There has been a lot of analysis on what it will take for Texas to become a purple (and eventually, a blue) state, and when that might happen. Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY) is warning that it could happen by 2024 if the GOP doesn’t become more inclusive. Organizers on the ground are trying to make it happen in 2016, although that is unlikely to happen.
There has been some polling that suggested that Hillary Clinton would be very competitive in Texas, although I can’t imagine her dedicating the kind of resources she would need to make a sincere effort there.
Regardless, statistics like these show that it’s only a matter of time before the GOP succumbs in the Lone Star State:
By 2050, the number of Texas public school students is expected to swell to nine million from roughly five million now, and nearly two-thirds will be Hispanic, according to Steve Murdock, a demographer and director of Rice University’s Hobby Center for the Study of Texas. The overall percentage of white students will drop by half to about 15 percent. Without an accompanying change in Hispanics’ current socioeconomic status, that also means Texas students will continue to grow poorer — and their education more expensive — in the next four decades, Dr. Murdock added.
The Republicans can compete for those votes, but they can’t compete for them as a conservative party. Personally, I think Texas will be truly competitive in 2028, but not before unless there is a major disparity in the quality of presidential candidates. That disparity could manifest itself in 2016, but I wouldn’t bet on it being big enough to matter in Texas.