Polls this far out from an election aren’t dispositive of much of anything, but it’s telling that Gov. Mary Fallin of Oklahoma has only a narrow lead over her Democratic challenger while Gov. Andrew Cuomo of New York is absolutely trouncing his Republican opponent.
I have a theory that when the Republican Party finally collapses as a national party it will happen suddenly and without much warning. It could happen as early as this November, although I am not ready to make that prediction just yet. If it does happen this year, though, this is what it will look like. Incumbent Republican governors will lose across the board, from Florida to Maine to Pennsylvania to Michigan to Ohio to Wisconsin. At the same time, the GOP will fail to pick up more than one or two Senate seats, failing to win seats even in Deep South states like Georgia, Arkansas, and Louisiana. And they’ll lose control of the House by surrendering seats that are designed to be invulnerable. The popular vote will run heavily against them and the damage will only be mitigated by the way the maps have been drawn and the tendency of liberals to cluster together in urban areas.
Then, the party will fail to coalesce around a candidate who is willing to make terms with where the country actually is on women’s issues, immigration, education, climate, or gay rights, leading them to nominate someone as far outside of the mainstream as the party faithful. Think Ted Cruz, Rick Santorum, Rand Paul, or even Paul Ryan.
This would probably lead to the kind of Electoral College defeat experienced by Walter Mondale or George McGovern, with numerous “red states” crossing over to vote for sanity. And, at this point, the GOP would be reduced back down to where they were in the mid to early sixties. To come back, they’d need the left to fracture in 1968 fashion.
This is where we’re headed. It could come as soon as November, although it could also be delayed into the latter half of the twenties. A lot will depend on economic and international conditions on each coming election day, and the GOP has a lot of artificial advantages plus a willingness to engage in various forms of suppression and chicanery. But the game is nonetheless up. The best movement conservatism can hope for at this point is a flash in the pan confluence of bad news timed at just the right moment to give them the unlikeliest of national victories. This country has totally moved on from their ideology.
… but it’s telling that Gov. Mary Fallin of Oklahoma has only a narrow lead over her Democratic challenger while Gov. Andre Cuomo of New York is absolutely trouncing his Republican opponent.
Interesting they didn’t poll the primary, since Teachout is on the ballot. I guess we’ll just have to wait until the election to find out how popular Andy really is.
They polled Teachout’s favorables, though, and
‘http://www.capitalnewyork.com/article/albany/2014/07/8549292/siena-poll-cuomo-keeps-37-point-lead-o
ver-astorino”>86% of the electorate hasn’t heard of her. Yet. I’m not too hopeful. She’s really pretty compelling if anybody ever gets to see her.
Sorry for the messed-up code. Lunchtime typing with one hand.
All I remember her for is the Puma shit.
Puma? Are you sure? Here she is as an Obama contributor in February 2008.
Way to set your feet, Booman. 10-15 years. Or maybe sooner. Nice.
15 years ago there was no 9/11 nor was there a financial collapse. You cannot predict what is going to go down between today and 2020. No way.
The Republican party will “collapse?” Please. Not as long as the Good Cop/Bad Cop political fix is still in it won’t, and I don’t see any movement in that direction from the PermaGov’s weathervane, the mass media. Not even close. It’ll be fix business as usual until some as yet dreamed of calamity crashes the whole works. And when that happens? When that happensboth parties will go down. Together, in the leaky ship of
intestate…errrr, ahhhh, state…that they have built since the JFK assassination.Bet on it.
When?
I dunno.
But it’s coming.
Watch.
AG
You complain about Booman making a wishy-washy prediction and then you say:
Bet on it.
When?
I dunno.
Way to step out on that limb brave prognosticator!
Better to admit unpredictability regarding the massive forces that are at work on this globe than prattle on about “when” things might or might not happen, Reston. I am quite consistent about one thing. Karma is real, and everyone eventually reaps whatever it is that they have sown.
Watch.
AG
From 1959-1981 the Democrats frequently had over 60 members in the Senate and never fewer than 54. From 1964 to 1967, they had 67 or 68 seats.
The GOP didn’t go away. But it had completely collapsed. You know what happened next.
