Reading what Tony Blair has to say about the Middle East really churns my stomach. It really does. It makes me nauseated. I’ll give him credit for visiting the region often and having some clue what he’s talking about, unlike so many of our armchair warriors here in the States. But Blair’s attitude is dripping with paternalistic condescension. His argument would be arrogant even if he hadn’t lost his right to his opinion. No one wants to listen to an arsonist’s advice about how to put out the fire he set ablaze.
Of course, Mr. Blair goes to some lengths to try to convince us that the Excellent Adventure he embarked on with Dick and George didn’t work out so badly after all, and that only the sectarianism of the Maliki government in Baghdad is responsible for the current instability in Iraq. He argues that the Syrian conflict was a contributor, too, by providing money and arms to radicals who gained battle experience. It’s as if Blair has forgotten the massive refugee crisis that the Iraq War created in Syria. Does he seriously think that having most of Saddam Hussein’s loyalists flee to Syria had no role in radicalizing the Sunni population there? Does he think that Iran’s increased influence in Iraq didn’t cause the Sunni Gulf States to freak out and begin arming jihadists to fight back?
Tony Blair lit the match that sparked a Holy War and now he wants to lecture us that we (and he) bear no responsibility for it.
The reality is that the whole of the Middle East and beyond is going through a huge, agonising and protracted transition. We have to liberate ourselves from the notion that ‘we’ have caused this. We haven’t. We can argue as to whether our policies at points have helped or not; and whether action or inaction is the best policy and there is a lot to be said on both sides. But the fundamental cause of the crisis lies within the region not outside it.
This is especially galling coming from a Brit. The British, after all, joined with the French to draw the borders of the Middle East that are bedeviling it now. The Sykes-Picot agreement took no heed of tribal or sectarian differences. And the rulers that were chosen to lead these new countries were picked less to represent the majority of the people than to be dependent on their colonial masters.
Western powers didn’t create the Sunni/Shi’a schism. They didn’t create the tribal system in the Arab world. They aren’t responsible for arming the Sunni insurgents that are overrunning Iraq. But they do bear enormous responsibility for the current crisis. And neglect and indifference are not among the reasons for their responsibility.
The fact is that as a result of the way these societies have developed and because Islamism of various descriptions became the focal point of opposition to oppression, the removal of the dictatorship is only the beginning not the end of the challenge. Once the regime changes, then out come pouring all the tensions – tribal, ethnic and of course above all religious; and the rebuilding of the country, with functioning institutions and systems of Government, becomes incredibly hard. The extremism de-stabilises the country, hinders the attempts at development, the sectarian divisions become even more acute and the result is the mess we see all over the region.
Mr. Blair acts as if the way the borders were drawn had no impact on “the way these societies have developed.” He acts as if creating dependent rulers given to despotism had nothing to do with “Islamism of various descriptions bec[oming] the focal point of opposition to oppression.”
Mr. Blair doesn’t mention it, but surely he can see the connection between our decision to endorse the Saudis’ jihadist model for harassing the godless Soviets in Afghanistan and the Saudis’ jihadist model for fighting the heretic Assad in Syria and the Shiite Maliki in Iraq.
The Saudis had enough money and motivation to create radicalized madrassas without Western permission. But we didn’t have to encourage them. We ought to have seen the threat to peace this would cause for the region and for ourselves.
Mr. Blair doesn’t acknowledge any responsibility for the current situation, but he does know that it is a mess.
Ok, so if it is that hard, why not stay out of it all, the current default position of the West? The answer is because the outcome of this long transition impacts us profoundly. At its simplest, the jihadist groups are never going to leave us alone. 9/11 happened for a reason. That reason and the ideology behind it have not disappeared.
How Mr. Blair expects us to do something without taking sides in a sectarian conflict, he doesn’t say. The troops menacing Iraq right now were funded by supposed allies in the Gulf who expect them to kill Shiites. That complicates Blair’s advice:
Where the extremists are fighting, they have to be countered hard, with force. This does not mean Western troops as in Iraq. There are masses of responses we can make short of that. But they need to know that wherever they’re engaged in terror, we will be hitting them.
Tony Blair wants us to play whack-a-mole with drones and airstrikes. Over here, we’ll strike the Sunni extremists; over there we’ll strike the Alawites. If the Iranians get out of line, we’ll strike them. Meanwhile, we’ll support the ever-shrinking group of moderates who are willing to go on the battlefield and kill not for any tribal or sectarian reason, nor out of an instinct for self-preservation, but simply to promote multiculturalism.
