Al Hunt talked to some (mostly unspecified) “political wise men” and came up with the following odds on the 2016 Republican nominee for president:
Jeb Bush 4:1
Scott Walker 6:1
Mike Huckabee 7:1
Rand Paul 8:1
Chris Christie 10:1
Marco Rubio 10:1
Ted Cruz 12:1
Paul Ryan 15:1
Rick Perry 20:1
Bobby Jindal 30:1
Dark Horse (including Santorum) 40:1
It’s an enlightening exercise to try to think of this in gambling terms. Which of those bets would you be willing to make?
These odds ignore history a little bit, not that that is necessarily a mistake. If you rely on history, however, it argues for much better odds for Paul Ryan and Rick Santorum. The GOP tends to nominate old VP’s and VP candidates (Nixon, Dole, Poppy) or former runner-ups (Poppy, Dole, McCain, Romney).
I understand Hunt’s reason for dropping Ryan down is that he doesn’t think he will run. If he does run, his odds would have to be higher.
As the 2012 runner-up, Santorum has the right to think it’s his turn. To see himself put in the Dark Horse category must be galling. Heh.
I’ve been worried about Ted Cruz for a long time and I still am. Crazy as he is, he also has wingnut charisma in a huge, huge way. If he doesn’t win it, I think he’s more than willing to splinter off and take the GOP base with him. At the very least, I think he’ll have a big role in choosing the next nominee. This is a very dangerous demagogue.
I hope he has his long-form Canadian birth certificate handy.
Cruz still has CUBAN citizenship through his father, that he hasn’t renounced yet.
If it gets into a knife fight with other GOPers, I think Cruz will be in a world of hurt.
Cuban FREEDOM FIGHTER citizenship, that’s as good as a Murkin.
The crazy base is like a bunch of spoiled teenagers who constantly threaten to run away from home but know they couldn’t survive a day without Mommy and Daddy to take care of things for them. They’ll never leave.
Ted Cruz has similar charisma to McCarthy, and to the same kind of people.
He is very popular with the people is he is very popular with. Other people, not so much. I think the majority of vboters consider him a fucking maniac.
you’re joking, right? Jeb Bush, I’ll grant you has an outside chance. The rest of these Losers? Forget it.
Cruz won’t even be able to win in Texas in 2016.
Huckabee hell the NAME alone will prevent his winning.
Walker was saved by the bell in recall in WI. No way.
Rand Paul? A REAL dark horse with a REALLY open mouth.
Rubio is used goods. Too pro-immigration. Too dark, also
Paul Ryan is wounded and spilling blood outside the Republican Party, a party of 25% of the electorate.
Rick Perry is under investigation. Even if it IS strictly political, he is not the brightest light bulb in the chandelier, either. Another very wide open mouth.
Bobby Jindal, Hell, ROMNEY has a better chance than this fool.
Santorum can’t even get elected in PA. Didn’t win anything but MS,AL (yeah yeah yeah, but a win two weeks late doesn’t count AND he lost to Romney in the delegate count of MS and AL anyway)
Dark Horse: It’s in here people. God only knows who, but it’s in here.
You’re right. My first reaction to the list was, well, maybe, but this far out it’s all just CW, nothing else.
My second reaction was, so that’s the best they’ve got? what a pathetic bunch.
Which also raises the Hillary question. I think a lot of other people could trounce those losers.
Hillary scares me not so much in herself, as because she is a key component of a power structure from an era that should be relegated to the trashcan of history.
Is Dark Horse related to Bad Horse?
Anyway, I’d bet a small sum on another establishment type seemingly coming out of nowhere (but who will seem inevitable in hindsight) a la W.
Those odds add up to 114%, so I’d cheerfully bet against all of them as a group.
Relatively speaking, I think Paul is low because of the fanatics he’ll inherit from his father and the friendly reception the press has given him. Rubio is too high because he came off as such a joke. I also think he’s underestimating the chance of a less nutty governor like Kasich or Martinez, barring inside info he may have that they’re not planning to run.
I get the odds are 100.44%, so it’s pretty realistic from that standpoint.
Maybe you are thinking of 1:10 odds as 10%, but 1:10 odds means that there is one chance of winning against 10 chances of losing, so the probability is 9.09%.
I think Ryan runs – he has people to set up and run the campaign organization, and what better way to fundraise than to hold the gavel at Ways and Means?
When it comes to predictability it’s hard to beat the GOP in presidential nominees – the only surprise over the last 40 years from 3 years out was Dubya, and then only slightly. You might throw in McCain ’08, but in both instances there was no heir-apparent, and McCain was the last runner-up from ’00. In this case I’d bet the farm on Ryan.
Ryan’s big problem is the Ryan budgets. If the public actually paid attention to them it would threaten the existence of the Republican party. I wonder if Ryan realizes this and his apparent lack of interest reflects a calculated approach to getting a heinous set of deforms implemented semi-stealthily. He’s gotten things lined up so that if the Republicans ever get the trifecta, they’re going to pass the Ryan budgets.
the realization that his budgets are toxic requires a level of self-awareness one rarely finds in politicians, much less Rand-y Republicans.
#1 Scott Walker Not a Southerner. Mean Bastard (a plus for the GOP). Won twice in the MidWest.
#2 Kasich Somehow got Union endorsements. Proves he can flim-flam working class voters and not just wing nuts. Conventional wisdom is that the R’s need Ohio to win.
Ditto on Walker, especially with his record of union-bashing, and his trashing of public employees.