Even then the “Democratic” part of the Democratic Senate caucus was maybe 40-45 seats. That back was when Eugene McCarthy and John Stennis caucused together.
For that matter, a small part of the GOP caucus might as well have been Democrats — Ed Brooke, Jacob Javits, etc…
yeah, but there is NO Nixon in the wings. The crazies have been/are/will be attacking “moderates”, tearing down anyone in the R party could pull business and social types together.
The social (Walmart R’s) are deeply suspicious of the business types (country club R’s). The business types have the thinnest possible veil over the utter contempt for “the base”.
WHEN the party goes down, it goes down in three pieces: Social, Business, and Racist.
My hope is that we’re nearing the tipping point, and that perhaps 2016 will be when Republicans lose their power to filibuster.
But any number of events could make 2016 a nightmare.
In a discussion with the company strategic planner (he liked to kick things around with me for a variety of reasons — mostly because I was the only non-conventional thinker on staff), we reached a point where I summarized what he’d been saying: “So, we’re going with the ‘we suck less’ plan.” He nodded yes.
Technically, this company didn’t suck less than its competitors. But a few “black swans” took down a few of them and scooping up some of the better talent from those that failed made the “we suck less” position more credible.
So you’re saying they’re about to fall right out of the Overton Window?
I’d be happy to administer a kick on the backside to speed them on their way.
Actually, I think he’s saying they’ve probably already fallen outside the window, but we only take pictures out of that window every couple of years so we can’t tell for sure yet.
Should have mentioned Nathan Deal’s poll numbers.
Reaper GOV Fallin could very well lead the way if there is a major fracking earthquake or another tornado that kills small children in schools she denied shelters. Or one more mass shooting (in Texas, Ga, Fla, or some other gun nut state) of small children that would have been prevented by a simple background check.
Sometime in the next 16 years the movement conservative craziness of the Republican party will collapse of its own weight and ability to make enemies. But like a mastadon hunt, the elephant will collapse suddenly in a heap and it will be as unexpected as Reagan’s win over Jimmy Carter. Because the brackets on Carter’s term–McGovern and Mondale–showed that the Democratic Party was crazy.
Nice to hear that Republicans are going to succeed in either starving me or killing me before I die. Unless I make it to age 84. And I will have to watch cowardly Democrats keep their powder dry and the lobbying checks coming.
And now with no good alternative countries to move to even if I could afford it. Harper, Cameron, Hollande, Merkel, Abbott — what a globally sorry lot.
Just confirms my sense that the establishment Democrats are not about pushing the mastadon off the cliff this year. Might offend their large donors.
You could add Costa Rica, depending on your sense of adventure.
Also, Governor Sam Brownback of Kansas is in trouble regarding his reelection.
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=0023d453-4961-455d-b23a-15124b96a205
It’s not unusual for complex systems that seem to be in a stable state to suddenly flip to another stable state. This was an idea that comforted me during the dark days of the Cheney regency, and I actually thought we were seeing the beginning of such a state change in 2006.
The fact is, something will have to change, since a nation this big can’t go on forever without a legislative body. Is it likely that the Republicans will be rewarded for breaking it? Stupider things have happened in democracies, I guess, but I’d prefer to believe we’re not really a nation of nihilists.
Yes. When you’ve heard ‘That government is best, that doesn’t’ for a generation and a bit, someone who comes along and breaks the government is a hero, not a villain.
Like Ceaușescu, baby!
(Flirting with Godwin, I know)
Aww, c’mon, America is so invested in the two party system that the GOP won’t be allowed an apocalyptic collapse. Despite their current insane rhetoric they still have a voice, don’t they?
The Democrats and the Republicans need each other to deflect the blame for their failures.
The DNC never wants to be the party that executes on the decisions made by their corporate benefactors w/ no foil or direct opposition. Who will they blame then? The pathetic right? Not if the bulk of the house and senate is all DNC in the next decade.
I don’t blame any particular political figure for our downfall, I just think this is the nature of our political landscape and how it was designed. The more we keep pretending of a rapturous political era of peace,prosperity and equality, the harder it will be to accept the reality that is materializing before us.
