Fall of Homs, Juan Cole Throws the Towel

.
Previously, I have been at loggerheads with Professor Cole on realities on the ground in the Middle East. On Syria, a civil war that never should have happened. One unfortunate fact, the fall of the Assad regime in Syria was written in the neocon playbook. A few minutes before 00:00 hours, President Obama called off the definite and total destruction of Syria and its people. What a loss of life for nothing, making the Middle East a more dangerous place. The Syrian people who sought refuge in neighboring states Lebanon, Jordan, Turkey and Kurdish Iraq have no home to which they can return. Total, total destruction. A immense failure of the United Nations and the powers supporting the rebels and jihadists: France, Britain, Germany, USA, Turkey and the GCC states. Iraq, Iran and Syria too cannot escape the evidence of warcrimes and crimes against humanity. The blow-back will be felt in Western-Europe and the ME states as thousands of jihadists return home. A pity paradise wasn’t to be for these criminals. Israel and Russia enough on their plate on border issues. I can imagine Syria’s partnersip with the EU is off the table and will be exchanged for the Central-Asian economic pact. What are the chances Turkey and Erdogan will also look eastward. A meeting on D-Day for good-old times sake.

Is Fall of Homs a turning point in Regime’s Quest to Retake Syria?

(Informed Comment) – The Governor of Homs Province, Talal al-Barazi said that 80 percent of the rebel fighters in that city have now been evacuated. It is expected that the rest will leave on Thursday.

Around a thousand fighters had been holed up in the old city of Homs and have now left, with 300 or so persons staying behind.

The regime’s retaking of Homs is not just an ordinary to and fro in a brutal, grinding civil war. It is a hands-down strategic victory for the ruling Baath regime of Bashar al-Assad. Homs is an industrial city of some 700,000 inhabitants, the third largest in Syria (a country of 22 million). It has a Sunni majority but a very large Christian community (at one point, at least, they were 1/3 of the inhabitants), along with minorities like Alawis. But neither size nor make-up explain its importance. Geography does.

« click Peaceful protests of March 2011 evolved into a civil war with sectarian overtones

Damascus in the southwest of Syria needs resupply of staples, ammunition and weaponry. Some of that is brought in by air. More is brought overland by trucks from the port of Latakia in the northwest on the Mediterranean. The trucking route from Latakia to Damascus goes through . . . Homs.

But as I told Syrian oppositionists in 2012, it is possible that Bashar al-Assad will achieve something similar to what happened in Algeria, where the army won a civil war with the Muslim fundamentalists. The opposition’s decision to militarize was a serious error.

…
In any case, no territory held by the rebels in the north or the far south of the country can cause Damascus to fall. Keeping Homs and taking the territory between it and the capital, putting the latter under siege, could have caused it to fall eventually. That plan has decisively failed.

Continued below the fold …

Israeli Gen. Charges Syria Chem Weapons Use: Is Israel Allying with Sunnis to overthrow Alawites, cut off Iran?

Apr. 24, 2013 – The official stance of Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu of Israel toward the Syrian civil war has been one of announced “neutrality.” Netanyahu’s position contrasts with that of his political ally, Avigdor Lieberman, an East Bloc Neoconservative who has been arguing for supporting the rebels. On his trip to the UK last week, Netanyahu for the first time admitted the possibility that Israel might arm some of the rebels.

Israel’s primary concerns in Syria are not Syria but Iran and Hizbullah in Lebanon. Israel fears that Syria will find a way to transfer chemical weapons to Hizbullah in Lebanon. Israeli military leaders typically attempt to prevent developments that might limit their freedom of action. a Hizbullah armed with chemicals might deter Israeli military action against the Shiite party-militia.

Meanwhile, Hizbullah has openly joined Syrian government troops in the campaign to take Qusair near Homs away from the rebels. Aljazeera English reports:

Even as Israel may be turning against the Damascus regime of President Bashar al-Assad, a fundamentalist Sunni preacher in Sidon [Sheikh Ahmad al-Assir] has called on Lebanese Sunnis to fight a holy war against the Baath regime in Syria. Young Sunni men were said to be signing up, even as many Lebanese Shiites continue to support Bashar al-Assad.

Hizbullah is the most effective Arab fighting force still hostile to Israel. It is allied with Iran, which the Israeli leadership says is their country’s chief enemy.

How Israel Manipulates US Policy in the Middle East