Since FDR was inaugurated in 1933, West Virginia has only elected two Republicans as governor, Cecil Underwood and Arch Moore Jr. Both men served nonconsecutive terms, with Underwood’s coming a staggering forty years apart (1957-1961 and 1997-2001). Only Moore was ever re-elected (in 1972). Combined, they served for twenty years, with Democrats serving the other sixty-one.
Jay Rockefeller’s seat in the Senate has been in Democratic hands for all but eight years since FDR’s 1933 inauguration and was last held by a Republican in 1958, when John D. Hoblitzell, Jr. was appointed as a temporary replacement for Sen. Matthew Neely.
Joe Manchin’s seat in the Senate was held by Robert Byrd for 51 years. Republican Henry Hatfield lost the seat in 1934, and the GOP has only controlled it briefly (November 7, 1956 –
January 3, 1959) since that time.
What this says is that West Virginian’s are simply not in the habit of electing Republicans to state-wide office, especially for high-profile races.
Yes, the state has changed over the last two decades, and it is remarkably hostile to our multiracial president. But, the same day that Obama was elected president, Joe Manchin was reelected as governor with 70% of the vote. Manchin was then elected to serve in the Senate twice, the second time earning over 60% of the vote on a ballot he shared with Obama. West Virginians also elected Democrat Earl Ray Tomblin to replace Manchin as governor that same election day.
I don’t know how much all this history figures, if at all, in Nate Silver’s calculations, but putting 90% odds on the Republicans winning Rockefeller’s seat in November seems quite a bit too bullish for the GOP. They simply have no record of sending their own Republicans to Washington.