This is hallucinatory thinking.
Mr. Blair, put down your pen.
You’ve done enough harm.
As the soon to be departed Michele Bachmann would put it, “That them thar’s some real CHOOOOOOOOOTSPAH!!!”
Released Taliban military commander had operational ties with OBL’s Arab “055” brigade
○ Fall and Rise of the Muslim Brotherhood
○ Syria War and Iran Backed Shiite Government of Maliki to Blame
Today’s reminder, a fp story by susanhu from 2005 – NSC Chief Hadley asked Italy/France/Turkey for a Bashar Replacement.
‘Once Jr. gave me a sweater for Christmas’, he could have told us to add a cheery personal note to his whole filthy, hypocritical selfaggranizement.
Blair wishes someone had locked him up in a well lit room with finger paint…oh I meant water colors. Then he would not have to address all these issues.
When Robert Kagan endorses Hillary Clinton, you know that this country is in deep country. Blair will never see public office again; he has totally cashed in. He actually can be safely ignored like Clement Atlee was in the 1950s.
Kagan’s wife Victoria Nuland did very well at State under Hillary Clinton.
○ Al Arabya exclusive: Top ISIS leaders revealed
○ ISIS parades on outskirts of Baghdad
○ Hidden Hand of Saudi Arabia in the Levant
Cross-posted from my diary – Syria War and Iran Backed Shiite Government of Maliki to Blame.
This kind of smells to me like much of what we heard when Saddam was taken down and OBL was allegedly assassinated.
The old “we didn’t know” excuse, but now that we do know we’ll get up to speed as soon as the CIA breaks the flash drive encryption.
The NSA $40-$50 billion a year budget, along with “able” and expensive assistance from the CIA, State, and Pentagon once again demonstrates the uselessness of all their covert and intel activities.
All should realize if there had been a trial here against all of those in the USA involved in the Iraq mess. Blair would of been too afraid to make any kind of noise.
We cannot build a better future without having cleaned out corruption of the past.
Serious question. If we didn’t need oil, would the US even care about any of this?
Well, the other unacknowledged basis for Bushco’s War to Liberate Iraq’s Oil was the endless neocon concern for the “security” of our useless ally Israel.
Of course, Saddam’s WMDs and Spreadin’ Democracy were shams from the first…the formed was phony and the latter was pretty completely ignored by all involved.
Seriously, yes. Because there are fortunes to be made selling oil to third parties. It’s not the oil so much as the oil money.
Really well written article, Booman. The arrogance of colonialists is mind blowing. The lack of introspection is off the charts. So much so, one wonders if it’s deliberate.
Minor correction:
Western powers did play a role in arming the Sunni insurgents. Covert and naively assuming that the weapons would stay in Syria and take out Assad.
This is rich:
Operation Iraqi Liberation (OIL) 2.0? Liberating the liberators that turned those of us in the west into blood-thirsty destroyers and our fee-fees get hurt when called out for what we are.
Plenty colluded and/or collaboration with Bush’s Poodle:
A few names from David Ferguson at Raw Story The seven people who need to STFU about Iraq right now:
Jim Wright at StoneKettle adds more names to the list of those that should either pay for it with their own blood and money or STFU. (McCain easily made both lists.)
Let’s also demand a 90% income tax over $200,000 on every single scumbag that initiated or facilitated the destruction of Iraq and an 89% estate tax until they have paid for the war they wanted.
I’m arguing that Bush and Blair were directly responsible for the current crisis which was entirely (and predictably) set up by the 2003 invasion and unthinkable without it.
very compelling analysis, thanks.
A minnow in the sea of Neo-Cons, but still worth not forgetting because it was the official position of the elites in that sea:
From James Fallows at the Atlantic, at the Hertog Foundation (don’t know/don’t care what it is), they offering a five day course: The War in Iraq: A Case Study in Decision-making.
The Ronald Reagan Library has The War in Iraq: Interactive Decision-making. It’s for kids and there is only one right answer even if the kids figure out that the answer is stupid.
It’s for kids and there is only one right answer even if the kids figure out that the answer is stupid.
Tax cuts?
My bad, the link should have read “Grenada” not Iraq. The correct answer was “invade.”
Oh, the link was probably fine.
I was just pushing a little snark based on your line:
there is only one right answer even if the kids figure out that the answer is stupid.
Cute. But easy to miss within the context of Decision Grenada. (That’s a good ‘This American Life’ episode if you have heard it before.)
Cute. But easy to miss within the context of Decision Grenada. (That’s a good ‘This American Life’ episode if you have heard it before.)
