’ve all heard it before, but let’s hear it again:
At least half of all GOP voters sympathize with this Tea Party upsurge. They are overwhelmingly older, white, conservative-minded men and women who fear that “their country” is about to be lost to mass immigration and new extensions of taxpayer-funded social programs (like the Affordable Care Act) for low- and moderate-income working-aged people, many of whom are black or brown. Fiscal conservatism is often said to be the top grassroots Tea Party priority, but [Vanessa] Williamson and I did not find this to be true. Crackdowns on immigrants, fierce opposition to Democrats, and cuts in spending for the young were the overriding priorities we heard from volunteer Tea Partiers, who are often, themselves, collecting costly Social Security, Medicare, and veterans’ benefits to which they feel fully entitled as Americans who have “paid their dues” in lifetimes of hard work.
The young are ascendant by definition, and the browning of America is a demographic certainty, so the aging Tea Party most definitely has a short shelf-life as a viable and overly-influential force in American politics. But that doesn’t mean that they are going away soon, or quietly.
The root of the problem is the way the seats in Congress have been drawn. Earlier today, I kind of stumbled upon something interesting on this subject while I was trying to do some research on Cokie Roberts. I found a set of interviews she did with the Office of the Historian of the House of Representatives in 2007 and 2008. (You can read the interviews here in .pdf form). At one point in the interview, the House historian asked her how Congress has changed since her parents served there. Here is what Ms. Roberts had to say:
ROBERTS: I think that what this business of picking your voters—first of all, is so anti-democratic—it does a few very, very bad things. It creates a far more partisan chamber because you only worry about getting attacked from the true believers of your own party in a primary rather than a general election. Look what just happened to Chris [Christopher B.] Cannon as a perfect example of that.
You do only represent people who are just like you, so that your desire or even ability to compromise is far less that it used to be.
I’ll give you an example. Bob Livingston used to represent a district that was 30- percent black. So he voted for fair housing, he voted for Martin Luther King holiday, he voted for a variety of things that were not the things that people whose representative in the state legislature was David Duke expected him to do. But he could explain to the yahoos in his district that he had to do it because of the black constituency when it was actually stuff that he wanted to do. Then it was redistricted to be lily-white conservative Republicans, and, you know, it’s almost impossible for that person—it was [David] Vitter, I don’t know who it is now—to do that. You just have to be fighting your constituency all the time to do something that would be a sort of national interest thing to do. And that’s true on both sides. It just makes legislating and governing much, much harder.The President [George W. Bush], actually, was talking to me—I don’t often get to say, “The President was talking to me about it,” {laughter}—when I went with him to meet the Pope. We were talking about immigration, and he’s, you know, he’s basically just furious about immigration, about the failure of the bill, and he said, “It’s all about the way districts are drawn.” And it is fundamentally anti-democratic because the whole idea is you get to throw these people out. In 2006, I must say I was heartened, not for partisan reasons, but I thought they had drawn the districts so cleverly that you’d never be able to register that vote of no confidence, which an off-year election is—it’s either a vote of confidence or no confidence—I was afraid that that had been taken away from the voters, which would really be different from what the Founders had in mind. So the fact that even with that, you were able to change parties and register that vote was heartening, but it’s much harder than it should be.
I have to say, she pretty much nailed the problem there, and the problem got considerably worse after the post-2010 census redistricting was completed.
I think the problem is so bad that redistricting reform really ought to leap to the top of the progressive agenda. It’s an issue that should interest more than just progressives. We want it so that we can get stuff done, but moderate Democrats want it so that they can have more room to maneuver, business interests want it so the government will pay its bills on time and so the Republicans will stop losing elections because of lunatic candidates, and elected Republicans want it so they don’t have to worry so much about primary challengers.
It will take a lot of work, though, to make meaningful progress. One thing is always true no matter what. Every elected member of Congress was successful under the rules as they existed during their last election. No congressperson is going to be for changing the rules because they need the rules to change. The unhappy truth is that the reason reform is necessary is because too many members of Congress are in seats that the other party cannot contest, and the solution is to make many members’ seats less safe.
How do you convince a majority of the House to vote against their own narrow political interests?
And then there’s California Proposition 11, the Voters First Act, approved by voters in November 2008. Challenged twice by Republicans in court and by an aborted attempt at overturning it via referendum. For me the turning point was when the Republicans refused to let the citizens of the state vote on raising their own taxes. Sick of these anti-democracy ideologues and armed with new and fair districts the citizens voted out enough Republicans to capture a super-majority in both houses. Lo and behold for the first time in a decade California has a budget surplus.
It can be done.
California is an example, though, of how fair, competitive districts don’t necessarily make a state more politically diverse. If one party happens to be utterly full of shit, a redistricting plan like that can be their death sentence.
We want it so that we can get stuff done, but moderate Democrats want it so that they can have more room to maneuver, business interests want it so the government will pay its bills on time and so the Republicans will stop losing elections because of lunatic candidates, and elected Republicans want it so they don’t have to worry so much about primary challengers.
McIntyre, or his ilk, don’t have room to maneuver now? Business interests are pleased with the Teahadists. If you think they aren’t, I don’t know what to tell you. You think the Teahadist primary challenges are going to stop any time soon? Hahaha!!
No matter how insightful Cokie Roberts may be on any given subject, her reflexive need to add “And that’s true on both sides” – even when all the examples she can think of are on one side – to every declarative statement is one of many reasons she’s such a toxic symptom (and product) of Village media culture.
