This is your country. This is your country ignoring climate change. It’s not a pretty picture.
As of this morning there are nine (9) wildfires burning in and around San Diego. With the current drought c0nditions and high temperatures expected this summer across the Western United States, this is only the beginning of what may become one of the worst wildfire seasons in our history. Then again, one could say that almost every year. From Scientific American’s article today, “Wildfires Come Hard and Fast to Southern California”:
SAN DIEGO—Parts of San Diego County resembled an inferno yesterday as nine fires roared along the edges of suburbs and through the countryside. In the afternoon, thick, black smoke spiraled into the air above San Marcos, 40 miles northeast of San Diego International Airport, while firefighters battled a spate of new flare-ups in the chaparral-covered hillsides below.
The fires have forced tens of thousands to evacuate, including personnel from the shuttered San Onofre nuclear power plant and Marine Corps Base Camp Pendleton.
I imagine that when the Pentagon commissioned their study regarding the threat climate change poses to our national security, they didn’t go to great lengths to examine the possibility that military bases and nuclear power plants would be endangered by wildfires this month. I mean who could have anticipated ….
California is in the grip of a historic drought with all regions of the state classified as either severe, extreme or exceptional by the U.S. Drought Monitor. With snowpack and reservoir levels perilously low and higher temperatures ahead, many worry that the recent burns may be just a taste of what the summer has in store.
“It’s frightening,” said Peter Meade, 57, looking out the window of his Carlsbad home at a wall of gray smoke blanketing the skyline near the Pacific Ocean. The weather this spring has been ripe for fires, with hot, dry weather, he said. That’s atypical for the coastal region, where this time of year is usually dubbed “May gray” for its overcast skies.
Temperatures aren’t the only thing to arrive ahead of schedule this year. Santa Ana winds from the west—sometimes called “devil winds” for their heat and unpredictability—were responsible for much of the fires’ spread earlier this week. To see such winds in mid-May is highly unusual, said San Diego Board of Supervisors Chairwoman Diane Jacob, speaking alongside Gore yesterday.
“I’ve lived [in San Diego County] my entire life, and I’ve never experienced the kinds of winds we’re having right now in May,” she said.
Actually, there have been a bunch of scientists running around with their hair on fire (so to speak) warning of the threat drought and wildfires pose to our country. Just last year, climate researchers published a study that predicts wildfires in parts of the western United States will likely double by the year 2050.
The researchers behind [the] study are predicting more smoke pollution — even in communities far from the forest’s edge — as more fires burn because of rising temperatures.
The guilty party behind the new forest fire patterns is climate change, the researchers said. Higher average temperatures will result in more wildfires by 2050, especially in August, they found. […]
Overall, the typical four-month fire season will gain three weeks by 2050, the researchers report. And the probability of large fires could double or even triple. The findings were published in the October issue of the journal Atmospheric Environment.
The guilty party behind the new forest fire patterns is climate change, the researchers said. Higher average temperatures will result in more wildfires by 2050, especially in August, they found.
The Eastern Rocky Mountains and Great Plains regions will see their area burned during August nearly double. Also in August, the Rocky Mountain forest acreage torched by fire will quadruple, and the Pacific Northwest will increase by 65 percent, the study suggests.
Frankly, I expect, like many predictions made by climate scientists, based on current computer models and research, that they are erring on the side of being too conservative. Yet, we continue to have political stalemate, or maybe I should call it stagnation, on addressing the issue of climate change. Despite the growing wealth of evidence that the planet’s oceans and atmosphere are warming dramatically, and despite the continuing signs that the consequences from such warming predicted by climate scientists (massive precipitation events, floods, droughts, ocean acidification, species extinction,stronger and more deadly storms, and sea level rise to name but a few), our politicians persist in either denying climate change, or claiming it has nothing to to with human activity. Even the ones who acknowledge the reality of climate change rarely make it a priority in their public speeches. Of course, they have millions of reasons to ignore this threat, thanks to billionaires like the Koch Brothers.
To kick off the New Year, Koch Industries published on January 1, 2010, a piece titled “Blowing Smoke” in its Discovery Newsletter. “We are often told our planet will be devastated unless we immediately make drastic reductions in man-made greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions,” the piece contends. Then it levels the bogus charge: ” Rather than encouraging open and honest scientific enquiry and debate about the issue, climate extremists are trying to shout down any and all dissenters.”
