The Chicago Tribune was a long laughing stock for that headline blunder.
Understanding how the Tribune blew it has probably consumed more ink and attention than how “Truman Beat Dewey.” And there are lessons in that from the SCOTUS decision in Harris v. Quinn and the ALEC anti-public employees unions legislation that has been put in place by a few Republican governors. Scott Walker has so far succeeded in beating back the unions. John Kasich was overwhelming rebuffed by the voters in a referendum on this question three years ago. Yet, Kasich is projected to win re-election this year.
So, how did Truman defeat Dewey? While the race was close in a few states, it wasn’t close in the Electoral College 303 to 189. “Dewey Defeats Truman” was the outcome that the Chicago Tribune publisher wanted. (Not unlike Fox in 2000.)
What often goes unmentioned about the 1948 election is that Truman not only won, but Democrats regained control of the Senate and House. Not by small amounts but large ones. The House went from 248 Republicans and 185 Democrats to 171 Republicans and 263 Democrats, and Democrats retained the majority in both houses in 1950. (The Tribune also reported in its 1948 election results coverage that Republicans had retained majority control of both houses; so, it was a triple strike-out blunder for the Tribune.)
So, what changed the outcomes in that election from what some (many?) expected? The 1946 mid-terms were a disaster for Democrats and not unlike the 2010 mid-terms. How did Truman and Democrats recover so quickly in two years? Truman did rail against what he called “the do nothing Congress.” But if obstruction from Republicans was enough to flip control of Congress, why didn’t it work in 2012? Why is it projected not to work in the 2014 House races?
However, it wasn’t exactly a “do nothing Congress.” They were eager beavers in passing The Taft-Hartley Act, one of many anti-union bills that the “do nothing Congress” passed during their two years in power . Truman vetoed it and Congress over-rode his veto. The CIO was particularly active in the 1948 election on behalf of Democrats. Twenty-five percent of the workforce was unionized, and other than postal workers, most union workers were in the private-sector. Today, private-sector union workers are down to 6.7% nationwide. A once potent political force has been decimated.
Even though Truman and the new Congress failed to repeal Taft-Hartley (the first of many betrayals of unionized working men and women by Democrats), labor remained strong for the next couple of decades. (Congressional Democrats won big in 1956 and 1958 and did so with a popular GOP President.) In part because as private-sector union members declined, the “little Wagner Act” in NYC initiated a period of public sector union growth. Except for the AFSCME locals such as the Memphis Sanitation workers(currently under privatization threat) and UAW under Walter Reuther, organized US labor gradually became more AFL than CIO. What does this mean for electoral politics in the 21st Century?
As of this writing, it’s curious how different two governors implementing ALEC approved legislation, including public employee union bashing, are faring. First there’s Scott Walker in the purple-blue state of WI. After years of demonstrations and push-back attempts by unionized public employees, and as reported by RawStory
Both candidates received 46 percent support among registered voters, with 6 percent undecided, the Marquette Law School Poll taken from May 15 to18 found. The previous poll in March showed Walker leading Burke 48 percent to 41 percent.
Still time for Burke to pull it out, but it’s going to be a tough slog because Walker’s disapproval numbers are oddly not that high and seems close to set in concrete amongst voters. Plus Walker will have scads of money from well-heeled rightwing corporate elites (both WI based and out-of-state). Burke has public employee unions.
The other ALEC approved governor is in a deep red state. A state with below average union worker participation. Although not scraping bottom at 3.3% with South Carolina. The low union membership participation rate didn’t stop this governor from going after unions as relentlessly as Scott Walker. There were push-backs from unions, but it’s tough with such a small member base to roar loudly and gain national attention as those in WI did.
He’s a shoo-in to win the Republican primary next month. But oddly, his approval numbers are low. So, low that against both of two contenders for the Democratic nomination he’s behind by six points. He has time (and likely plenty of money) to win in November, but how can it be that he has a steeper uphill climb than Scott Walker? Who is this governor? Sam Brownback in the state of Kansas. Here’s recent information on the state of organized labor in Kansas. And Brownback poll numbers. An incumbent Republican governor in Kansas could be in trouble? What’s the matter with Kansas?
Thinking about all of this, I became interested in looking at union membership in both the private and public sectors by state and discovered that the numbers aren’t as easy to find as I expected. The best BLS reference chart by state lumps all employed workers and union members together. A report from The Center for Economic Progress breaks down the private and public sector union membership rates. Using the data from these two reports, here’s what WI and KS (in thousands for 2012) look like:
Kansas
Emp 1,248
Pvt 1,120 (unionized 40; rate: 4.0% [2011 rate: 4.6%])
Pub 228 (unionized 45; rate 18% [2011 rate: 19.7%])
Pub/total emp. 18%
Wisconsin
Emp 2,606
Pvt 2,232 (unionized 154; rate: 6.9% [2011 rate: 7.0%])
Pub 372 (unionized 139; rate: 37% [2011 rate: 50%])
Pub/total emp. 14%
As Corbett is the only incumbent GOP Governor that appears to be in trouble (and he didn’t go on an ALEC rampage but the public is angry about funding cuts to schools and there’s the Sandusky matter), does PA look any different?
Pennsylvania
Emp 5,454
Pvt 4,798 (unionized 379; rate: 7.9% [2011 rate: 9.3%])
Pub 654 (unionized 357; rate: 55% [2011 rate: 52%])
Pub/total emp. 12%
How about Ohio:
Emp 4,800
Pvt 4,179 (unionized 351; rate: 8.4% – [2011 rate: 8.6%])
Pub 637 (unionized 253; rate: 40% [2011 rate: 43%])
Pub/total emp. 13%
A few observations. Unionization rates in both the public and private sectors dropped in all four of these states between 2011 and 2012 except in the PA public sector. It was already so low in Kansas that it’s not a factor. However, public sector employment to total employment in Kansas is higher than in the other states and it’s possible that Brownback attacking those that are unionized has increased the feelings of vulnerability for the public sector workers and they’ve had enough of him.
There were almost no bright spots for private sector union workers between 2011 and 2012 and the steepest drop was in PA. OTOH, that increase in public employee unionization is a possible countervailing trend which also exists in KY and MI. (KY private sector also increased.) And Corbett got push-back from not restoring school funding. (Coincidence that Sen McConnell (R-KY) and Gov Snyder (R-MI) are vulnerable?) If not for the Sandusky matter, would Corbett be in a toss-up or better situation for his re-election?
Probably. The union factor in OH, while deteriorating, is currently a bit stronger than in PA and Kasich seemed to be cruising to another victory. But wait – that prediction may be a bit premature. TPM Poll: Ohio Guv Race In Dead Heat. That poll may be an outlier. However, it does conform to how hinky statewide elections get when private sector unionization rates approach a dead zone and public sector rates decline in the same direction. (At the lower end of the dead zone, there might be another hinky zone.)
Workers may struggle to connect the dots between unions and income/wealth inequality, but they aren’t getting any help with this from the Democratic Party. (A political party fully in bed with the non-unionized, corporate charter school movement.) ALEC and Scott Walker appear to have gotten the formula correct for corporate power. And if it can be done in WI, it can happen in a few other places.