There is nothing in Henry Kissinger’s advice for handling the crisis in Ukraine that I disagree with, but I think it’s incomplete. He explains the historical, sectarian, ethnic, linguistic, and regional issues very well, but he doesn’t touch on the economic considerations that touched this crisis off, nor does he mention the energy issues that inform every step that each side takes in response. It was the failure of the Ukrainian government to sign an association agreement with the European Union that put protestors in the streets in the first place, and it was heavy Russian pressure that influenced the Ukrainians’ decision-making.
Here is how the BBC reported on it back when the decision was made before the November conference in Vilnius, Lithuania:
The EU’s Eastern Partnership is designed to improve trade and political relations with six former Soviet Republics – Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine – caught in that awkward space between the European Union and Russia.
Ukraine is the biggest country and hence the biggest prize.
So when the Ukrainian government suddenly announced last week – under pressure from Moscow – that it was freezing its plans to sign an association agreement with the EU, the centrepiece of the Vilnius summit disappeared rather abruptly.
Russian threats of economic retaliation ought to be addressed in any advice piece on Ukraine policy.