Koch Industries goes well beyond its Web site to advance the views and interests of its owners. According to OpenSecrets.org, Koch Industries dramatically increased its lobbying in the decade leading to the 2008 election, from $200,000 in 1998 to over $20 million in 2008, making it the 8th largest spender on lobbying in the country. In 2009, it contributed another $12.5 million, with major legislative targets including the energy and climate change legislation before the Congress — and legislators who support the Koch brothers’ views on the legislation. To see how the Koch brothers are supporting specific members of Congress, see Follow the Oil Money’s page on Koch Industries’ campaign contributions.
At the same time, the Koch brothers have undermined climate science and policy through their foundations, the Charles G. Koch Charitable Foundation, the David H. Koch Charitable Foundation and the Claude R. Lambe Charitable Foundation. According to the report Axis of Ideology: Conservative Foundations and Public Policy, from the National Committee for Responsive Philanthropy (Executive Summary here [PDF] ), “most of their contributions go to support organizations and groups advancing libertarian theory, privatization, entrepreneurship and free enterprise.” As the Center for Public Integrity said in its 2004 brief, Koch’s Low Profile Belies Political Power: Private Oil Company Does Both Business and Politics With the Shades Drawn: “Although it is both a top campaign contributor and spends millions on direct lobbying, Koch’s chief political influence tool is a web of interconnected, right-wing think tanks and advocacy groups funded by foundations controlled and supported by the two Koch brothers.”
Of course, that is from 2010. Recent disclosures reveal that the Koch Brothers and their foundations spent at least $1.7 Billion on lobbying efforts and for political campaigns in 2012 alone. And of course, our media, particularly our televised media continues to treat the issue of climate change as a political controversy rather than a threat to our civilization. When they cover it at all that is.
Media Figures And Republicans Dominated Sunday Show Coverage Of Climate Change. On the rare occasions when Sunday shows focused on climate change, they were still unlikely to talk to scientists. Of those guests who did appear on the Sunday shows to talk about global warming, 43 percent were media figures and another 29 percent were politicians. Among the politicians who came onto the Sunday shows to inform the public about climate change, three-quarters of them were Republican.
How inconvenient for the reality-based community. And deliberate, in my opinion.
Meanwhile, that awful federal government is doing its best to warn people of the danger of wildfires this year.
May
Above normal fire potential will be over much of California, southern Arizona, and southwestern New Mexico. Must (sic) of southern Alaska will have above normal
fire potential. […]June
Above normal fire potential will expand to include northern California, Nevada, and much
of Oregon. Most of Alaska will continue to see above normal significant fire potential.July through August
Above normal fire potential will remain in most of California, northern Nevada, and central Oregon. Above normal fire potential will expand into eastern Oregon,
southwestern Idaho, and the Great Lakes region.
Alas, that same government will be committing fewer resources to fight those fires, thanks to the sequester, our grand budget bargain, that has been far from a bargain for most Americans.
Part of the U.S. Department of Agriculture, the U.S. Forest Service (USFS) fights fires within the 155 national forests and 20 national grasslands it administers — some 193 million acres. In 2009, the USFS employed nearly 35,000 people, including 10,050 firefighters.
By 2013, budget cuts and the budget sequester led to Forest Service Chief Tom Tidwell announcing that the agency would be hiring 500 fewer firefighters and 50 fewer engine crews for the fire season. The agency has been struggling with budget issues the past few years as well because of longer fire seasons, more wildfires and acres burned, and decreased federal funding for fire suppression. As fire spending passed $1 billion for the year in early August, the Forest Service announced it was nearly out of money and needed to divert $600 million from other parts of its budget to fund suppression activities. Western state lawmakers have been working with the USFS to gain more funding from Congress and the Office of Budget and Management for future fire seasons, to little effect or certainty.
Ain’t that just grand?
And then there is Darryl Issa. Whilst he is witch hunting, comfortably from afar, his constituents in Escondido are losing their homes, livelihood & what used to be a beautiful part of California.
And what do you wanna bet they re-elect him.
They will, without a doubt, re elect him. I happen to believe that a sustained, door to door campaign would kick him to the curb (where he would steal a car on his way out of town). But we don’t get that type of Democratic candidate out here.
