When we, as consumers of news, look at poll results on public policies or laws, we don’t actually want to know if they are popular or unpopular. That information, by itself, is useless. If we’re primarily concerned with policy, we want to know what elements of law are working or are not working. If we’re primarily concerned with politics, we want to know what parts of the law people like and what parts they don’t like. The Republicans forget this when they treat ‘ObamaCare’ like it is a dirty word.
If you look at the graphic in the latest CNN poll, it doesn’t look good. Yes, the trend is favorable, but most people still don’t like the law. But, if you look just a tiny bit deeper into the poll results, you’ll discover something interesting. We have reached the point that a majority of Americans either like the law or want something more comprehensive, like single-payer. “Not all of the opposition to the health care law comes from the right,” said CNN Polling Director Keating Holland. “Thirty-nine percent say they oppose the law because it’s too liberal, but 12% say they oppose it because it’s not liberal enough.”
From a political point of view, this means that repeal is a minority position. But it also means that opposing ObamaCare from the right is a minority position. While attacking ‘ObamaCare’ in the abstract might still work, the success of that strategy depends on people not understanding the basis of the criticism.
This is a problem for the Republicans because the trend lines are good, more and more people are getting coverage, and they’ve put all their eggs in the ‘criticize ObamaCare’ basket. They don’t plan on doing anything popular in Congress this year. They don’t have a popular agenda to push to the public.
The relentless symbolic efforts to repeal ObamaCare and all the negative advertising are having an effect, but that only makes me wonder how the law would be polling in the absence of those attacks. After all, opposition to the law has almost become a cultural or tribal thing is some parts of the country.
In any case, if you want to have an idea about how the White House feels about this CNN poll, they’ve been making sure every journalist in town sees it. That might seem odd looking at the graphic, but only if you don’t know anything about polls.
It also means that opposing Obamacare from the left is in an even worse minority position. With only 12% favoring a more progressive universal system, dreams of truly universal healthcare not a sham that will impoverish most sick people, is dead.
Why is cynicism from the left so common and overwhelming? It so gets in the way of the possibility of progress.
My read is that that 12% plus the people who support the law might all be open to the addition of a public option. In fact, when one looks at the politics, adding a public option should be easy once we control both houses and the presidency. What could still get in the way are big monied interest pulling strings, and that’s why we need to keep the drums pounding. Let’s partner in that endeavor and maybe we can get Hillary elected with the kind of majorities that make the public option possible in the short term. Longer term, I think it’s inevitable. Demographics favor it.
The last 34 years of history? Actually, I could say the last 50 years, my entire adult life.
Also, saying you support the ACA can mean as many different things as saying you oppose it. How many of those 39% support it precisely as it is? If I was polled I would say I support it, but only in that I favor doing something about health insurance rather than nothing. Of course I really wanted the public option.
Then you would be with me and the rest of the 12% saying it’s not liberal enough.
It was Patrick Henry who said “Give me purity or give me death!”, right?
You don’t read this blog much, do you?
As is well-know, nominating Hillary, let alone electing her, would spell the end of the little bits of the Republic that are left and still worth saving after Obama.
There is a difference between opposing the law because it doesn’t meet all of your criteria and supporting it even though you would like to see it improved. I would love to see single-payer, and fully expect us to get there. That doesn’t mean I oppose the ACA. I am a strong proponent of it. At the same time, I will work to get it to evolve into what I want to see eventually.
Well that’s the whole point. Wilderness’s reasoning is fallacious. The fact that 12% OPPOSE the ACA because it’s not liberal enough is by no means equivalent to saying that only 12% want to see it made more liberal, because plenty of people that SUPPORT it also think it’s not liberal enough. Just how many, is something not revealed by this survey. I would suspect, though, that a lot more people SUPPORT the ACA DESPITE its not being liberal enough, than OPPOSE it for that reason. basically, it’s the measure of incrementalists vs purists.
And how many support it while thinking it is too liberal? They don’t tell use that either. So what we know is that 51% oppose for different reasons and 49% support. I wouldn’t call that a ringing endorsement of single payer, which BTW I support!
Don’t fall into the trap of thinking because you think something is wonderful that the majority thinks the same. That’s how Mitt Romney was surprised on election night.
I don’t have the numbers, but I already explained why I think that a lot of folks who don’t see the ACA as the greatest thing since sliced bread, do support it. Anyway, no use arguing, somebody needs to poll that question.
Agreed.
BooMan, you might want to check out the last 2 comments on the “pardon the interruption” thread. Possible problem with the website?
I’m still stunned at the number of people who haven’t followed the ACA battle at all. I ran into two of them last week and it’s pretty jarring. It seems that many who work in professional service areas have learned to stay off any political topic when talking with clients to the point that they barricade themselves behind a wall of sheer ignorance.
The cynicism from the left is disheartning, but only insofar as it prevents voting by the cynics. The people I know of took 2010 as a real wakeup call.
I’m sure Bernie Sanders is opposed to the current incarnation of the ACA … I’m also sure he’s not staying home next election, and he’s not voting Republican.
Only if you don’t know anything about polls, eh?
Well…you’re right, but probably for the wrong reasons.
Here is what I know about “polls.” They are almost all skewed in the direction of company that runs them. CNN? The Centrist News Network? It’s going to come up with centrist results. Duh. How? Any way it can do so, from skewed polling lists right down to to outright numbers fiddling if necessary.
The “White House” is fixed in terms of its centricity. The PermaGov (The Deep State, and the newest meme would have it.) does everything in its power to make sure that no one…not from the right, not from the left, not from any other possible direction or any other coalition of directions…ascends to the presidency who is not dead center in line with its directives. No matter what the political blah blah blah blah blah that got them elected, there hasn’t been a president since Nixon who dared to cross the Deep State. Nixon and JFK. Look what happened to them. And maybe Clinton too, w/healthcare.
Money talks and nobody walks.
Jaywalking against the Deep State lights is punishable by death or at the very least political ruin.
And they’re complicated!!!
Bet on it.
Plus…there’s a Deep State cop on every political corner.
Bet on that as well.
Obama’s mama didn’t raise no fools. He’s gonna retire to a multi-millionaire’s life and whan all’s been said and done you can shove your healthcare woes up yer bazongas!!!
He’s made his bet.
Now it’s just time to wait until he’s free again.
Watch.
AG
Interesting, my 80 year old hard Right friend at work always calls it “Communist News Network”.
Different jokes for different folks, I guess.
AG
I wonder if that poll under-estimates those who oppose the healthcare law from the left. I would be someone who could be said to oppose the law from the left; I think it’s a Rube Goldberg device and the best that can be said for it is it’s an improvement over what we had before, and may be about as well as we can do for the moment given political reality. But if someone polled me, I wouldn’t hesitate to say I supported the law. I wouldn’t want to give anyone the wrong impression.
Exactly. See my reply to japa21 above.
This has ALWAYS been true, from the very beginning. Every single poll which broke out left, right, and center has this.
Since 2011, at least.
You just noticed this now? Have you been asleep?
March 23, 2011:
All of the polls, every single one, every single one, from the beginning, have shown the same thing. 40% oppose the bill from the right, 40% support the bill, 20% think it doesn’t go far enough.
Why haven’t you clueless dweebs noticed this? 3 years, same thing, and it’s big news today?