There is no doubt that the Republican Party, writ large, is incredibly high on their own supply of bullshit, which leads them to be much too overconfident about their electoral prospects in November. They could do very well in the midterms, but nothing is baked in the cake right now.
Nonetheless, their political consultants are encouraging a course we might dub the “don’t fuck it up” strategy. The way they see it, if they don’t do something stupid like threaten to default on our sovereign debt again, they are almost assured of retaining the House and taking control of the Senate. Of course, they also want to avoid nominating “loser” candidates.
I agree that they’ll do better if they don’t nominate “fools” and refrain from more hostage-taking, but those two things are insufficient to win them the midterms.
They need to figure out not why they lost Senate elections with “loser” candidates, but why they lost them with decent candidates. Why did Jon Tester and Joe Manchin get reelected in Montana and West Virginia, respectively? Why did Heidi Heitkamp win in North Dakota? Why did Tammy Baldwin skunk Tommy Thompson in Wisconsin? What allowed Dean Heller to beat Shelley Berkley in Nevada?
Most Republican incumbents are properly considered safe bets for reelection, but Mitch McConnell is not going to beat Alison Lundergan Grimes unless he offers some positive vision.
Yet, the more difficult task will be to challenge Democratic incumbents or take over open seats previously held by retiring Democrats. There a reason that Republicans have a goose-egg record of winning statewide office in West Virginia despite the fact that it has been getting more and more Republican-friendly in presidential elections. There is a reason that the Democrats have consistently won statewide elections in the Dakotas and Montana, despite the fact that those states are very conservative. These election results are not easily explained, and, in most cases, have not involved horribly flawed candidates.
So, even though the Republicans are targeting newly-open seats in Iowa, Montana, South Dakota, and West Virginia, there is no reason to assume now that the Democrats can’t compete in those states in November.
They think they can knock out some incumbents in red states, like Mark Begich of Alaska, Kay Hagan in North Carolina, Mark Pryor in Arkansas, and Mary Landrieu in Louisiana, but incumbents are not easily defeated.
The biggest advantage the Republicans have is that it is easier for them to turn out their base in midterm elections than it is for the Democrats. But I don’t think Mary Landrieu, Mark Pryor, or Mark Begich are unhappy not to be sharing the ticket with Barack Obama, as they were in 2008 when they were last elected. This time around, they aren’t afterthoughts who have to overcome John McCain’s advantage in their states. They can stand alone on their own merits, and that’s an advantage to them.
The GOP can certainly damage their prospects by resorting to more unpopular antics, but the country doesn’t live in their media bubble, and it won’t vote as if it does. To win the midterms the way they hope to win them, they will have to develop a positive message.