::SIGH::
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He’s got a [challenger https:/thecoastnews.com/2013/11/encinitas-democrat-looks-to-become-next-challenger-to-issa] but it’s a tough area for a Dem. Remember when Obama flew into Orange County and went right into the heart of the Balboa Bay Club, now that was amazing! BBC is next door to John Wayne’s old house and across bay from Roy Rogers’.
It’s now a slightly Dem majority district (I live in it), but the Dems here don’t bother to vote.
If we could get the Dem turnout up by 4% over 2012 (yeah, a presidential year) we can get the bastard. So 2016 is a possibility with a huge turnout effort.
But yeah, he’ll win again this time. He’s got Tom Metzger country in the inland part of the district, and they vote in every election without fail. All of ’em.
Look on the plus side:
Maybe all of that smoke over this summer will lower the Earth’s temperature a micro-degree!
There’s an interesting report that first arose in Rolling Stone that some are theorizing that the mega wildfires we’re having are dumping soot and ash on the glaciers as far away as Greenland, which in turn darkens the surface and increases the melting.
I understand the need to use every incident as an example of whatever policy someone wants to change, I really do. But not every incident IS an example. And when your examples do not hold, or are pretty obviously silly and superficial, you can do your cause damage. This is why examples need to be chosen carefully.
Santa Ana’s have been taking place for thousands of years, and the brush fires have been following them for thousands of years. Using them as an example is like using our earthquakes. And like an earthquake, they can come any time of year.
Not to mention that the explosive growth in SoCal has always lead to people living on the ‘edge’, right up against said fire areas. This has caused changes in the way houses are built, just like our earthquakes have lead to changes. When you have 100 god damn years of experience to work with, you will change stuff!
There is a possibility, because of our geography, that San Diego and its surrounding areas will become COOLER with the coming changes, rather than warmer. It seems to me, from my experiences, that this is true. Of course that probably won’t help on Santa Ana’s, which are not simply a local phenomenon. But that is just a guess. Just like this article.
You’re doing your advocacy a disservice.
Yes, wildfires have burned in California before. But how often have they broken out in May? This is a July-August-September phenomenon. Same thing goes for midwestern tornados in December and January. Of course tornados have ripped across Kansas, Missouri and Arkansas in years past – but in freakin’ December?!
The drought conditions currently affecting every square mile of California aren’t local phenomena, and those conditions didn’t come about in the last couple of months. Those drought conditions, in concert with hot winds from the east, have set up a tinderbox situation in California, and the state will burn hot for the next four months at least. It was modeled by climate scientists and predicted by the folks studying this. They didn’t make a lucky (or unlucky) guess; they knew it was going to happen.
I don’t know what you’re advocating for, but in the name of our society and humanity, it’s well past time we got working on this problem, which I realize flies in the face of your “possibility” and personal experience, but is perfectly in concert with the facts.
It is not unusual to have fires at this time of year. They can happen any time, any place. Our rainy season is very short, and once it’s gone we get dry fast. It’s california shrub. It burns.
You seem to have missed my point, so I will shorten it;
Our fire season is here. We will get fires. It has been thus for millennia.
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I’m a Californian native currently living in North San Diego county. I’m surrounded by these fires–although so far, they’re all miles away from me.
It is highly unusual to have fires this time of year. Fire season is August through October. Not May. Not June. Normally, May and June are cloudy (we call it “grey May” and “June gloom.”)
This is not normal, and it’s only going to get worse through the summer and into fall–into the REAL fire season. We got barely any rain this winter. Lowest San Diego rainfall since they started keeping records in 1850.
Quite frightening. And by the way, it was 80 degrees on Christmas day last year. Also not normal, although I have seen that happen once or twice before.
This fire season is markedly worse than usual, and this drought is one of the worst in recorded history. So yes, these events are unusual. Saying that any fire at all – no matter how many, how big, and what time of year – is “normal” just because there normally is some sort of fire every year in California is bizarre. We’re adults – we can look at trends and notice things. It’s allowed.
How often has it snowed in Chicago on May 16? The usual recommendation is that one is safe after May 15. Today, the noon news showed the Loop and you could barely see it for the snow storm. It snowed in the Suburbs too, just not as much. It’s unnaturally cold with temperatures about thirty degrees below normal. We have been drenched with rain for weeks. A typical lunchroom comment is, “Too bad we don’t have a pipeline to San Diego, they could use this cold water.”