That isn’t the nature of humanity, humanity is an engine that feeds on fabric of society as a whole. Corruption is the oil that keeps the engine running. We really don’t want to see the blueprint of “Humanity” or for that matter “Nature of life” It isn’t pretty…it will NEVER be pretty.
You want a glimpse? Watch old clips of Jay Leno Man on the Street, that’s our future…….you won’t find it on a blog w/ rational discussion in political discourse.
Instead you might hear in 2018 “Like Oh my god, Hillary Clinton is such a imperial president, she needs to be impeached”
That’s what the GOP is best at, making you forget their diabolical transgressions. Well, not so much the people paying attention to politics, the people who pay attention 2 weeks before the presidential election happens.
If you want to fall flat on your face, just have blogs keep telling us about this grand moment of a political new age.
If you ask me, I think the republicans want Hillary. It is going to make the Democrats look bad because she probably is going to be even more controlled than Obama regarding how much in finances she will have to raise. Then they just point & say “Look at that puppet”
Think of it as Bill Clinton all over again except w/out the sex scandal. And of course, Bill Clinton will come out and give the GOP plenty of soundbites to play. “How DARE You say that about Hillary”
you’re saying America has power over this situation?
when I read stuff like this is to suggest that it is based on a terrible misreading of the state of the economy. Things are not back to normal. Jobs are tough to find, and for most getting ahead is harder than it was.
The Democrats will own this economy in 2016. They will have owned 8 years of it, even if they didn’t cause it.
My own view is that 2016 will be an uphill struggle for Democrats. The minimum wage isn’t going to save us.
We need an agenda comparable in size to the scale of the problem – and we don’t have one and even if we did the GOP would block it.
The economy is improving and most of us still blame Bush for the problems. Either one of those facts might continue long enough to get us through ’16. http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2014/02/06/cnn-poll-is-bush-still-to-blame-for-economy/
The poll is from February though the point is taken, for now people blame Bush. But will this still be the case over 2 years from now?
One other problem, the probability of a recession between now and 2016 is probably better than 50%.
They don’t understand that the economy is worse than it has ever been. I think it is because they are in this bubble, the same bubble that the conservatives have designed and encased themselves in.
All you have to do is turn on the media and see how slowly they sway the perception back to the conservative ideology.
Why will the democrats get the blame? The mouthpiece is too loud for the democrats to battle. Money can make a lot of things disappear.
2016 is going to work against Hillary. She probably will win, but she isn’t of social media generation. The republicans are going to make so much goddamn money off Anti Hillary propaganda. This is what they are waiting for, f- a presidency, what about a punching bag that is in the headlines every single damn day? That’s bank every single minute. Obama is boring compared to Hillary… Hillary has 30 years of political talking points. Maybe more when she is president.
What is to be optimistic when our political elections are transforming into similar business model like ” Southeby auctions” ?
I think some commenters on this blog need to watch the Bugs/ Daffy Duck cartoon when Daffy starts jumping up n down in Ali Baba cave swimming in treasure saying “I’m rich wa hoo I’m rich” that’s what this “GOP Is doomed” message reminds me of.
There’s a lot of upper middle class in the progblogs and they’re doing OK. Even those not in the upper middle class are at least better-educated than average and so doing better than average. The progblog attitude towards the economy – not great but not really bad either – is probably a fair reflection of their average experience.
Not to belittle those here who aren’t doing well – I know there are a few – but we’re doing better than the general population overall, and it colors our attitudes.
The progressive blogs are pretty weak on economics anyway. Very little from Dailykos on economics gets picked up elsewhere, and there is nothing that is new there on the subject.
Indeed. I feel like most commenters here understand that, though, don’t they? Not talking about blogosphere in general, just here.
Anyone can read unemployment numbers, and then couple those with median wages and that most “new” jobs are low-paying with no benefits. Right?
I suppose we’re all susceptible to bubble mentality, though.
I think it is ridiculous to assume Hillary will be the candidate, as it is truly ridiculous that Hillary would be the candidate.
The governorship situation is looking pretty good, but the Congressional situation is not. Generic polling for the House is still worse than the 2012 results, predicting a loss of seats, and while we’re leading in enough Senate races to hold it, there’s a lot of close races and we’re seeing some close polling in races like Colorado, Iowa, and Michigan we really can’t afford to lose.
