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In reply to Dodo @ET …
Under the constitution of the Ukraine, the Chairman of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine of VI Convocation would be in line to succeed President Vanukovich. That would be Volodymyr Rybak, unless mob rule decided otherwise. Rybak ‘resigned’ for health reasons and parliament elected the successor to president Yanukovich until new elections on May 25. Similar to the overthrow of Egypt’s president Morsi, we won’t call it a coup d’etat. Obama praises the constructive process in Ukraine’s parliament. Did the EU deal of 2 days ago disintegrate under mob violence? Not long ago, Ms Victoria Nuland spoke her infamous words: “Fuck the EU.”
US: Russia involvement in Ukraine ‘grave mistake’
(ITV) – US President Barack Obama’s national security adviser said it would be a “grave mistake” for Russia to send military forces into Ukraine and that it is not in the interest of Russia, Europe or the US to see Ukraine split apart.
Speaking on NBC’s Meet the Press, Susan Rice was asked about a possible scenario in which Russia would send forces into Ukraine to restore a government more friendly to Moscow.
“That would be a grave mistake,” Rice said. “It’s not in the interests of Ukraine or of Russia or of Europe or the United States to see a country split.It’s in nobody’s interest to see violence return and the situation escalate.
Continued below the fold …
The battle for Kiev may well be over, but is the battle for Crimea about to begin?
While many in Kiev are celebrating today, the situation in some other parts of the country still appear tense. For an example, look toward Crimea. The video below shows a small anti-government group being violently harassed after trying to honor those who died in the Maidan protests – they’re shouted down, called “fascists,” and eventually beaten before police step in. As the Guardian’s Shaun Walker, who tweeted the video, explains, it looks “extremely ominous.”
Майдан в Керчи – Maidan in Kerch
From the 18th century on, the region was part of Russia, but that changed in 1954, when the Supreme Soviet of the Soviet Union passed it from the Russian Soviet Federative Socialist Republic to the Ukrainian Soviet Socialist Republic, a decision that is still controversial in some circles. Today the peninsula might still be a part of Ukraine, but in many ways it is separate from the rest of the country: It has its own legislature and constitution, for example, and it’s still very Russian: Some 60 percent of the population is ethnically Russian, with the rest being Ukrainian or Crimean Tatars.
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Volodymyr Konstantinov, the speaker of Crimea’s parliament, recently told lawmakers that the region may well secede if Ukraine’s tensions begin to pull it apart. The parliament has also suggested that the region’s constitution be amended to list Russia as the “guarantor” of Crimea’s autonomy.The situation is complicated by the fact that many Russians view Crimea as part of Russia: one recent poll found that 56 percent of Russians view Crimea as a Russian territory.
During Obama’s presidensy and after Libya and Syria, we a third nation readied for
democracycollapse.○ Ukraine: Extremists Reject EU Deal, Demand Violent Overthrow
○ Ukraine’s Holodomor of 1933 and the Maidan RevolutionPS With one eye, I’m watching the closing ceremonies of the Winter Olympics in Sochi. For the Dutch, the Orange brigade had its most successful results ever, a 5th place with 8 Gold – 7 Silver – 8 Bronze. Russia finished on top and USA took 4th by count of Gold medals. Russia kept its promise keeping the Olympic Village secure from terror attack coming from within [Caucasus] or from foreign sources [Al Qaeda].
○ Andrew Kreig, US media expert interview on Russia Today … Anti-Sochi Behavior: ‘Cold War’ media roaring at Russia.
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Russia has recalled its Ambassador to the Ukraine for consultation in Moscow. As Western powers applaud the actions of opposition leaders, the first acts are clearly counterproductive to reconcile differences. Parliament has banned the Russian language as second official language in the Ukraine. This is similar to the Baltic states when these claimed its independence from Russia. These divisive measures will lay the basis for a separation of East and West.
○ Pro-Russian rally in Sevastopol, against Ukrainian Nazism; Lavrov and Kerry speak by phone
I rate the chance of Russian invasion at 80%. That goes up to 95% if the EU sends troops. 100% if the US sends troops. I usually don’t rate anything at 100%, but that would end forever Putin’s dreams of a re-united Russian Empire with himself as Czar. If I lowered it at all it would be to 99.99999%.
And if US troops and Russian troops fire at each other … I wish I had one of those 1950’s bomb shelters.
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I was surprised by the harsh criticism from Mikhail Gorbachev directed at “bulldozers full advisers” pouring into Kiev to influence internal Ukrainian affairs.
○ Gorbachev urges Putin, Obama to help end Ukraine crisis – Jan. 23, 2014
Gorbachev…one of the few real statesmen of the late 20th/early 21st centuries. Too bad statemanship almost always loses to One-Upmanship/Great Gamesmanship. Power comes from the barrel of a gun, as Mao Zhedong so sagely observed in his early days as a “terrorist,” and it’s guns that also produce and protect financial power.
Ukraine prediction?
Another version of the “Arab Spring” dance. Different outside powers pulling and pushing in different ways, the final result being the sum of their various vectors with lots of false moves in between.
Like dat.
Watch.
Sooner or later…until the superpowers crash, at the very least…exactly like dat.
Watch.
AG
Empty threats.