European Nations Need to Increase Defense Spending
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Yep, Ukraine a pivot to increase Europe’s defense spending due to our declaration Russia is an adversary, not a partner for us. Iran may soon lose the label “terrorist” state, and offers more rewards for US energy sector in coming decades.
CSIS Conference: “A Transatlantic Pivot to Asia,” featuring H.E. Frans Timmermans, FM of the Netherlands plus (VIDEO)
At the conference there was listed a speaker named Hans Binnendijk, I had to google his name and found these reports. Hans Binnendijk, Theodore Roosevelt Chair in National Security Policy and Director of the Center for Technology and National Security Policy [until July 2012]. A founding member of RUSI – A Study of Possible Russian Military Strategies Against Ukraine.
(WorldSecurityNetwork in 2008) Dr. Hans Binnendijk: Where will Russia go.
World Security Network Foundation C/O Joseph Schmitz in Bethesda, Maryland (MD)
Rethinking U.S. Security Strategy Op-ed by Hans Binnendijk
(NY Times) – To set the stage for a new strategy, the National Intelligence Council recently published “Global Trends 2030,” which envisions a world of diffused power shifting increasingly to the East and South; empowerment of new actors, some of whom will have access to disruptive technologies; and a neo-Malthusian mix of demographic trends and greater resource requirements that could make the world more dangerous. For the first time in the history of these reports, it includes the future U.S. strategic posture as a potential global game changer.
A new strategy should not be budget-driven, but it will be budget-influenced. Savings from the termination of two wars are not being reinvested in the military; they will be a peace dividend. Sequestration may cut significantly below that peace dividend.
In short, the United States faces a more dangerous world with fewer national security resources. The new U.S. strategy will either need to retrench and absorb greater risk or develop more robust global partnerships to pick up the slack.
Several prominent thinkers are proposing a strategy called offshore balancing, which involves a degree of retrenchment. It would exert U.S. influence through regional powers and withdraw most U.S. ground forces from Europe and the Middle East. Critics of offshore balancing argue that it would result in U.S. disengagement and possible collapse of U.S. alliances.
An alternative approach more likely to capture the views of Kerry and Hagel is forward-partnering. Developed at the National Defense University, the approach would continue to stress U.S. forward-force deployments but with a new purpose: to enable America’s global partners to operate together with U.S. forces and to encourage partners to take the lead in their own neighborhoods.
This fits with the flow of previous strategies: During the Cold War the United States “contained” enemies to protect partners; during the Clinton administration the U.S. “enlarged” the number of democratic partners, and now the U.S. would “enable” partners to help us maintain global stability.
America’s partners in this strategy would be its traditional European and Asian allies, plus emerging democracies like Brazil, India and Indonesia. Regional organizations such as the African Union, the Arab League and the Gulf Cooperation Council would form natural partnerships for regional operations.
DNI Publication ‘Global Trends 2030’
Remember the RAND Corporation – Robert McNamara – Vietnam War and casualties – Daniel Ellsberg and the Pentagon Papers. Continued below the fold …
Sounds like the 50s and 60s, US foreign policy based on the McNamara’s RAND Corporation … please fill-out the blank for the next foreign intervention: UKRAINE.
Thank you, we’ll increase defense spending all across Europe and convert the people of the nations from Venus to Mars-like aliens.
National Intelligence Council recently published “Global Trends 2030”
The National Intelligence Council’s (NIC) Global Trends Report engages expertise from outside government on factors of such as globalization, demography and the environment, producing a forward-looking document to aid policymakers in their long term planning on key issues of worldwide importance.
Since the first report was released in 1997, the audience for each Global Trends report has expanded, generating more interest and reaching a broader audience that the one that preceded it. A new Global Trends report is published every four years following the U.S. presidential election.
Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds
Global Trends 2030 is intended to stimulate thinking about the rapid and vast geopolitical changes characterizing the world today and possible global trajectories over the next 15 years. As with the NIC’s previous Global Trends reports, we do not seek to predict the future–which would be an impossible feat–but instead provide a framework for thinking about possible futures and their implications.
In-depth research, detailed modeling and a variety of analytical tools drawn from public, private and academic sources were employed in the production of Global Trends 2030. NIC leadership engaged with experts in nearly 20 countries–from think tanks, banks, government offices and business groups–to solicit reviews of the report.