Freaky things happen in La Nina years.
35 F this morning. Brrrr! Glad I took the plants in last night. Kissing fruit from my trees good-bye.
Read this:
http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2014/04/21/3428941/wildfires-increasing-climate-change/
“Just as wildfire season is getting off to a heated start, a new study has found that in the last 30 years in the western United States, both the number of fires and the area that they burn have increased. The study, published by the American Geophysical Union, looked at the 17-state region stretching from Nebraska to California. It found that wildfires over 1,000 acres in size increased by about seven fires a year from 1984 to 2011. It also found that the amount of area these fires burned increased each year at about 140 square miles, or 90,000 acres, per year — an area about the size of Las Vegas and nearly the size of Denver.”
I think I’m on pretty solid ground here. Research studies have been coming in consistently linking the droughts in the US and the increase in wildfires to climate change.
’17 state region’
I’m talking about SoCal. Your OP references SoCal.
Born in ’52, wife born in ’53. We have both been running from brushfires our whole lives.
Chicken Little comes to mind.
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Born in ’50, so I’ve got two years on ya.
Yes, we get fire season every year, August through October. May is not fire season.
However, I agree that we can’t call this climate change–yet. We need far more data to make such a determination.
Kinda starting to look like it, though.
“I’m not sure we can finger global climate change as the underlying cause of the current fires that we’re seeing in the Los Angeles area and elsewhere in California,” said climate researcher Dan Cayan of Scripps institution of Oceanography, UC San Diego and the U.S. Geological Survey.
Dominick Spracklen at the University of Leeds agrees: “It’s impossible to blame the fires that are happening at the moment on climate change.”
That being said, many scientists speculate that in a warming world the likelihood of wildfires is higher. Part of the issue is heat-induced drought. Over the next 90 years, scientists say the southwestern United States and parts of northern Mexico will experience nearly perpetual drought.
Spracklen’s research, published in a recent issue of the Journal of Geophysical Research, suggests that the area of forest burnt by wildfires in the United States will increase by more than 50 percent by 2050. Temperature was the primary factor impacting the wildfire surge, he said, though dry vegetation also played a role. The worst affected areas will be the forests in the Pacific Northwest and the Rocky Mountains. While the model focused on forests, the results did suggest a nearly 40 percent increase in burned area in the coastal shrub zone, which would include the Los Angeles region.
Linky.
I’m inclined to agree with you on the science. It’s too early to tie this particular wildfire with global climate change.
I also agree with you that wildfires have been endemic to the chapparal region of California for a very long time.
What is new, different, and growing is the fact that a large population of humans is hidebound and determined to live in large numbers and performing water-intensive activities (like swimming pools and fountains). And then they wonder why their fire insurance is so high. And accustom themselves to losing a house to fire once or twice a lifetime, just like the folks hidebound and determined to live permananently on the Outer Banks of North Carolina.
Where I have a problem with these folks is the fact that they elect a slew of nutcake Members of Congress (hey, I know Southern states have their own issues with sanity) who actively prevent the implementation of actions that would mitigate future climate change and limit the sea level rise to a mere 10 feet or so.
This.
How normal is this weather?
Laguna Beach:
Previous record 5/14 high: 83
High reached on 5/14/14: 99
Santa Ana:
Previous highest low on 5/14: 65
Lowest temperature on 5/14/14: 74
VERY not normal. This is off-the-charts recordbreaking.
I was pretty much raised in Laguna and I just never recall seeing those temps. On the other hand, I’ve been reading quite a bit on the LA aqueduct construction and Owens Valley and looking back at SoCal it’s pretty obvious that the area has always suffered from droughts BUT it’s also interesting to note that droughts in CA are historically motivators for the area to innovate its way out of a dilemma.
This:
is why we do nothing. The average human brain can’t deal with distant potential negative events. Fantasy flying cars or moon colonies in forty years and we’re on it.
Notice how anyone who starts a fire in Cal. is labeled an arsonist vs a controlled burn gone awry in Okla.
We get a LOT of arsonists. My guess is the first one (Pomerado fire) that started Tuesday (and that they put out that night) was an arson. It started in a field right next to a high school.