Crab-bucket politics — if I can’t have collective bargaining, you don’t get it either; if I have no pension, you can’t have one; if my job, or my life sucks, your job, your life has to suck too — is the way forward for the GOP.
It permits the functional equivalent of racism and sexism and every other -ism that appeals to the worst in people, without actually looking like it.
And a political party predicated on appealing to the worst in people begins every cycle half-a-lap ahead.
Kasich is the stealth GOP guy that nobody seems to be watching.
Scottie won’t be able to overcome his appearance that screams, “I’m stupid.” That perception enhanced by his failure to graduate from college.
Agree on Kasich.
Walker, hey, stupid is, again, a plus for the GOP.
I actually don’t rule out Romney completely. The Rs are delusional enough to believe that the country might be sorry they didn’t elect him (at least until O’s poll numbers go up again).
Agree on Romney — he likes his chances against Hillary in an all senior citizen contest.
HHH, Mondale, Gore. McGovern (1968 runner-up), Hillary (2008 runner-up and on the horizon because Democrats are no wiser and no smarter than Republicans). And we also had to endure the Muskie and Lieberman quests for the WH. How is this different from the GOP?
Well, I guess Democrats are no different from Republicans in that regard. Except for, you know, the last three Democratic Presidents.
Carter got the deregulation thing going. (Worse was interjecting religion directly into politics.)
Clinton — oh, my — such a long list of accomplishments on the GOP wish list. NAFTA, capital gains tax reduction, telecom dereg, welfare “reform,” Gramm-Leach-Bliley, commodity futures modernization (the last two figured in the Great Recession), etc.
Obama — “kill list,” drone strikes, expanding charter schools and rating teachers on student testing, NSA spying, covert regime change funding and activities. But he sold “austerity” effectively enough to allow the 1% to get richer and faster than they have in the prior seventy years.
More a difference in style than substance.
Really surprised at the low numbers for Ryan and the Savonarola of Pennsyltucky.
And the absence of the midwestern governors is also odd.
Ryan has poor campaign skills. Not even as good as Gore and Kerry who for all their years of experience were never all that good.
LOL at the mastery of understatement. Gore and Kerry were right down there with Dukakis as the worst Democratic candidates i can remember.
Dukakis (what we’re Democrats thinking?) was definitely the worst. Kerry and Mondale were only slightly better. Carter and Gore were good enough to win once but not charismatic political campaigners. Not that Republicans have done much better — Ford (snicker, snicker), GHWB was down in the Kerry/Mondale range only dumber, Dole was old with a mean persona, McCain in the Carter/Gore range but older and dumber, and Romney is all of the above depending on the phase of the moon.
(Democrats do seem blind to the fact that Hillary (who I think is literally tone-deaf) has at best the campaign chops of Kerry/Mondale and possibly not even that good.)
Well, everyone expects Santorum to run.
Down to the floor, however, not up to the White House.
Paul Ryan looks like a great bet. If someone actually gives me 15:1, I might actually make it.
Santorum is the Dark Man on Dog.
Bob Gates.
You’ll not get a no-elective office dark horse like Gates in the present GOP, there’s too many domestic litmus-test issues today.
Eisenhower was able to go from SHAEF to White House, but that was a different, Cold-War-orineted world, and a fo-po/defense rainmaker could run on that, and more or less skate on social issues.
But not today.
Ryan’s odds should be a little better than 15:1. He’s behind Rubio? Really?
From that list, I would say the nomination is Jeb’s if he really wants it, but that’s a big if. I wonder how much of his supposed interest is really pressure from those around him to live up to the family name and “You’re our best hope.”
As far as the rest of them, I wouldn’t bet a nickle either way. And I’d say even money the Repubs will find somebody even crazier to nominate.
That rating for Jeb might be what the GOP establishment wants to believe, but I have real doubts that he’ll even run. If he does, I think he’s too intermittently sane for the base.
Ted Cruz 6:1
Rick Santorum 8:1
Paul Ryan 10:1
John Kasich 12:1
Scott Walker 12:1
Rand Paul 15:1
Jeb Bush 20:1
Chris Christie 40:1
Mike Huckabee 50:1
Also Rans 100:1 (Marco Rubio, Rick Perry, Bobby Jindal)
I think 2016 is the year when the teabaggers finally get to pick their boy for the big dance – and the result is one hell of an ass-whupping.
Dark Horse (including Santorum) 40:1
I meant to delete that last line in my comment, so please do ignore it.
Bush. He’s got the look and he’s got solid centrist support. The media will nonperson the rest of the pack and sell him as the only one who can win against Clinton. Then whichever way the fix is set will determine the winner. My guess…if Clinton actually runs, of course…is Bush by several percentage points. Neither one is going to seriously upset many PermaGov/PermaWar applecarts, and with Bush they have a fairly sure 8 years. W/Clinton? Maybe not so sure. She looks very tired.
Plus…if Bush can beat Clinton he can easily beat any other Demrat.
Watch.
AG
I’m guessing Mike Pence is somewhere in the dark horse category and I certainly hope so. He’s currently out there touching base with all the GOP bigwigs while Indiana continues to linger in Republican hell.
One more wrinkle to the Rand Paul desire to run.
The state legislature of Kentucky lead by Greg Stumbo, has refused to pass a law allowing the leader of the paulbots V1.2, to run for two offices on the same ballot.
Currently state law mandates each candidate only run for one office for each elections.
Too bad fer the paulbots, Rand will have to make up his mind which office he really wants.
probable easy re-election to being a mostly ineffective senator or Running and getting ratf*cked by GOP dirty tricksters for the party’s power elite.