Al Cross has some smart analysis of the situation in Kentucky where Mitch McConnell is headed to a (perhaps narrower than anticipated) victory in Tuesday’s primary. However, one thing that I think Cross misses is the tension between McConnell’s need to run up the score on Bevin and his need not to alienate Bevin’s voters to the degree that a significant percentage of them don’t turn out to vote for him in November.
In the latest Bluegrass Poll, McConnell is in a statistical dead-heat with Alison Lundergan Grimes, trailing 42%-43%. He is going to need a lot of Bevin voters if he is going to survive. Yet, he doesn’t want a weaker than expected performance in the primary because that will leave blood in the water that will attract Democratic donors and volunteers. Also, as Cross points out, a weak performance won’t help McConnell in his battle against the Senate Conservatives Fund.
So, McConnell is in a bit of a no-win situation, but at least it looks like he will survive past Tuesday.