Perhaps climate change leads to more arsonists. Maybe the heat makes them anxious.
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Hardy har har.
Drought, one predicted effect of climate change currently in play in California, makes arsonists more deadly. Fires spread more easily in drought. Good grief, this isn’t hard.
We’ve had 6 fires in Southern California in this outbreak, and they’ve all been in Northern San Diego County (I consider Lompoc Central California). To me, that reeks of arson.
Plus the locations of the North County fires leads one to suspicion. They are almost all in the canyons that are surrounded by development, rather than way out in the East County. Almost like someone wanted to see houses burn. Out in the East County they are usually started by the wind knocking down power lines. Most of the new development where these firs are have underground lines.
It’s so predictable in SoCal. The weather changes to a Santa Ana and people start saying ‘any minute the nuts will start some fires’.
We have VERY good fire fighters. And unlike other states San Diego got the resources to really get on these. I heard Wednesday they had over 20 helicopters and two or three bombers. They are real pros, they funnel they fires up the canyons and then pound them as they climb the sides. It’s amazing to watch.
BTW, over half the helicopters were military.
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Darrel Issa is an arsonist, and it’s happening in his district, no?
Just one relevant question. How close to Darrell Issa’s district? Is it a case of Issa Benghazis while Southern California burns?
It IS his district.
The San Marcos fire (the main worry right now, it’s still burning because I can see the smoke) is fairly close to his district office. Not evacuate close, but a few miles.
His district office is in Vista, which is the city just west of San Marcos. But yeah, it’s the same district.
I’ve had local TV news on for two days. Have yet to see the bastard.
Issa’s busy fighting the bigger fire of the Benghazi cover-up. It’s FREEDOM that his constituents care about more than their houses being torched by wildfires that are an expected regular and natural disaster; whereas, Benghazi is totally unique and evidence of incompetence by senior, DEM DC officials.
Who sez?
The media?
Nice.
Most of what passes for “government” in this country is contrary to the wishes of the majority. How else to explain the consistently negative numbers in polls taken of its citizens regarding their approval of how things are being run?
Of course, the Big Fix maintains a fluid position regarding this sort of nuisance. It rides one horse until the truth begins to dawn on the media-tranced voters of the country and then it changes its tack and goes with the wind for a while. Just long enough to once again lull the voters into a false sense of power.
Like this, from the CIA-allied Washingtoon Post.
About The Washingtoon Post. CIA-allied. Always was, always will be. That Bezos/Amazon schnook? Just another frontman.
WTFU.
AG
You have a revolution to start, people to shoot and manifestos to distribute.
All of which takes time, precious time that you are wasting here on this backwater website.
So scoot along and start killing people out there in the real world, where you might make a difference.
I know that this is sophomoric snark indycam, but I am going to take you seriously.
We are not quite that far gone. Pray that it does not happen.
The U.S. as a giant, nuclear weapon-laden Syria?
Pray.
AG
In my view, one of the inconvenient truths regarding our current predicament is that between 7 and 8 Billion (that’s Billion with a B) humans alive on this planet at the same time, living as though our generations are the only ones to be concerned about, have taxed the ecosystems that keep us alive way, way too much. The planet will survive without us,(much better than with us) thank you very much. One of these days we will figure that out, but one of these days looks as though it will be too late. Hope not, but probably so.
More. More. More.
We are in a race for the first Trillionaire.
I read through all these comments, and I keep coming back to Steven’s first, mildly inaccurate statement:
This is your country ignoring climate change.
No. To the extent that any one climate event can be linked to climate change (it’s the overall trends that are indisputable, not single events), things happening this year might not have happened if we had not been ignoring climate change twenty years ago.
The consequences of our current societal refusal to do a goddamn thing about climate change aren’t being felt today. But they’ll start to become apparent in a decade, they’ll get really apparent in 20 or 30 years, and even if we turn on a dime tomorrow (hahahahahaha) they’ll last generations. And they will be incomprehensibly worse than what we’ve seen so far.
And that’s if we get our shit together now. Which we won’t.
It’s not an excuse for paralysis, but the actual science being ignored now is genuinely terrifying. And the fact that, institutionally, we don’t give a fuck makes me both angry and very, very sad.