No doubt a lot of this is driven by the fact than most Americans don’t actually know who’s doing what in the government. In that Pew typology poll, less than half of the population could correctly identify that the Republicans are running the House and the Dems the Senate and statistically, about half the people who gave the right answer just guessed right.
I agree the Republicans could have a catastrophic collapse very soon. IMO if we could just get the public to realize that the Republicans in the House voted repeatedly to voucherize Medicare, it would all be over. But it seems the Dems aren’t bothering with getting the facts out. The only candidate I’ve heard go after the Medicare angle is Grimes, and McConnell is in the Senate and has lots of wriggle room (I don’t think he actually voted for it, just supported it verbally).
“Then, the party will fail to coalesce around a candidate who is willing to make terms with where the country actually is on women’s issues, immigration, education, climate, or gay rights, leading them to nominate someone as far outside of the mainstream as the party faithful. Think Ted Cruz, Rick Santorum, Rand Paul, or even Paul Ryan.”
The Western Conservative Summit met here in Denver over the weekend.* The usual cast of nuts came to speak. There was also a straw poll for 2016. Ben Roberts, Ted Cruz and Sarah Palin were the top vote getters in that order.
*Drove me frickin’ nuts that the Denver Post reported that the above three along with Bobby Jindahl, Michele Bachmann and a few others were speaking and casually wrote about them as though they were serious thinkers. Gah!
Here’s a crazy question. After he wins (if he wins) the November election, will Thad Cochran be the first Southern Republican Senator to cross over to the Democratic Party?
It can happen and it did indeed happen with our neighbors to the north. In the Canadian federal elections of September 1993, that consigned Reagan clone Brian Mulroney and his whole party to the dustbin of history.
“… the Progressive Conservatives suffered the most lopsided defeat for a governing party at the federal level, and among the worst ever suffered by a governing party in the Western world. They lost more than half their vote from 1988 and all but two of their 156 seats. Though they recovered slightly in the 1997 election, the Progressive Conservatives lost seats in 2000 and would never be a major force in Canadian politics again. In 2003, the Progressive Conservative Party disappeared entirely when it merged with the larger Canadian Alliance party to create the new Conservative Party of Canada.”
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Canadian_federal_election,_1993
It’s harder for a majority party in a two-party system to just disappear, though. Even if the Republicans get reduced to a 30-40 Senate/150-180 House rump in Congress, that’s still a pretty large talent pool and lucrative name brand to build a new party upon. And I really doubt that the money men/neocons, libertarians, and religious right are just going to melt off into the night like the racial supremacists and socialists did anytime soon.
It’d just be easier to try to re-brand the Republican Party — a sincere re-brand, mind — than to try to create a new party from scratch.
The same thing might happen with Harper two decades later too…
I predict later than sooner. The Republican Party of the New Deal Coalition and the Democratic Party of the New Right Coalition threatened to collapse nationally. This incarnation of the Republican Party is still polling very strong in the Rockies, South, and Appalachia. And unless 2014-2016 goes extremely poorly for them, they’ll probably at least have enough seats to filibuster and/or the House.
Not to mention that the demographics of the Democratic Party show that unless we make a historical turnaround never-before seen in this country the Democrats are going to take regular drubbings at midterm elections. Even if a Hillary Clinton-led Democratic Party somehow got us 60+ seats in the Senate and control of the House, it’s still possible for the Republican Party in 2018 to muscle their way back into parity.
This is of course assuming that black swans or scandals even out between the parties during this time period. Like BooMan said, a major Democratic scandal, recession, terrorist attack, riot, bungled overseas policy or sudden financial collapse changes the calculus. Considering that the Democratic Party still listens to idiotic moderates and centrists who think that the declining deficit is a good thing and doesn’t need to be widened with tax cuts or government spending this is a pretty good bet.
It’s not about listening, it’s about the fact that we need their votes to pass stuff.
So at some point I would expect the GOP will realize it needs to move toward “centrist,” actually liberal, candidates in order to have anything like a real shot outside hillbilly country.
Eisenhower, Nixon, or Rockefeller Republicans.
Remember the Ripon Society?