Ramesh Ponnuru is correct that Rand Paul would be an attractive running mate in the sense that his constituency might otherwise bolt for the Libertarian candidate or just stay home, while other running mates would have only marginal impacts on turnout.
There are downsides to consider beyond Paul’s reputation with supporters of Israel, however. Running mates are expected to put away whatever differences they may have with the presidential candidate. Remember what happened to Joe Lieberman’s support for school vouchers the moment he joined Al Gore’s ticket?
It’s a lot easier to flip-flop on school vouchers than on what to do about Iran’s nuclear program or whether to intervene in Syria or what we should do with our drone program. Rand Paul is simply at odds with the majority of the Republican Party on issues of foreign policy, national defense, and the intelligence community.
He also brings unique vulnerabilities. He’s a serial plagiarist, for example, which you probably can’t say about Sen. John Thune or Gov. Mike Pence. He’s the only senator I know of who hired an openly pro-confederacy “Southern Avenger” to work on his staff. He’s openly doubted the legality of the 1964 Civil Rights Act. So, it’s true that he would be able to bring a lot of voters into the GOP tent, but he’d also push a lot of people out of the tent.
I don’t know exactly how widespread it would be, but there are probably some hawkish Republicans who would consider it so irresponsible to put Paul on the ticket that they would flip over to the Democrats. This happened to a certain degree with Sarah Palin, and it also happened in 1972 when “strong” defense-minded Democrats bolted to the GOP and took on the moniker “neo-conservatives.” I think Bill Kristol would feel more at home in Hillary Clinton’s party than Rand Paul’s. Would he stay put if Paul was merely the running mate? Considering how his bread is buttered, he probably would, but others might not be so forgiving about putting a dove a heartbeat away from the Oval Office.
Picking Paul as a running mate would definitely highlight a split within the GOP that they will probably be seeking to paper over after a bruising primary season. It’s also unclear to me if his constituency is strong enough to flip any states from blue to red. He’d probably be more effective at keeping some states (I’m thinking of Montana) that Clinton won at least once from returning to the Democratic fold. But that really does the GOP no good. Unless Paulites can help the Republican nominee carry Pennsylvania or Michigan or Iowa or Ohio, they aren’t of any use.
So, I think Ponnuru has a kernel of an idea, but I don’t think he’s really thought it through. What he ought to be thinking about is how to hold down Hillary Clinton’s numbers in suburban Philadelphia, and Rand Paul won’t be part of the answer to that.
