Jonathan Cohn notes that it now looks like about 6.7 million people will ultimately sign up for ObamaCare by the cutoff, which is officially tomorrow, but in reality April 15th.
Even accounting for the fact that some of these people won’t actually pay their premiums, these figures would seem to undermine—or at least weaken—the argument that Obamacare is a catastrophic failure. Republicans and many of their allies obviously think otherwise. They are doing what they almost always do when data confounds their previously held beliefs. They are challenging the statistics—in particular, by suggesting that most of the people getting insurance already had coverage. Some, like Senator John Barrasso of Wyoming, say the administration is “cooking the books.” Others, like Senator Ted Cruz, say that the number of people without insurance is actually rising.
Sorry, but that’s nonsense.
Over the weekend, the White House press office proudly blasted out this blog post showing the long lines that had formed all over the country of people seeking ObamaCare. As an aside, the White House web site is brazenly sticking it to the Republicans by displaying a countdown clock that says that there are still 16 days to sign up.
The best estimates are that the law is roughly where it was expected to be, both in terms of how many people signed up and in how much it has so far reduced the ranks of the uninsured (about a 23% reduction).
Obviously, it would be over-performing if the website had functioned properly from the outset and, especially, if the Medicaid expansion hadn’t been undermined by the Supreme Court and ideologically-mad Republican governors and legislatures.