And yet, Democratic gerrymandering in Illinois has led to a Democratic Party almost indistinguishable from the 1960’s Republican Party. It is true, as you say, that Illinois’ Republican Party has become completely insane and divorced from reality, such that corporations now go to people like Madigan and Quinn to get their special tax breaks. Anyone remotely sane is ashamed of today’s religious crazies and anarchists.
. . . vote against their own narrow political interests?
Yes, good question. Are there any acceptable/viable answers?
I don’t see any.
Or is the problem that Democrats don’t do well in non-presidential elections. 2010 was a disaster. It led to the Tea Party gerrymandered districts that we now have. 2014 is shaping up to be another defeat for the Democrats.
http://www.cbsnews.com/news/gop-surges-ahead-of-democrats-in-2014-generic-ballot/
Isn’t that amazing. Passing Obamacare in the face of rabid opposition and then bungling the roll out will have cost us the chance to do anything else. I sure hope it is worth it and I sure hope that everyone benefitting from the Medicaid expansion (or being cut out of it) and the new cheaper policies start showing up to vote for Dems.
Because if they don’t… we’ll lose it all.
you keep pushing the “bungling the rollout” meme even though the federal site is now working well, some states never had any problems, and many thousands of people have in fact been able to sign up.
Millions of people have been left out because many states have refused the Medicaid expansion. That seems pretty bungled to me.
For which you can thank the Supreme Court, not the law as enacted.
I guess that is one way to look at it. On the other hand, ACA created an unsustainable policy by relying on the states to do the hard work. It was written that way knowing full well that many GOP governors were going to do everything they could to stop it. As Texas governor Perry said in 2010 (before the SC ruling):
“So I am working with other state officials – including Lieutenant Governor Dewhurst, Speaker Straus and Attorney General Greg Abbott – as we explore our various options to protect Texans from this disastrous bill.”
http://governor.state.tx.us/news/editorial/14504/
So to reiterate, ACA was bungled from its inception and I don’t feel bad at all saying that. It’s the truth and the blame lies with the legislators who crafted that provision. They were naïve, foolish, and they left millions out of the program because of it.
And… redrawing the congressional districts won’t change any of this.
My GOP-swinging-to-independent uncle has strangely come to some of the same conclusions I have. His comment on NC politics was that he had hoped that at some point we would have a viable two-party state. But he had a proposal that makes a lot of sense to me and might be an indirect way get a more health political geography of districts.
His proposal is to shorten elections to a six-week cycle like a lot of other nations do. Popular clamor for some common-sense (i.e. broadly agreed) election reform might allow for a challenger takeover of either or both parties.
If the establishments of both parties keep closing the doors to reform, they make a more chaotic process of change likely. The fact that people like my uncle are thinking the system is in deep trouble and offering opinions that he’s no doubt already checked with his buddies at his Baptist Church and with other friends in his small NC town tells me that the glacier is moving.
Thank you Booman for opening up a discussion on one of the worst problems we have in America. As is obvious from your column it is not going to be an easy fix but the first step in fixing a problem is awareness that there is a problem. I doubt that 5% of American voters are aware of this problem at this time.
I’ve lived in red state America for 2 1/2 years now. Last year there was a 5 way democratic primary to challenge my rep and the GOP wing nut won anyway. That was a district with a major university and, presumably, some liberal base. It didn’t matter, though. There just aren’t enough of us living in these places to make a difference. Maybe drawing the lines differently would make a difference.
But is it any better to take a liberal urban district and divide it up into multiple sections reaching out into the conservative suburbs and rural areas around it? I guess that might help us, but how do you argue it is any better… its just the liberal way to draw the lines.
The county by county election results from 2012 make it look like there isn’t much in the way of wiggle room to make a difference. We’ve clustered in ways that make GOP control of the House an easy thing to achieve.
Since it’s hard to get people to do something about gerrymandering, why not try apportionment? The Reapportionment Act of 1929 fixed the number of congressional representatives at 435, with the continuous effect of watering down the amount of representation afforded each voter.
Each district in the first Congress contained an an average of 33,000 citizens. Today, with about 700,000 citizens per district, we have 1/20th of the representation that we used to have, although the small population states with one at-large district fare better, e.g. the people of Wyoming are overrepresented in both houses of congress.
The constitution sets a floor of 30,000 citizens per district, but does not establish a ceiling. George Washington was unequivocal in his opinion that 40,000 citizens per district was too many. The first proposed amendment to the Constitution would have set a ceiling at 50,000 citizens. By 1792, it was actually ratified by 12 of 15 states. It should have been adopted as an amendment, but Connecticut’s ratification was somehow misfiled and not discovered until 2011. It is argued that if U.S. Archivist David Ferriero were to recognize Connecticut’s ratification, the Constitution would be amended.
It seems to me that smaller districts would make Representatives much more accountable to their constituents and less prone to corruption: It doesn’t cost nearly as much to campaign to 50,000 people as it does to 700,000: The balance would be tilted away from money and towards organizing. Radically smaller districts like these would also be much harder to gerrymander.
It’s hard to get traction on gerrymandering, because the side that reaps the benefits won’t renounce them. But apportionment has appeal across the political spectrum as well as a plausible path to implementation.
That’s a good idea and it would lower the amount of staff needed by each Rep too because they would have more time to actually do their job.
The claims about demographic inevitability made here are strongly challenged by Thomas Frank in the January 2014 issue of Harper’s:
http://harpers.org/archive/2014/01/donkey-business/
It’s hard to imagine how one can end gerrymandering short of a citizen initiative. I would propose a law that sets a limit to ratio of circumference to area. A circle, for example has the least circumference to area of any shape. Congressional districts on the other hand tend to look like Rorschach inkblots. By setting a limit to ratio of circumference to area it would force districts to be more compact and therefore more heterogeneous.