Oh, give the guy a break—I’m sure he thinks if strategic geniuses like McFool, von Rumsfeld and Wolfowitz can get unlimited airtime for their Iraq blathering, why not him?
You’d think there would be some, I don’t know, feelings of shame or humiliation involved in this catastrophe, but these guys just don’t/can’t think this way. Blair, I’m sure, would say he “wouldn’t change a thing!” about his disastrous decisions as PM—just like Cheney, just like all of ’em. They were never wrong about anything, just betrayed by Dems and fifth column, er, progressives.
To long for the days of the Ottoman Empire is a pretty damning indictment of the West’s efforts to “reform” the region. It’s getting pretty untenable to believe that “we” can make anything better for these peoples, (especially via more rockets and artillery!) and I definitely don’t think many of them have any illusions or delusions that “we” can. Sorry, Tony. Now, back to the bank!
Not clear to me why they all want to jump in and argue for Bush’s war; are they that stupid? don’t they realize reminding everyone of how truly awful those years were is not going to help them with voters?
Preemptive defense in case the fall of governmental entities in Iraq leads western authorities to look back at their criminal misdeeds. That the Hague investigation into British ‘war crimes’ in Iraq could be expanded to include the architects of the illegal war. And bust open the documents withheld by the Chilcot Inquiry.
http://talkingpointsmemo.com/livewire/hillary-iraq-war-vote-explanation
So, in 2007 up through 2014,
But, but, McCain said that the war was won in 2007 (not that he exactly made that claim in 2007-2008 when he was running for POTUS).
I hear Toronto may have an opening for mayor — perhaps Canada would consider granting Hillary instant citizenship now that Yankee Cruz has renounced his.
seems to me she’s going in circles and showing great lack of candor; imo she’s in trouble; don’t think she is inspiring confidence
Huge numbers of Democrats are already committed to her and nothing will change their minds. (Some are even already screaming sexism when a criticism is gender neutral.)
I find her an exceedingly boring speaker. That’s in part because she seems to be tone-deaf, literally and figuratively. That could also account for her frequently inappropriate affect that is disconnected from the topic/issue or her non-verbal gestures and facial expression.
yes, tone deaf and inappropriate affect. I wouldn’t write off another candidate at this stage, alot can happen in 12 months. furthermore, it’s not just that the entire current discussion is bringing everything back so vividly but the issue that must be addressed, climate change, is bearing down on us. does she have anything to say about it? are the Clintons even relevant on climate change?
Agree that “A lot [one of my pet peeves] can happen in 12 months.” But how often do events that are external (or seemingly external) to Presidential candidates or their respective parties significantly impact and alter their fortunes? The whole US economy was collapsing just prior to the 2008 general election and how much did that shift the projected outcome? Less than five percent. And his opponent was running with a bozo. (A Democrat was always going to win that election. The open question was by how much.)
Looking forward to 2016, Democrats seem to be approaching it as if it will be similar to 1988 and 2000. More personality driven than issues driven. “Obamacare” won’t be an issue because it will still be slightly positive by then. (Health care as a major national issue will reemerge later.) As much as the GOP would like to make it about change, they have nothing at the public policy level that can win a majority. An economic deterioration and continued Iraq/ME strife won’t help candidate Clinton as she’s poorly positioned on both, but neither helps a GOP candidate either. (Departing from the official GOP corporate and imperialistic line won’t secure the nomination for Rand Paul nor enhance the GOP brand.)
A GOP crazie isn’t going to beat Hillary. A GOP non-crazie can.
I’m thinking about the primary. I assume the dem will win, provided we put in the hours. who can they run? Jeb or Mitt [being talked about now]. the issue is the dem primary.
Here’s the deal. Partisan Democrats, who tend to dominate both the early political oxygen and early primary contests, get in line for the one they believe can win the general election. It’s a bit different on the other side of the aisle with the crazies dominating their early primaries before it becomes apparent that Pat Robertson, Huckabee, Santorum has no change in the general and they rush to rally around a Bob Dole.
There will not be any other viable Democratic contenders unless the Hillary is electible bubble can be pierced. (It’s somewhat worse than that right now as this people are deluding themselves into seeing a Hillary landslide.) If the GOP nominates their version of Dukakis, Hillary will win. One term. The shelf-life of long resume with no accomplishments, and old and tone-deaf is short-lived.
Reading what Tony Blair has to say
about the Middle Eastreally churns my stomach.Paternalistic Condescension seems to be a common attitude among the British in media in my experience, so why not politics…?